I'll be playing more of these soft 300 dollar deepstack freezeouts at the local casino that I dipped my toes in this week. I was quite suprised at how erratic these villains were, quick example was this hand from early on:
150BB effective we raise 108o from the button villain calls
Flop 1042 goes check check
Turn K we bet somewhere under half pot and gets raised 4x, we end up calling
River Q goes check check and villain shows down Q3o
The hand that got me thinking I might have to work with live reads as an exploit was a big hand I lost later in the tournament, blinds were 300/600 and we were about 42k deep. Loose early position guy raised to 1200 and with AJo we accidently threw in the wrong chips raising to 2200 from the HJ, button who we already sorta knew was erratic and somewhat fishy called from the button and EP raiser called as well.
Flop was AQ4 two spades and we bet 4k, at this point I remember button looking genuinely conflicted about the flop but he ended up calling,
Turn was an offsuit 3 and normally I wouldn't double barrel I think but I went with my flop read and again bet 7k which villain quickly called.
River was the 6 of spades completing the flushdraw and I remember at the time i expected villain to have a bunch of queens and worse aces as well as the occasional flushdraw in his range so I ended up checking, villain instashoves for something like 16k and we end up folding somewhat quickly.
Villain tables J6o and that one did sort of hurt. I did read him as weak on the flop and come to think of it I don't think most peole who don't actively put thought into how they want to be percieved instacalls turn on a flushdraw but rather needs a few seconds before calling in my experience.
Now obviously I am going to get bluffed occasionally and putting people calling small 3bets on J6o isn't what I'm after either but I'm curious, what kind of resources can I look into for some more insight into live reads on the average joe casino player. I believe my intuition is quite good and i've had good results just letting them punt off stacks into me with ranges that are too bluff heavy but I'd like to take it one step further