The Relationship Between Pre-Flop Pot Odds and Post-Flop Defending Frequency
Posted by AF3
Posted by
AF3
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Mid Stakes
The Relationship Between Pre-Flop Pot Odds and Post-Flop Defending Frequency
Has anybody thought about this, or could James expand on the idea?
I see the argument being something like:
1) When we call and flop big with any two cards, we should expect more bets to go in, or else our weak hands get to showdown much too often.
--If we're getting to showdown too often, meaning that Villain doesn't put bets in post-flop (at some non-zero rate), then Villain loses expectation, because we will often have to fold our weaker hands to avoid paying off Villain's value. Villain then has incentive to change their strategy, and so we should therefore not be getting to showdown with weak holdings much of the time that we have called with them pre-flop--
2) Because we should expect more bets to go in (see 1), we should have some non-zero implied odds with many hands.
3) When factoring in the discount we are getting pre-flop, combined with the "mandatory" implied odds
(see 2), then we can improve our expectation by calling instead of folding.
4) Since the pre-flop call should be immediately profitable, it does not matter if Villain is able to c-bet any two cards profitably on the flop.
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