The Long Run

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Posted by posted in Gen. Poker

The Long Run

Hi Guys

So after running bad for quite a while and never really getting a foot up on poker, I feel like I grasp so many concepts better than other players who do better than me. So I did some research into the long run and I stumbled across this variance calculator which I am sure some of you may have used before:

So, lets assume I am a 3bb/100 average winner at low stakes. The worst possible run for me over 1 MILLION HANDS is break even. The probability that I will yield a loss over this period os 0.13% which (correct me if I am wrong). 1 Out of every 740 players this will happen to. Even after 2 million hands the probability of still being at a loss is still probable, given the amount of players.

Conversely, if I say I am a slight losing player -1bb/100. Over 1 MILLION HANDS, the odds that I will actually profit at the end of it is 16%, which is almost 1 in every 6 players who play bad will profit, even after 1million hands.

So this leads me on to the question:

1) Pros must exist that do not play all that well, but are in the top percentile of "running good" which means everything falls into place for them, for extended periods of time, even though they could technically be a losing player.

2) Losers must exist that are technically winning players.

Surely we must also factor in the fact people run better at different times, if you run better when you move up, you are more likely to be successful. Your mental game will be better and therefore your overall playing and profit will be better.

Also, this video is awesome:

Discuss :)

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