poker - $10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG (UTG): 173.65 BB (VPIP: 53.97, PFR: 44.44, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 66)
Hero (CO): 189.43 BB
BTN (BTN): 132.8 BB (VPIP: 26.55, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 1,213)
SB (SB): 123.63 BB (VPIP: 25.73, PFR: 18.02, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 4,790)
BB (BB): 130.61 BB (VPIP: 30.38, PFR: 23.36, 3Bet Preflop: 13.12, Hands: 668)
Villain 3bets about 12% out of the BB vs the CO, so far I've mostly seen him 3bet high card hands and rundowns, although I'm sure aces and strong kings are in his range.
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Dealt to Hero:
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 9.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB
seems like a standard call with a suit and the K. without the K or without a suit I would consider folding especially at only 130bbs deep.
Flop (19.5 BB, 2 players):
BB checks, Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB
Villain cbets 70% in 3bet pots, and seems to cbet more OOP than IP. He's actually folded to most cbets or flop floats OOP (basically vs missed cbet) but the sample is really small and includes non-3bet pots. This is fairly close to my standard flop stab sizing, but a little larger since the board is wet. My assumption is that he would bet an over pair with a flush draw, and x/r most of his strong combo draws despite having a really low check raise number so far. But I can see him x/c'ing some wraps and OESDs with a pair, or some AA with bds.
Turn (43.5 BB, 2 players):
BB checks, Hero bets 30 BB, BB calls 30 BB
Even though this turn completes 86, I think I'm still way ahead of his range and am obviously betting to stack the turn. I want to bet a size that is consistent with my bluffs and we have a little too much behind to just go ahead and pot. everything seems standard so far.
River (103.5 BB, 2 players):
BB bets 79.11 BB and is all-in, Hero time-banks contemplates all options gets confused wishes he had some blockers and ... folds
villain didn't waste much time, and then shoved the rest into my on the river. This is obviously a pretty bad card as KJ and J8 get there, but JT doesn't and you would think he would play blockers this way as well since he can't x/r the river. I don't think he's going to shove TT for value as I can easily have a straight. Also I doubt he expects me to shove a set on this river, so my range for betting the river is pretty much going to be straights and air. So if he doesn't think I have enough bluffs in this spot he may be looking to get me to call a worse straight or a set.
The biggest reason I folded is because I don't know that he floats twice OOP with just JJTx. I would think to float twice he would need a wrap something like KJT or JT8. And all of the wraps got there. Of course this is pretty high up in my range, so folding seems bad. lastly villain x/f'd once facing a bet on the river in a 3bet pot.
BB wins 182.31 BB
did I screw up by folding this river? I feel really exploitable folding here, but (as I've noted lately on the forums) I'm going through a stretch where every time I make this call I lose.