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Pair + FD in 4way 3bet pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Pair + FD in 4way 3bet pot

BN: $50
SB: $86.21 (Hero)
BB: $50.75
UTG: $248.11
HJ: $140.12
CO: $52.07
The 3bettor in this hand has a 4% 3bet stat over 261 hands. I expect his 3bet to be quite strong here, since the player opening under the gun is a 28/19 reg.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J T 8 7
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO raises to $6.75, BN folds, Hero calls $6.50, BB folds, UTG calls $5.25, HJ calls $5.25
Not sure if this is standard on my part given it's quite a big squeeze. I expect the pot to be at least 3way, since HJ (the flat caller) is a pretty big fish and will never fold. We're sitting deep with UTG and HJ, and we have the worst absolute position in the hand and also the worst relative position, since we'll often be facing a cbet from CO and be put in a tough spot where we might have to lay down a ton of equity because of the players behind us.

I think I just convinced myself this is a fold.
Flop ($27.50) 3 T 2 (4 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, HJ checks, CO bets $26.26
Pot comes out pretty dry, and as expected CO pots. I expect him to do that with all of his 3betting range which should be very AA/KK heavy. Obviously we are happy to get this in against him, but there are 2 players behind us, who have an effective SPR of 3 against us.

I know this is solvable with math, but given it's 4way, we're looking at a lot of work, and first I wanna see if you guys think it's close or not.

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