Missed river value?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Missed river value?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $32.62
SB: $12.85
BB: $10.47
UTG: $10.20
MP: $30.20 (Hero)
CO: $52.11
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with T 9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BN raises to $1.05, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75
Flop ($2.25) Q 4 8
Hero checks, BN bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40
Turn ($5.05) Q 4 8 J
Hero bets $3.21, BN calls $3.21
River ($11.47) Q 4 8 J Q
Hero checks, BN checks
Final Pot MP wins and shows a straight, Eight to Queen.
MP wins $10.95
Rake is $0.52

So at the time, I hated the board pairing on the river as we were pretty deep and I didn't want to either bet-call or bet-fold. In reviewing after, I think I could have gone for thin value here as on reflection it's pretty hard for him to have a boat, but not impossible. We have no history together and I had no sample size for stats, but 3 betting QJ is possible and QQ and JJ, maybe occasionally 88. Not sure jacks would Cbet that board though and QJ might well re-raise turn?

Also my range gets hit pretty hard on this board so I think a bluff re-raise on the river is even less likely, so I could bet the straight for value and be prepared to fold or call a raise depending on sizing? Of course villain could bluff missed clubs, particularly AK of clubs or any AK that called turn when picked up equity, but I still think it's a hard spot to bluff re-raise.

Interested in what people think?

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