SB: (408.7 bb)
Hero (BB): (141.5 bb)
CO: (196.3 bb)
BTN: (236.3 bb)
SB posts 0.5, Hero posts BB 1.00
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5) Hero has Jc Ah
2 folds, SB raises to 3.00, Hero calls 2.00
Flop: (6.00, 2 players) Ks Ac 5d
SB checks, Hero bets 2.00, SB calls 2.00
Turn: (10.00, 2 players) Tc
SB checks, Hero bets 6.66, SB raises to 18.33, Hero calls $12.00.
River: (46.85, 2 players) 6c
SB bets 23.33, Hero folds
50 hands on villain, nothing strange. But my pool is pretty small and I havn't seen him before so I would guess with something like 75% certainty he's some sort of recreational.
I would expect he can cbet alot on this flop due to his range advantage. I don't hate betting 33% with range in his shoes. X is a bit unusual I suppose, I think I have a pretty clear value bet, not sure about my sizing, I decided to go small thinking that his XC range is probably going to be really capped. Also I don't need any protection at all. For this sizing I can bluff cheaply a lot against what I would assume is a population who might XF this spot after missing flop CB.
Turn gives him some 2ps and the occasional straight if he goes XC with those types of hands, but I'm not worried at all here, I continue to valuebet against weak Ax, Kx etc. I face the 3x raise and I get pretty confused. Suddenly his seemingly capped range goes bananas. I think that if he goes for a play such as this, he's also "capable" of having straights, 2 pairs and maybe even sets here. He could just have a flush/straight draw however, or a random spazz, and I have tpgk+nut gssd so I'm not going anywhere for this sizing, maybe it's a bit naive to call turn vs unknown probable rec?
Flush gets in on the river... I think I have a decent hand and solid blockers for a call. My price is pretty good too, only need to be right 25% of the time. Am I though? What is he bluffing with here? How would you play this?