Checking back or betting river

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Checking back or betting river

UTG: $323.32
HJ: $200
CO: $262.30 (Hero)
BN: $235.43
SB: $208.25
BB: $92
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T 3 Q Q
UTG calls $2, HJ raises to $8, Hero calls $8, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $6, UTG calls $6
Flop ($33.00) Q K 4 (4 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, HJ bets $30, Hero calls $30, BB folds, UTG folds
Turn ($93.00) J (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero checks
River ($93.00) 5 (2 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $67, HJ folds

UTG limps, with 44/8, HJ isolates, plays 27/20 and is a strong reg (adjusts his play according to situations and players). I dont think I can 3bet my hand profitable here against him with 3 players and fish behind me and I would hate facing a 4bet.

HJ cbets near pot in a 4way pot. Seeing as he is a good player he should always have a hand he can go with, so xxATss, xxAJss, AJTxss, KKxx or a hand like KQJT. I dont assume he is ever playing 44xx here. I dont see the merit to getting it in here against such a range.

Turn brings in all the broadway wraps, which hit my range way harder after him checking. I do think he is rarely ever (pretty much never) tricky here, or atleast not against me or my range. He probably puts me on a similar range with a flushdraw/wrap/lowset/top2 heavy range. I dont see any worse hands calling a bet here or any better hands folding (I do think he will get it in here with KKxx, correctly so).

On the river also the spade draw comes in. He checks again.

At this point my thought process is that he would have bet at some point (turn or river) with a spade draw or the straight. I do think his range is extremely polarized range towards KKxx or KQxx. Since I am blocking 2 queens, mathematically and with the flop potbet he is even more leaning towards KKxx.

I do think he can fold easily with KKxx on this river. I even think he can fold a small flush (like KK7s5s). He is a good player and I do think he views me as a reg. I am expecting that he thinks I will want to go to a showdown more often with a hand like this. I dont think he has seen any plays like this from me, but I also think there is nothing he can do about it.

Am I giving him a too polarized range? Do I have a hand with too much showdownvalue?

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