Its probably been about 5 years since my last post! But I've been playing poker again more and more often and this hand has had me thinking for a few days, so I'd like some input!
UTG limp £1, MP limp £1, co raise £10, btn call £10, I’m on Sb with AhKc
I make it £33 to go with 250 bb effective stacks
CO call, BTN call
Both regs, both OK players, probably just make general live mistakes but certainly not bad. I’d seen CO bluff earlier so not incapable of it and BTN had been tight all night, not seen much action from him (headphones on, watching stuff on youtube..)
I cbet £45 into the £100~ pot for equity protection and value. Both players call.
Turn is Tc (Pot: £235)
On the turn I decide to check. This is questionable but my reasons are as follows. At this point I feel I only get value from AJ, everything else I have in their range beats me, apart from flush draws. Its unlikely both have flush draws. I decide the most optimal line here is checking, but it feels weak like I am giving up. Position really makes this hand difficult.
CO bets £125, BTN calls £125, hero?
June 15, 2019 | 3:47 p.m.
CO: $40.64 (Hero)
Jan. 28, 2016 | 2:08 p.m.
Its been a while since I've played took a long break from poker. Recently re-subbed and considering jumping back into the games.
- What did I miss?
- Are the games still good?
- PokerStars still one of the best?
- I've heard HUD's are now restricted. I was thinking of getting JIVARO.
I wont be playing full time, but it would be nice to play again for the fun and hopefully make some money in the process. But after going on twoplustwo it seems there is so little brag posts now, lots of players have fallen away into the variance trap.
Who knows maybe im wrong, hows everybody getting on in the poker world? :)
Jan. 27, 2016 | 10:10 a.m.
I wasn't too sure about this hand, it was pretty awkward. Early in the scoop event I was a little lost OTT.
On the turn he min-re-raises giving me insane value, alarm bells ring but I just cant put him on a hand. QJ makes sense. 44, possibly jacks?
The river hits and I basically lose to random flush draws (im not sure he min-re-raises these on the turn). QQ (I think he 4bets preflop), JJ raises flop. 44 raises flop....?
May 17, 2015 | 4:33 p.m.
BB: 366,100 (Hero)
27 left in this tournament, fairly deep run for me :).
May 4, 2015 | 8:26 a.m.
Hi the whole point of this hand is that i dont know opponents tendancies. Its a generic question to determine what to do because I dont actually know what to do. You basically wrote my question but with more detail so thanks :)
March 21, 2015 | 8:43 a.m.
20-30 hands in. I never know how to play AQ. In the said hand, villain raises to 3bb, I 3bet to 7bb and I was 4bet to 16.5bb.
In terms of dynamics, I had 3bet quite high, maybe 3-4 times over the 30 hands. Mainly A8s+, we hadn't got to showdown yet though.
At this point its shove or call. I dont really know what to do. Its like the top of my range?
Feb. 21, 2015 | 9:52 p.m.
Great thanks!! I have been going through some GTO stratgies but one area I am sloppy on is figuring out opening + 3bet/calling ranges. Its easy to figure out "how many combos should I be defending here GTO". But its more difficult flipping the situation around knowing how many combinations I should be BETTING (not calling). i.e. villain opens to 2.5x. We need to factor in our 3bet range, plus villains calling range, plus then the flop and what % of that range we need to bet in order not to be exploited (and thus, a range for check/folding, check/raising, check/calling).
I find this a little difficult!! Your videos are awesome by the way!
Feb. 3, 2015 | 10:47 a.m.
Bet/Fold Range (Weakest Draws without showdown and AIR)
Bet/Call (Strongest Draws and Sets/TwoP+)
Check Back (Pair + Weak Draws, TP, Second Pair and 8x)
Does this sound fair?
Rake is $0.50
Feb. 2, 2015 | 11:27 p.m.
SB: pM90: $10.15
BB: jirkamaty8: $21.66
UTG: buroburo: $10.14
MP: pva21: $10.70
CO: cheramis: $3.69
I think he bets a jack on the turn, and he doesn't shove a queen on the river. He could have a flush but its doubtful that its lower than mine. I only beat a jack but I think he bets that on the turn. That leaves me with nuts or air!
Oct. 26, 2014 | 9:57 p.m.
So after running bad for quite a while and never really getting a foot up on poker, I feel like I grasp so many concepts better than other players who do better than me. So I did some research into the long run and I stumbled across this variance calculator which I am sure some of you may have used before: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
So, lets assume I am a 3bb/100 average winner at low stakes. The worst possible run for me over 1 MILLION HANDS is break even. The probability that I will yield a loss over this period os 0.13% which (correct me if I am wrong). 1 Out of every 740 players this will happen to. Even after 2 million hands the probability of still being at a loss is still probable, given the amount of players.
Conversely, if I say I am a slight losing player -1bb/100. Over 1 MILLION HANDS, the odds that I will actually profit at the end of it is 16%, which is almost 1 in every 6 players who play bad will profit, even after 1million hands.
So this leads me on to the question:
1) Pros must exist that do not play all that well, but are in the top percentile of "running good" which means everything falls into place for them, for extended periods of time, even though they could technically be a losing player.
2) Losers must exist that are technically winning players.
Surely we must also factor in the fact people run better at different times, if you run better when you move up, you are more likely to be successful. Your mental game will be better and therefore your overall playing and profit will be better.
Also, this video is awesome:
Oct. 21, 2014 | 11:37 a.m.
What has inspired me is that you have had losing streaks of over 200k hands. Buts barely insignificant given your volume. What do you do in this time? Where every day is just a losing day, and the winning days barely make up for it. Every 4bet gets jammed on, every river card improves your range but your opponents range more. And no matter how many fish you play, they pwn your ass....
How do you feel when you are 100k hands in and starting to doubt your ability? I have this right now :(.
Oct. 13, 2014 | 10:41 a.m.
BB: $50.25 (Hero)
I 3b this guy previously with AA, he calls and raises my cbet on a 67x rainbow board, I call and check call his turn shove when an 8 fell. He had 67o
I call from BB w/ J9o vs his btn open, I chk raise 678 board, he calls flop, turn 2, goes chk chk, river is a jack. I value bet my jack he flats J7 for two pair.
SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.50
Oct. 10, 2014 | 8:58 a.m.
I have been working on my game a lot recently and looking into the math behind some of the theory. Really interesting stuff. While I realise I do not need to understand everything to beat lower limits, its somthing I enjoy doing.
I was looking at hand earlier and I was trying to decide if I should be betting it, or checking it and giving up. I was trying to figure out the maths behind how much of my range I need to bet, in order to not lose money immediately. So how do we construct this range?
I need to construct a range of value and bluffs but I am not sure how to do this. The hand in question was:
Jd8h on a Th2h2c flop.
I think we must start by looking at my opening range from the button, then deciding how much of that I am betting for value. The question is how much do I need to bet in order to not be exploited?
Am I right in thinking, we must make the opponent indifferent to calling? In that if we bet 0.75 pot, if the opponent folds more than 58% of the time, we immediately profit. So we must look at constructing a range of 58% of our preflop opening range?
Im almost certain this can be solved if we plug in some assumptions, but Im just a little lost at this point.
Oct. 5, 2014 | 1:42 p.m.
Sorry, I play zoom. Without a HUD. So most of my reads are based on previous hands or stacksizes/names. I couldn't extract anything from this player.
Ok thanks guys, I really felt like I couldn't fold here. I have been running so bad lately I had to quit after ONLY 200 hands, hitting my stop loss.
Oct. 4, 2014 | 12:55 p.m.
BB: $54 (Hero)
UTG raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $5, HJ folds
Oct. 4, 2014 | 9:12 a.m.
UTG: $50 (Hero)
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $1