First thing - I just try to learn something. If I did something wrong in my analysis, please tell me! If anything will sounds offensive - it's just my english skills fault ;)
I'm studying cbetting (again...) and I'm trying to crystalize some rules about flop play. I mean more than "dry - bet small often, wet - bet big not often", because it doesn't seem to always apply, especially in 3bet pot.
I decided to prepare solver simulations for different flops and compare them to rules that my favourite trainers give to create my own set of such rules. I started with my absolute favourite one, Peter Clarke and I found this::
I was never convinced to Peter's "Flops that do not change preflop situation" rule, because 3bet callers have a lot of pockets 22-JJ, some QQ on the BUvSB (on lower stakes also from ealier positions). All of these are going to call our cbets and gives us a tough spots on many turns, OOP it's a quite wild ride.
Anyway, I was always using big size (75%pot) on such boards and now I checked it with solver.
I know, ranges preflop are always debatable. I used "gto" ranges (probably for mid+ stakes) but it doesn't seem to be far different from nl25 regs ranges..
...And it seems like I was right. 744r is one of the worst flops for rangebet and actually it it ever worse that JhTh7d that was given as "bad flop for rangebet" - actually it is quite good for it (probably because 2 big cards).
EV of oryginal strategy (75%pot / 33%pot / check) = 10.62bb (and solver uses almost only 75% bet)
EV of rangebet 33% = 10.20bb <- that gives 0.42bb/hand = 42bb/100hand lost.*
(when rangebet on JhTh7d - which was given as "bad example" - loses only 14bb/100, so not that bad.)
What do you think guys?
Maybe Peter could answer and lighten it a little bit for me.