I open AQss in MP to 25 over an EP limper, my normal sizing.
BU flats, a guy I know and am friendly with, but unfortunately I don't know his exact game or ranges. He is around 30, studies and tries to play well, watches training videos. He is not a crusher and does not derive a living from playing, but he is likely a long-term winner with his fundamentally sound strategies (relative to the average live donk). He knows I am a livepro and respects my game, but knows I am capable of taking funky lines.
After rake and EP limper folds, there is
55 in pot and 410 in effective stack (I cover villain by a bit)
we have NFD with AQss
I cbet 30 as I would most of my range on this favorable flop, BU flats,
135 in pot,
turn is offsuit 9
board K359xssz, I still have NFD with AQss
I barrel 85 setting up a roughly potsize river shove, but BU shoves turn over my barrel
I need to call about 300 to win about 900, so I need 33.3% equity. I mentally give villain sets and TP, with a few FD and I don't think I have enough equity against that range, or even close. As I hold As, villain cannot have that many FD himself. I fold.
This is not the most exciting hand ever, but I want to make sure I am I playing these spots correctly. Am I?