NL 100 Gutshot with Flush draw on turn in 3bet pot OOP

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NL 100 Gutshot with Flush draw on turn in 3bet pot OOP

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $199.00
SB: $170.49 (Hero)
BB: $126.68
UTG: $106.23
MP: $121.57
CO: $56.94
Villain is aggressive multi tabling reg running 26/21 with a 14.6% 3bet from BB
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is SB with A 3
4 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, BB raises to $7.00, Hero calls $4.00
Standard defend especially against small 3bet
Flop ($14.00) J 5 4
Hero checks, BB bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00
x/c seems close with gut shot and bdfd on board I think he cbets with high frequency. Anyone prefer x/r on the flop?
Turn ($28.00) J 5 4 K
Hero checks, BB bets $21.00, Hero raises to $156.49 and is all in, BB calls $91.68 and is all in
We pick up flush draw as well though this card is better for his range than ours. The check shove is profitable if he folds around 30% of the time based on our rough equity versus his range and the stack sizes. Not sure how we can really get close to making a decision in game about whether this frequency is close to correct as we have to make so many assumptions about his range and how he plays the different parts of it. Given that our draw is nutted and the 2 is also a clean out is calling reasonable expecting river to get barreled both as a bluff and with worse for value when we hit.
River ($297.17) J 5 4 K 9
Final Pot SB lost and shows high card Ace.
BB wins and shows two pair, Kings and Jacks.
BB wins $250.56
Rake is $2.80

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