NL200 Bluff this river?
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 Bluff this river?
BN: $180.57
SB: $180
BB: $402.96 (Hero)
UTG: $200
HJ: $328.11
CO: $477.08
SB: $180
BB: $402.96 (Hero)
UTG: $200
HJ: $328.11
CO: $477.08
Villain is 26/23 over 285 hands with an EP PFR of 27%, F3B of 50%
Flop c-bet of 79%
Flop c-bet of 79%
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
4
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $4
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $4
3-betting this hand might also be an option
Flop
($13.00)
A
3
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $8,
Hero raises to $24,
UTG calls $16
I have a GS+BDFD and given villain's wide EP PFR of 27% and high flop c-bet of 79% I decide to go ahead and C/R. I could have 33/88/A3s/A8s here.
Turn
($61.00)
A
3
8
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets $40,
UTG calls $40
When villain called my flop bet I it could be an Ace very often, or a diamond draw, since I don't block any of those combos.
I think he could still have all set combos in his range though (AA/33/88) as he might not always 3-bet those OTF (especially 33).
That being said, I have 5-high, and the majority of the time if I bet this turn, I'll get to see/bluff a river card as well. If I get jammed on it's not a disaster since my hand was losing anyways.
I think he could still have all set combos in his range though (AA/33/88) as he might not always 3-bet those OTF (especially 33).
That being said, I have 5-high, and the majority of the time if I bet this turn, I'll get to see/bluff a river card as well. If I get jammed on it's not a disaster since my hand was losing anyways.
River
($141.00)
A
3
8
J
3
(2 Players)
The river 3 is really bad for me because it takes away a lot of my sets/2 pair combos. That being said I have 0 SDV... and I don't block any diamonds, which villain may have and fold to a river jam. The 3 also takes away some of villain's sets.
Should I bluff this river? My gut feeling is no, but from an EV POV, my hand never wins unless I bluff. So mathematically I think I need to bet something here?
Should I bluff this river? My gut feeling is no, but from an EV POV, my hand never wins unless I bluff. So mathematically I think I need to bet something here?
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