m3taphysics's avatar


30 points

Hi Guys

Its probably been about 5 years since my last post! But I've been playing poker again more and more often and this hand has had me thinking for a few days, so I'd like some input!

UTG limp £1, MP limp £1, co raise £10, btn call £10, I’m on Sb with AhKc

I make it £33 to go with 250 bb effective stacks

CO call, BTN call

Both regs, both OK players, probably just make general live mistakes but certainly not bad. I’d seen CO bluff earlier so not incapable of it and BTN had been tight all night, not seen much action from him (headphones on, watching stuff on youtube..)

Flop comes

I cbet £45 into the £100~ pot for equity protection and value. Both players call.

Turn is Tc (Pot: £235)

On the turn I decide to check. This is questionable but my reasons are as follows. At this point I feel I only get value from AJ, everything else I have in their range beats me, apart from flush draws. Its unlikely both have flush draws. I decide the most optimal line here is checking, but it feels weak like I am giving up. Position really makes this hand difficult.

CO bets £125, BTN calls £125, hero?

June 15, 2019 | 3:47 p.m.

Hand History | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: AKs facing 4b, MP v CO
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $30.41
SB: $25.00
BB: $27.57
UTG: $38.48
MP: $25.00
CO: $40.64 (Hero)
Very little reads, its ZOOM. Was very early in a session.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with A K
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, MP raises to $5.70, Hero calls $3.20
Standard 3bet for value. The 4bet in this situation gets me a little worried but I block KK and AA. Is this a standard get it in? What do i do if the flop is total airball?
Flop ($11.75) T 4 T
MP bets $6.73, Hero raises to $34.94 and is all in, MP calls $12.57 and is all in
Turn ($65.99) T 4 T 7
River ($65.99) T 4 T 7 7

Jan. 28, 2016 | 2:08 p.m.

this is what upset me, lots of people talking about making 2bb/100 at 2nl lol

Jan. 27, 2016 | 8:29 p.m.

Post | m3taphysics posted in Chatter: Its been a while...

Hey guys,

Its been a while since I've played took a long break from poker. Recently re-subbed and considering jumping back into the games.

  • What did I miss?
  • Are the games still good?
  • PokerStars still one of the best?
  • I've heard HUD's are now restricted. I was thinking of getting JIVARO.

I wont be playing full time, but it would be nice to play again for the fun and hopefully make some money in the process. But after going on twoplustwo it seems there is so little brag posts now, lots of players have fallen away into the variance trap.

Who knows maybe im wrong, hows everybody getting on in the poker world? :)

Jan. 27, 2016 | 10:10 a.m.

Post | m3taphysics posted in MTT: KK in Scoop 23-L Early.


I wasn't too sure about this hand, it was pretty awkward. Early in the scoop event I was a little lost OTT.

On the turn he min-re-raises giving me insane value, alarm bells ring but I just cant put him on a hand. QJ makes sense. 44, possibly jacks?

The river hits and I basically lose to random flush draws (im not sure he min-re-raises these on the turn). QQ (I think he 4bets preflop), JJ raises flop. 44 raises flop....?



May 17, 2015 | 4:33 p.m.

Thanks guys, I went over this in my head several times and I felt I just couldn't fold.

May 4, 2015 | 8:07 p.m.

Blinds: t15,000/t30,000 (7 Players) MP: 831,572
UTG+1: 806,599
CO: 471,899
BN: 1,356,469
SB: 2,377,006
BB: 366,100 (Hero)
UTG: 534,120
Hero just sat down at the table, he had played sat 4 hands and this was the first he has played. No stats.

27 left in this tournament, fairly deep run for me :).
Preflop (45,000) Hero is BB with 9 9
UTG raises to 70,000, 5 folds, Hero raises to 363,100 and is all in, UTG calls 293,100
With 12BB. I feel like I cant call, cant fold but im not happy getting it in. But I feel not shipping 12bb here is super weak.

May 4, 2015 | 8:26 a.m.

Hi the whole point of this hand is that i dont know opponents tendancies. Its a generic question to determine what to do because I dont actually know what to do. You basically wrote my question but with more detail so thanks :)

March 21, 2015 | 8:43 a.m.

I ran good for a year live. Now I cant win anymore. Dont quit your job until you have enough to live on for a long time

Feb. 23, 2015 | 7:51 a.m.

Very sorry. I was the Big Blind and we were 100bb deep (early in the match)

I thought you could understand that from the post (as villain raises first)


Feb. 23, 2015 | 7:50 a.m.

Post | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: AQo Heads Up - Early-ish

20-30 hands in. I never know how to play AQ. In the said hand, villain raises to 3bb, I 3bet to 7bb and I was 4bet to 16.5bb.

In terms of dynamics, I had 3bet quite high, maybe 3-4 times over the 30 hands. Mainly A8s+, we hadn't got to showdown yet though.

At this point its shove or call. I dont really know what to do. Its like the top of my range?


Feb. 21, 2015 | 9:52 p.m.

Great thanks!! I have been going through some GTO stratgies but one area I am sloppy on is figuring out opening + 3bet/calling ranges. Its easy to figure out "how many combos should I be defending here GTO". But its more difficult flipping the situation around knowing how many combinations I should be BETTING (not calling). i.e. villain opens to 2.5x. We need to factor in our 3bet range, plus villains calling range, plus then the flop and what % of that range we need to bet in order not to be exploited (and thus, a range for check/folding, check/raising, check/calling).

I find this a little difficult!! Your videos are awesome by the way!

Feb. 3, 2015 | 10:47 a.m.

Hand History | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: HU J7s, gutshot OTT - Bet or Check
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (2 Players) BB: $50.20 (Hero)
SB: $51.50
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BB with 7 J
Hero raises to $1.00, SB raises to $4.00, Hero calls $3.00
J7s is well within my defending range here. So I call.
Flop ($8.00) A 4 T
SB bets $4.80, Hero calls $4.80
Given the backdoor equity, I think this is within my floating range too.
Turn ($17.60) A 4 T 8
SB checks, Hero bets $8.25, SB raises to $42.70 and is all in, Hero folds
Now I am a little confused. How do I construct my:

Bet/Fold Range (Weakest Draws without showdown and AIR)
Bet/Call (Strongest Draws and Sets/TwoP+)
Check Back (Pair + Weak Draws, TP, Second Pair and 8x)

Does this sound fair?
Final Pot SB wins $33.60
Rake is $0.50

Feb. 2, 2015 | 11:27 p.m.

Excellent video!! Really enjoyed it. My only query is why are we not raising 55 at any point?

Feb. 2, 2015 | 8:46 p.m.

Can I steal your HUD? :)

Feb. 1, 2015 | 10:31 p.m.

Post | m3taphysics posted in Chatter: Heads Up games on FTP

So ive been out of the game for a while, I decided to jump into some heads up matches.

I proceeded to join TEN heads up tables and every single person sat out against me.

Is poker dead?

Jan. 31, 2015 | 6:50 p.m.

Thanks guys

Oct. 27, 2014 | 7:28 p.m.

Hand History | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: Flush facing river shove
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: Asheh: $10.00 (Hero)
SB: pM90: $10.15
BB: jirkamaty8: $21.66
UTG: buroburo: $10.14
MP: pva21: $10.70
CO: cheramis: $3.69
Preflop ($0.15) Asheh is BN with 8 T
buroburo raises to $0.40, pva21 folds, cheramis calls $0.40, Asheh calls $0.40, 2 folds
I think its fine to call here.
Flop ($1.35) 8 Q J
buroburo bets $2.80, cheramis calls $2.80, Asheh calls $2.80
Villain overbets pot, I dont see any reason to shove here esp since the fish overcalled. It seems like a strong hand that hes trying to protect.
Turn ($9.75) 8 Q J J
buroburo checks, cheramis checks, Asheh checks
Turn check is super weird, alarm bells ring.
River ($9.75) 8 Q J J 7
buroburo bets $6.94 and is all in, cheramis folds, Asheh folds
I tank here, I have hit my hand. But im just not happy about it. I actually fold to a turn shove.

I think he bets a jack on the turn, and he doesn't shove a queen on the river. He could have a flush but its doubtful that its lower than mine. I only beat a jack but I think he bets that on the turn. That leaves me with nuts or air!

Oct. 26, 2014 | 9:57 p.m.

Post | m3taphysics posted in Chatter: The Long Run

Hi Guys

So after running bad for quite a while and never really getting a foot up on poker, I feel like I grasp so many concepts better than other players who do better than me. So I did some research into the long run and I stumbled across this variance calculator which I am sure some of you may have used before: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

So, lets assume I am a 3bb/100 average winner at low stakes. The worst possible run for me over 1 MILLION HANDS is break even. The probability that I will yield a loss over this period os 0.13% which (correct me if I am wrong). 1 Out of every 740 players this will happen to. Even after 2 million hands the probability of still being at a loss is still probable, given the amount of players.

Conversely, if I say I am a slight losing player -1bb/100. Over 1 MILLION HANDS, the odds that I will actually profit at the end of it is 16%, which is almost 1 in every 6 players who play bad will profit, even after 1million hands.

So this leads me on to the question:

1) Pros must exist that do not play all that well, but are in the top percentile of "running good" which means everything falls into place for them, for extended periods of time, even though they could technically be a losing player.

2) Losers must exist that are technically winning players.

Surely we must also factor in the fact people run better at different times, if you run better when you move up, you are more likely to be successful. Your mental game will be better and therefore your overall playing and profit will be better.

Also, this video is awesome:

Discuss :)

Oct. 21, 2014 | 11:37 a.m.

Agree with Phisy, I think this is a bet fold. he can still have Ax hands, some Qx hands and two pairs hes not happy to raise with.

Oct. 15, 2014 | 9:32 p.m.

What has inspired me is that you have had losing streaks of over 200k hands. Buts barely insignificant given your volume. What do you do in this time? Where every day is just a losing day, and the winning days barely make up for it. Every 4bet gets jammed on, every river card improves your range but your opponents range more. And no matter how many fish you play, they pwn your ass....

How do you feel when you are 100k hands in and starting to doubt your ability? I have this right now :(.

Oct. 13, 2014 | 10:41 a.m.

SB: $385.20
BB: $50.25 (Hero)

I 3b this guy previously with AA, he calls and raises my cbet on a 67x rainbow board, I call and check call his turn shove when an 8 fell. He had 67o

I call from BB w/ J9o vs his btn open, I chk raise 678 board, he calls flop, turn 2, goes chk chk, river is a jack. I value bet my jack he flats J7 for two pair.
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.50
Given history i 3bet for value.
Flop ($8.75) Q 6 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $5, SB raises to $14
Great flop I cbet, but he raises. Whats my plan here? I mean, I have almost mid-to-top of range. The board is very draw heavy. Although history suggests his flop raises are strength? And hes only shown down good hands. Apart from flatting my check raise w/ second pair.

Oct. 10, 2014 | 8:58 a.m.

Im not sure how determining how the caller responds to 3bets helps in this flop situation?

Oct. 5, 2014 | 3:51 p.m.

Hi guys

I have been working on my game a lot recently and looking into the math behind some of the theory. Really interesting stuff. While I realise I do not need to understand everything to beat lower limits, its somthing I enjoy doing.

I was looking at hand earlier and I was trying to decide if I should be betting it, or checking it and giving up. I was trying to figure out the maths behind how much of my range I need to bet, in order to not lose money immediately. So how do we construct this range?

I need to construct a range of value and bluffs but I am not sure how to do this. The hand in question was:

Jd8h on a Th2h2c flop.

I think we must start by looking at my opening range from the button, then deciding how much of that I am betting for value. The question is how much do I need to bet in order to not be exploited?

Am I right in thinking, we must make the opponent indifferent to calling? In that if we bet 0.75 pot, if the opponent folds more than 58% of the time, we immediately profit. So we must look at constructing a range of 58% of our preflop opening range?

Im almost certain this can be solved if we plug in some assumptions, but Im just a little lost at this point.


Oct. 5, 2014 | 1:42 p.m.

very tight

Oct. 4, 2014 | 12:57 p.m.

Sorry, I play zoom. Without a HUD. So most of my reads are based on previous hands or stacksizes/names. I couldn't extract anything from this player.

Ok thanks guys, I really felt like I couldn't fold here. I have been running so bad lately I had to quit after ONLY 200 hands, hitting my stop loss.

Oct. 4, 2014 | 12:55 p.m.

Why isn't the turn so great? 

Oct. 4, 2014 | 12:53 p.m.

I dont thinnk we can call the flop with 2 players to act behind? And my  reasoning for getting it heads up was that my hand isn't going to play well 4 way over 3 streets. Once I am heads up. The dynamics change a lot.

Oct. 4, 2014 | 12:52 p.m.

Hand History | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: AA in squeezed pot, UTG vs BB
BN: $57.29
SB: $82.24
BB: $54 (Hero)
UTG: $94.62
HJ: $297.90
CO: $56.24
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $5, HJ folds
I make it on the larger size given my positional disadvantage.
Flop ($14.75) Q 8 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $11.50, UTG calls $11.50
Standard flop bet he calls, Preflop we have to have him on a range of 99+ and AQ+ at least.
Turn ($37.75) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
Really weird turn bet I dont know w hat we make of this.
River ($38.75) 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $76.12
..........? I beat everything but AQ and I have two blockers to it.

Oct. 4, 2014 | 9:12 a.m.

Hand History | m3taphysics posted in NLHE: AK in multi-way pot
BN: $56.79
SB: $84.66
BB: $230.02
UTG: $50 (Hero)
HJ: $65.19
CO: $18.38
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1
Flop ($6.25) 8 4 A (4 Players)
BB bets $3.12, Hero raises to $9, HJ folds, CO folds, BB calls $5.88
I feel like I have to raise this flop for both value and protection. I cannot risk another player coming behind. If the original donk leader comes over the top, I would probably consider folding. (?)
Turn ($24.25) 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
The turn was awkward, I mean, given his flop call. We can put him on lots of draws, including flush draws. But my worry was, can I really call a shove if I bet here, lets say I bet $13 and setup for a river shove.
River ($24.25) 3 (2 Players)
BB bets $12.12
Hate life here. I just dont feel like I beat anything other than Ax ?

Oct. 4, 2014 | 9:10 a.m.

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