Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. 

SB: $78.15 (156.3 bb)

BB: $50 (100 bb)

CO: $98.82 (197.6 bb)

Hero (BTN): $49.75 (99.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN

CO folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.25) Ts Kh 8s (2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $0.79, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.71

Turn: ($9.25) Qc (2 players)

BB bets $6.47, Hero calls $6.47

River: ($22.19) As (2 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $33...

Assumptions:

BT

-opening very wide

-cbetting high freq

-not folding much to xr

BB

-defending high frequency

-xr-ing high freq

-betting turn with whole xr range

BT PFR:

BB XR:

BT Call Turnbet:

River Equity Breakdown:

Ideas:

- If BB is never checking a flush we should be over-betting whole range

- How often does BB need to be checking a flush for us to balance our betting range?

Considerations:

- our equity is 75% = checking back our whole range .75*22 = 16.5

- if BB is never checking a flush and always folding then EVoverbetting = 22

How often does BB have to x a Flush (check/call a flush) for us to balance a betting range with flushes and bluffs?

This is where I'm getting a little stuck.

BB has a flush 12% of the time

BT has a flush 15.5% of the time

BT has some lower flushes - both have nut flushes

Maybe I'm over-complicating it but hitting a wall here - is there a way of modelling this without it getting too complex?  Any input appreciated.  Thanks.