UTG Straddle to $1.
Next to act is a guy who talks about solvers and using Flopzilla (though I'm pretty sure he was successful maybe 10 years ago, he doesn't know how to use Pio [I mean, neither do I but I don't go talking about it in a live home game], he probably hasn't touched Flopzilla in years) He's been complaining about the evening in a jovial manner. He's down maybe $10 from his $140 buy-in, there's been 300bb pots pretty frequently and I'm sure he's at least a little tilted that he hasn't gotten to take advantage of any of those scenarios. White guy in his mid 30's with a beard, he's also a teacher. We're nearing the end of his session. He opens to $3 off $130.
In the cutoff, we have a super lag who may or may not be breakeven to a winner on a technical standpoint in our game, he drinks and he tilts pretty quickly. He buys in for $200 at what is 80% of the time a $.25/.50 game, and adds on cash as he dwindles (usually in $100 increments) He 3bets very wide, probably all pairs, suited connectors down to 76s, suited one gappers like T8s, J9s, suited broadway, broadway aces. He 3bets to $10
Our game has a lot of 3bet bluffing from the same people, but there's very very little 4betting that isn't just a linear range. It's usually QQ+, AK and then is more pairs and AQ+ for the aggressive players. I feel confident in this read, but could easily be swayed by seeing a showdown or bluff that tells me otherwise. I've been playing with these people for over a year.
I am in the small blind with QcQd. Because I expect the lag to call with only maybe 1/3 of the combinations that he 3b with, and I expect him to actually cbet the flop 100% of the time when checked to (this is a leak of his - maybe not 100%, but he's cbeting A4 on KT5 if checked to heads up or three ways), I thought it was going to be more profitable to check/shove any non Ace/King flop (assuming the original opener just calls here, which is probably happening) than to 4bet and bet the flop shove the turn. I've never been in a scenario where I thought that would be the case, as it's not really often I run into people 3betting 20% and cbetting 100%, but this felt right in the moment.
I call. Folds to SolverGuy who calls.
Check, check, Lag bets a single green chip for $25. He has $100 in 20's and maybe $15 in whites and reds.
I jam $80
Solver calls with $40 behind.
This is obviously not standard 6 handed only 90bb deep (straddled pot), and I have to be really confident in my reads on lag for this to be more profitable than 4betting. 20% 3bet, 100% cbet when checked to. With stats like that, can anyone comment on this kind of range shift?