Live at the casino, the game normally runs 5/10/20 but it’s 5/5/10 tonight. It’s early morning and the game is 6 handed with varying level of stacks. Hero is the effective stack for ~4800. Villain has been quite aggressive sometimes making big folds and sometimes calling off with draws that are behind. He seems to be more of a solid player than the average player when the 5/10 runs but seems to be more of a pro NLHE player who occasionally plays PLO when the 5/10 NL breaks. Was caught overvalueing weak AAxx pre earlier. Can be gambley at times.
UTG Straddle is on, CO folds BU raises 40 SB calls hero is in the big blind with AQJ8ds and raises 160. BU folds and SB pauses longer than usual and calls.
Pot ~ 370
Sb checks and hero bets 330. Sb pauses to think and then raises 1400. Hero?
On the flop, I was thinking that I have two backdoor flushes, the wrap to the broadway straight and the gutter to the nuts. I also would like to pot it with KK in this spot vs weak aces that flat pre. I figured a call from villain might include a hand like KK or TT but they might lead as he has done that several times in the session. Also, I definitely am looking forward to flatting hands looking for straights that I am dominating like QJT9 JT98 and JJ98. Maybe 9876ds? As soon as villain raises, I think I have made a mistake and should have checked with all my equity in position and not having a made hand. Villain is representing a set here but I really don’t think he has KK as he would probably 4b pre. My plan was prior to raising was bet/GII but is that the best choice? Are we GII here? Can we make a fold knowing that we are 40/60 vs a set or do we make ourselves too exploitable? Is there any argument to peel a turn card here? If the turn cards comes a brick or pairs the board we can get away but I think if it does and villain has air, he will push us off our equity just about every time with his aggressive nature. Wha do you think?