HU Spot confused on turn
Posted by spenda
Posted by
spenda
posted in
Low Stakes
HU Spot confused on turn
On Bovada so forgive crudeness
Opponent seemed competent, bluffed scare cards, didn't make any awful bet size errors, whatever. Main note is we have been playing a while and recently I have been 3betting a ton. Now he hasn't caught me with anything junky but I have turned up with middling rundowns a couple times. He small 4b once, I 5b and he folded to flop shove. Also I will note he has started limping the button more since I began 3betting, which makes me discount sets a bit as I'd assume those hands are ones that he's limping with to avoiding being 3bet.
One hand of note is I 3b AAxx and whiffed a turn c/r on A high board. He checked back bad fd plus gutter and binked river which I paid off.
110bb effective
Hero KdKsQdJh
SB raises 3bb, Hero raises 9bb, SB calls
Flop(18bb) Ad 2s 5d
Hero bets 11bb, SB calls
Turn(40bb) Jc
Hero???
Looking back on it I feel like his flop calling range is
A3xx/A4xx or pair + weak fd hands
35xx/45xx
hands like AKJ9 that didn't want to 4b and other 2pr combos
bad fd's
naked 34xx
22xx/55xx (discounted)
floats (very discounted, he has been in line in 3b pots)
Honestly I'm not sure he has a flop raising range for value, obviously some people will raise/call it off with 34 or sets but others would take a card off first. They certainly aren't 100% jamming flop.
On the turn we're well ahead of his floats and worse draws like gutter+bad fd, behind one pair hands like AQT6, and in fairly rough shape against sets/34xx. I believe checking is correct, to gain maximum value from his floats + allow worse draws to improve (I'd assume if I bet fairly large or so most are folding). But would we c/shove or c/c?
I'm not exactly sure what betting would accomplish. A barrel would get folds from worse draws (but maybe not, this could be flaw in entire ling of thinking here), floats, and some Axxx hands that don't have other possible equity. He might (note: probably) checks back a lot of bad Axxx hands that we're a slight dog against. We get it in not awful but not great vs. the top of his flop calling range if we bet/call it off.
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