PLO200 river bluffraise ?

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PLO200 river bluffraise ?

http://weaktight.com/5928658


Villian is a PLO HU midstakes reg and his lowest limit is 1/2.  He calls 27% oop  and 3b 41% (!!!) pre .

Flop :

He CR Flop 20%  and folds to cbets 50%.

I give him a kind of polaired CR RANGE of    JJ , 77 , 33 , (50%) J7,  AsXs,  89T,  and some air / naked gutter type hands.   I rule out J3  and 73 combos because he would much more likely flat these hands.


Turn :   

I think on turn he cc at least some of his J7,  JJ, 33 combos as he was the type of player betting polarised on turns / afraid of getting raised this deep.

 he will definitely bet his  gutshots and FD´s on turn.


I think u CAN fold the turn, because on most rivers we will hate to face aggression.

But T, 9, 8, J and spades are good cards for us.
So i call the turn.


River : 

What do u think of an river shove ?????

We can credibly rep  JJ and J7 in our range + We block one J .  

77 is very unlikely and there are not much 33 combos in his preflop cold calling range.

Furthermore we can discount at least some J7  combos, because he never craise with all J7 combos the flop +  he ´s  much more likely to c/c the turn with those .


The Question is if he vbets/ bluff enough of the time, to make this move +EV. 

I think he bets the Nutflush,  Nutflushblocker,  J blocker on his own !?

What do u think of his betting range here?


Do u like the river shove or do u think there are simply not enough combos he would bet/fold?


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