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Should i peel here? (Live PLO) How much do i have to get paid on the river to make it a peel?

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

Should i peel here? (Live PLO) How much do i have to get paid on the river to make it a peel?

Sorry in advance for posting this in the HighStakes thread, but that's where I figured it would get the most answers.

Ok so We're playing PLO 1/2€ with a 4€ Button Straddle.
Hero is in the Big blind with 950€
Villain is a winning reg, not known to make big plays or anything, but solid, and is in the Small blind with over 1000€.
Villain calls the 4€ straddle, Hero raises 15€ With Jc10c9s8s, button calls, Villain calls.
(Pot 45€)
Flop: Qs7c2h
Villain checks, Hero bets 40€, button folds, Villain raises 110€.
At this point we assume the villain has Q7+, so bluffing on later streets for us is mostly out of the picture, maybe on an A or a 2 turn that gives us a flush draw if Villain checks to us and we sense some weekness. But mostly out of the picture.

Here is my reasoning to make the peel, despite the fact that i am calling to HIT a draw, which i know sounds pretty bad:

Villain is giving us a decent price here to peel (a bit less than 3 to 1).

We will continue about 56% of the time on the turn (20 outs for any wrap, (with 8 of them giving us wrap + flushdraw), plus an additional 4 outs (Ac As 5c 5s) that gives us gutshot+flush draw minus 1 of our outs that we assume Villain will have in his range, so 23/41=56%)

We know also that because his range is so QQ heavy on most turns he will give us a very or somewhat good of a price because he will think he is crushing our hand and doesn't want to push us away (he wont be putting us on our particular hand, he'll put us on Kk AA or a AKqx type hand), so assume a 2/3 or under bet on most turns, lets say 2/3 (which was the amount he bet btw, on a 8c turn).

We have to count also the implied odds we are going to get on the river in case we hit, and that's exactly what I'm trying to figure out.
Im sure some basic math will reach a conclusion, can any of you help me?

Thanks so much,
Have a nice day

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