as this is a Hand from Party and pokerhandreplays is genuinely shitty, I will just narrate the hand.
Party 1k, app. 40% of field left, LR closed, 10% get paid w a ticket. Villain is prolly a good HS reg, BU unknown.
Villain (40BB) 2.3x OR UTG, BU (30BB) flat, Hero (58BB) in BB flat QTo.
Flop (8.4BB): 9h8h8s check/check/check
Turn (8.4BB): 3d Hero bet 125% PS, opener call, BU fold
River (29,4BB): 2c Hero jam for 27,2BB eff, opener calls A7hh
I was pretty surprised to get heroed so lightly and with this particular combo. I have randomized Turn and River, but villain must think that I am pretty massively overbluffing OTR. Ah is a neutral card, but 7h has to be a somewhaet bad card to bluffcatch. I will bluff hands that do not contain a heart more frequently, but I will at least bluff some 76 combos with the 7h at some low frequency.
All in all I think the hand is OK as a bluffcatcher, but depending on what range he x/back on the flop (HU he should just CB 100%), this one should not have to call rivers, so he must assume population is overbluffing the spot (he called very quickly and I am an unknown to him).
What do you guys think of the call, the combo and the implicated assumptions about pop tendencies?