BB: $1947.50 (Hero)
Vilian is a decent reg. I have about 8k hands on villain. He 3bets 14% (PP, AT+, connectors). His CB in 3b pots is 51% and he c/r turn 6%. We have been playing for about 3h and I called his turn/river c/r twice and both times he had the goods. He does not tend to play his draws aggressively as a c/r and especially not 200bb deep.
I therefore thought his check on the flop meant that he either has a monster here and is trapping or a hand he does not feel comfortable playing for stacks (AJ, AT, KQ, KK, JJ, etc). Given that I don't want to play my hand for stacks here and flop is dry I decided to check behind and go for 2 streets of value on an innocuous turn. When he checked the turn to me I think he can still have the above range of hands, but is more likely to have the weaker part of it (AJ, AT, KQ, etc) as I would check behind quite a few hands and he would therefore lose value by checking.
The c/r therefore took me a bit by surprise and folding my hand here is obv very exploitative (as he can then take this line with any OESD, FD, etc), but on the other hand I can't really come up with a decent amount of hands that he would take this line with besides 2 pair+.
What would your play be on the turn?