AQ98ds good enough to push? PLO50
Posted by vanhoover
Posted by
vanhoover
posted in
Low Stakes
AQ98ds good enough to push? PLO50
BB: $57.81
HJ: $49.25
CO: $76.33 (Hero)
BN: $50
SB: $35.46
HJ: $49.25
CO: $76.33 (Hero)
BN: $50
SB: $35.46
Preflop
($0.75)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
9
8
A
HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB raises to $5, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB raises to $5, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
SB is loose player - 46/27 with 14% 3bet after 2k hands. He resteals form SB about 20% of hands. So I have here easy call.
Flop
($10.75)
7
J
5
(2 Players)
SB bets $7.50,
Hero raises to $32.53,
SB calls $22.96, and is all in
He cbets in 3bet pots 76% of time. On this board I assume, he will be doing it with J, QQ+, pair+flush draw, naked nut flush draw, sets and straight draws. Its hard to say if he will cbet here with total air. If so than its better to me.
My hand is too weak to call so I have an option to fold or push. If I push all in then I expect call from NFD, sets, wraps, and fold from weak Jx or overpairs.
My equity after call will be about 27% so I need to get rid of him 38% of time, right?
My equity after call: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7hJc5c&g=oh&h1=AhQh9d8d&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
If I'm counting right he should fold 58% of his cbeting range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/count?d=Qh+Ah+9d+8d+7h+Jc+5c&g=oh&h1=%28J%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%24ss%2C+QQ%2B%24ss%2C+Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B87%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
So my push is EV+ and I'm winning 58%*18$+(71,42*27%-30,46$)*42%=5,74$
If he calls my shove wider or cbets wider, then I need less folds and my equity should increase
during playing this hand I put my hand in top of folding range so if i get called I'm not in very bad shape. And I should have enough folding equity vs wide 3bet and cbet range when I have blockers to straight draws
My hand is too weak to call so I have an option to fold or push. If I push all in then I expect call from NFD, sets, wraps, and fold from weak Jx or overpairs.
My equity after call will be about 27% so I need to get rid of him 38% of time, right?
My equity after call: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7hJc5c&g=oh&h1=AhQh9d8d&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
If I'm counting right he should fold 58% of his cbeting range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/count?d=Qh+Ah+9d+8d+7h+Jc+5c&g=oh&h1=%28J%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%24ss%2C+QQ%2B%24ss%2C+Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B87%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
So my push is EV+ and I'm winning 58%*18$+(71,42*27%-30,46$)*42%=5,74$
If he calls my shove wider or cbets wider, then I need less folds and my equity should increase
during playing this hand I put my hand in top of folding range so if i get called I'm not in very bad shape. And I should have enough folding equity vs wide 3bet and cbet range when I have blockers to straight draws
Turn
($73.74)
7
J
5
6
(2 Players)
River
($73.74)
7
J
5
6
6
(2 Players)
Final Pot
SB has
3
A
J
T
Hero has
Q
9
8
A
Hero
wins $68.92
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