NL10z Turn X/R range OOP in 3b pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL10z Turn X/R range OOP in 3b pot

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $38.40
SB: $10.10 (Hero)
BB: $24.28
UTG: $7.69
MP: $11.38
CO: $31.48
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with 6 5
2 folds, CO raises to $0.25, BN folds, Hero raises to $1.00, BB folds, CO calls $0.75
Flop ($2.10) J 3 7
Hero bets $1.38, CO calls $1.38
Overall probably a board I wouldnt cbet too often. Think my hand makes a great case to be bet, one of the worst FDs I could have and doesnt have SDV along with a gutshot
Turn ($4.86) J 3 7 4
Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero raises to $7.72 and is all in, CO folds
Pretty nice to hit the nuts obviously, I figured its a great board to play X/R here since we could just make it look like we have a missed AK and could expect enough value/protection bets from villain since hes also a reg in these pools (like T9s, 98s, weaker 7x, Jx, some FDs). I would even expect his slowplayed sets to play this way. Im just not sure whether my hand is some sort of overplay, seeing that I would also have the FD going with it.. heres a list with my arguments

Pro X/R:
- We get calls from value hands that may not call on certain runouts (donking OTR on a diamond will look like a flush too much and therefore we get a call max with some lower sizing)
- We get value from stronger FDs that are also calling the shove (combo draws or OC+FD, assumes he bets those also like that OTT)
- We get an additional protection bet in from weaker holdings/bluffs in his range

Negative X/R:
- We lose value from middling type of hands that fold v a raise that could maybe try and bluffcatch if we donk OTR on non-diamonds (rare on my stakes, but this reg could be capable of it)
- We take away the opportunity for villain to continue bluffing with T9s/98s OTR. Imo, players usually underbluff rivers though on my stakes, but I can see him taking stabs OTR as Ive seen one time in a pot with him

Im somewhat more on the side of X/R instead of slowplaying it.
Final Pot SB wins $8.06

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