BB: MrSweets28: $18916
EireAbu raises to $200, MrSweets28 raises to $640, EireAbu raises to $1450, MrSweets28 raises to $4390, EireAbu calls $2940
This hand may not be ALL that interesting, but during the hand I felt as though my line was clearly best, yet I couldn't decide how much EV it actually gained me vs. a range (and I'm still not 100% convinced it's best).
He had been 4betting a reasonable amount, but showed down rundown type hands 2 of 2 times after making this smaller than pot 4bet. Obviously, no strong read there, but worth something, and made me feel good enough about 5betting to go for it (can't be too bad vs. anyone competent anyways).
On the flop, I feel as though I occasionally would check-fold dry AAxx, and I definitely x/f AKQJ/AKQT even with double dbfds (agree?).
I feel like I occasionally get him to stab flops with air, and if he checks back, I get to induce bluffs on turns that I hit, and take down the pot more often by jamming turns that I miss.
Once he bets, I think calling is best, but I'm VERY unsure here. The EV difference may be teeny, but I felt that he'd bluff jam occasionally on straightening turns, and my plan was to open jam non-straightening turns. Is there any chance he bets flop with 1 pair, planning to call off vs. a jam, but folds vs. my turn pot on a Q, K, or A?
Certainly I should gain some FE vs hands like KQT9 on a 5 turn, for example.
On the flip-side, how much am I risking by letting him take a free card in a pot that's already huge? What about once he bets? There is a (very?) small category of hands that would bet-fold flop, but turn enough equity to call my open jam, right?
Is x/c flop and donking "safe" turns, while x/f straight turns a reasonable line with any parts of my high pair range?
Or is this all just FPS, and I'm over-thinking a spot where my action barely matters?
I'd love to see any math-based analysis to get some tangible idea of how much thought I should be putting into spots like these.