Spots where opponent is not defending enough OTR

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Spots where opponent is not defending enough OTR

Hey guys,

I was reading Matthew Juandas book the other day and this concept confuses me a bit.
So let's bring an example. Singleraised pot and we open OTB and BB flats Board is random, aswell as turn and river. I have a big samplesize on him and his fold vs river bet is 65%, meaning I should not bet a balanced range OTR. I should be overbluffing, right? Let's say i bet 75% of the pot so I should have 70/30 ratio of value/bluffs in order to be balanced, but now that he is overfolding how many more bluffs should I add?

Basically from how I understand it I should just bet river with 100% frequency to maximally exploit him since I can bet any2 and betting going to be better than checking (EV wise). Am I missing something? Is this theoretical that I can bet any2 and can it actually apply in real life poker scenarios?

Thanks for answering!

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