[50NL 6max] Raised on river with 2pair
Posted by round2
Posted by
round2
posted in
Low Stakes
[50NL 6max] Raised on river with 2pair
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
SB: $50.00
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $26.83
MP: $106.21
CO: $50.00
BN: $68.03
BB: $50.00 (Hero)
UTG: $26.83
MP: $106.21
CO: $50.00
BN: $68.03
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is BB with
9
J
, , ,
Flop
($3.25)
8
J
9
,
Turn
($8.15)
8
J
9
A
,
River
($19.85)
8
J
9
A
K
,
Villain is a smart regular running at 24/20.
BTN steal - 48%
Cbet flop in SRP - 49%
Fold flop vs donkbet - 30%
Call flop donkbet - 39%
Raise flop donkbet 32%
Fold to turn donkbet - 17%
Some factors to consider:
1) villain doesn't like folding to donkbets
2) our sizing on the river may look like a scared value bet (set or 2pr etc.)
I don't think he's jamming anything less than a flush for value on the river. I would be surprised if he jammed a hand like AK with a diamond for value. I'd also expect just a call from QT. So villain is either turning a hand into a bluff (Ad5x etc, or a hand like 9xTd etc.) or had flopped a flush.
Do you call or fold and why?
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