V is 50yr old very wealthy splashy guy with 100k on his wrist at 5/10. He is loose action on early streets, but tight on turn and river when big bets can potentially go in. He loves to x/r all nutty hands and doesn't apply much pressure with draws. I have seen him flop two sets and one top two in a hu, 4 way, 4 way, pot and he went for x/r on all three flops, and missed each time and took x/r line on turn. He opened a hand and I three bet 78 hh vs him and he calls. flop is k98ccc he checked, i checked, turn is 7, he bet 220 into 250 i called. river is the 7 of clubs and he x/c my 520 bet with AcQx! the nut flush!

The hand:
Guy opens to 40, we 3bet to 140 on btn with qq, 3k eff stacks. he flats from the bb, and opr folds. flop is 953 rainbow, he donks 150, we call. turn is full rainbow king. he donks 280, we?

ofc it is standard to call down here and it fits gto. however, given our read that he never has two pair+ on flop, he will never three bet bluff turn, and that he will likely underbluff rivers... i ran the crev of a "valuebluff" to 660 on turn with his range: (aa-tt,88-66, 44, 22, aks, kqs-k9s, q9s, j9s,t9s,98s,79s,87s,76s,75s,65s,64s,54s,ako,kqo) pot on turn is 625, he donks 280, we raise to 660... bb (villain's) ev came out to be 462$ with us using valuebluff, and $469 if he OVERBLUFFS rivers. if he is playing optimally his ev goes up to 478$, and if he never bluffs 502$...

what do you guys think of my assumptions on his range? anything i may have missed? the result was he showed down 44 (i didnt play the hand, but another reg at table played it) (for river action for our value bluff i put check down.) any merits to raising the flop given we are 99.9% sure we have the nuts unless he has KK AA (which he will also very likely check and allow us to bluff)?