Middle set 150bbs deep on J94s

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Middle set 150bbs deep on J94s

BB: $1332.74
UTG: $764.65
HJ: $220
CO: $510.46
BN: $532.06
SB: $687.22 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 9 8 9
UTG folds, HJ raises to $14, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $12, BB calls $10
Flop ($42.00) J 4 9 (3 Players)
Hero bets $28, BB raises to $84, HJ folds
BB is a slightly losing (splashy preflop) multitabling reg. Kind of a 3bet monkey but pretty straightforward postflop. Haven't played with him that much. HJ doesn't CB much so I lead hoping BB folds so I can play vs. HJ. BB raises however 150 bbs deep. Now what??

Against a range like (JJ,44,J9:Acc,QTJ9,QT8,KQT:cc,T87:cc):30% I have 40% and if that is his true range my play is pretty easy. I call and XR a good turn for me. But is this a realistic range at 2/4?

Let's say that he is 3 times more likely to raise topset than all the other hands. Then his range looks like this:
(JJ@3,(44,J9:Acc,QTJ9,QT8,KQT:cc,T87:cc)@1):30%

Now, I have only 29%. So, I just fold my middle set on this flop?

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