Hey Krzysztof Slaski ,
Thanks for the detailed reply, I agree with all your points.
As far as my journal, I'll likely start posting again eventually. I just got lazy with it and haven't updated it in a while lol
Edit - as far as river is concerned, do you like OB jamming if river is not Ax but is a brick (2d for example)?
Oct. 18, 2018 | 3:50 p.m.
Flatting a 4bet after squeezing is just never squadoosh here
I think that's a mistake to generalize like this. This player is folding 19% to 4-bets and is relatively liberal with his squeezing/3-betting frequencies over a few k hands.
Oct. 17, 2018 | 6:07 p.m.
MP: $72.64 (Hero)
Oct. 17, 2018 | 4:34 p.m.
BB: $57.43 (Hero)
Oct. 17, 2018 | 4:22 p.m.
lower Axs and smaller pocket pairs should be heavily mixed pre-flop
and that 3 betting them 100% of the time is pretty exploitable
Agree with this from a theoretical stance. From a practical sense, playing 3-bet or fold does have its advantages though, mainly in simplifying the game tree for you.
and, as I said, a smart, aware bb will expand his cold 4 betting range
if you are 3 betting 20% of the time vs the btn from the sb. so 5 bet
jamming these hands vs a cold 4 bet is even more suicidal (his range
is much tighter than the openers, and he has only 1 bb invested) and
now you are probably folding much more than 50% of the time vs 4 bets.
It's only suicidal if he's not out of line, in which case, it would be very spewy to jam A5s/55. I think that'd be pretty bad to do in practice vs an unknown.
My 3-bet from the SB will also display around 20% from SB v BTN to anyone whose isolating this stat. However, that's not a static 20% and will range from 15-25% depending on the BTN's tendencies as well as how cold-4bet happy BB is. Vs a BB that is cold 4-betting out of line, I'll simply expand my 5-bet range, but not polarize it such that A5s or 55 is a 5bet jam (I'd be folding those in most cases unless BB is super out of line and I think I have a ton of FE). I'll just start jamming with AQs/TT etc. You can argue that those make better calls, but I don't think calling OOP vs the cold 4-bet with a hand that looks like what you're repping is that great.
Also, the BTN will also be helping you defend vs BB's cold 4-bets so you don't need to meet the MDF by yourself. Plus, because of how expensive it is to cold 4-bet, his play needs to work a lot more often and that translates to SB and BTN not having to defend as much.
now i'll just 4 bet call you with 88 and let you punt in A5s or 5s.
That's the right adjustment in some situations, but that doesn't make the A5s or 55 jam necessarily bad. If we have the right balance with FE and equity vs your 4b/calling range with A5s, then it's still a correct jam. Not to mention, the value portions of my range are now making more money than they would have otherwise because I get to get it in with TT vs 88 etc.
these hands don't play that great in 4 bet pots vs tight flatting
ranges. A5o vs a flatting range that is mainly big suited broadways,
big suited aces (which dominate us) and some low suited connectors
that are just looking to hit a random pair or FD to x jam on us. and
when we hit top pair with A5o or KJo it is not exactly disguised as
most of our 4 betting range revolves around Ax and Kx.
They don't have great playability, but that's the reason why we are considering them in the 4bet or fold region vs the call 3-bet region. They have good blocker properties and mainly we are looking for preflop FE. If a player with a nitty 3-bet % 3bets me, I'm folding these hands (and I'm probably over folding which is theoretically exploitable). If a player with a 60% fold to 4-bet, 20% call 4bet and 20% 5bet 3bets me, and there's no dynamic that would make me think he'll be playing differently against me, then I'm happy 4-betting Axo since we're essentially free rolling the flop. We have 2 cards (equity), position, and initiative. We also can fire cheap 25-33% c-bets that need to work very infrequently to profit on favorable board textures.
so yeah, I guess it's easy to come up with 4 bet bluffs on the button,
but it's not as easy to come up with ones that have some sort of
post-flop playability in 4 bet pots. where as the sb flatting range
consists of hands that are EXTREMELY playable and want to see a flop.
True. But going back to my previous point, it's okay that our bluffs will have poor playability. They're mostly banking on preflop FE and they don't need to make up a ton of EV when they see a flop, but because we will still have initiative and a 25-33% cbet is still quite effective when we miss/we can hit a hand from time to time, it can be a better option than folding preflop (and we can't call the 3-bet since the hand has poor playability and we wont have initiative/FE by calling.)
yeah it has to work more often, which means that we cannot 3 bet the
exact same range for 2x pot than we can for 1x pot. say we 3 bet 20%
for 2x pot from the sb vs the btn, now we have just given both the bb
and the button a sick price to just jam in 66 and print a ton of money
as we are folding like 75% of the time to jams. and there is just so
much money in the middle, that they will now be incentivised to do so.
and if you start 3 betting 2x pot, probably the bottom half of your 3
betting range is now gonna be -EV vs a decent player who realised that
his AQo is now the nuts here as a jam instead of a flat.
At 100bb, if BTN opens to 2.5x and SB 3bet to 10x, BB won't be able to jam 66 and print money. Of course if you're 3-betting 2.5x to 20x with a 20% range, that's a different story. But the BB will be forced to either CC 3bets or Cold 4-bet as a defense against the wide SB 3-bet vs BTN strategy vs most large but reasonable sized 3-bets.
Oct. 3, 2018 | 1:28 a.m.
The 20% 3bet range is linear in most cases. That means it includes a lot of low/mid pairs and A5s type hands that can 5b jam vs the right opponent (I'm mostly talking about a BTN that is trying to punish a wide 3b range by 4betting a ton). I don't know how profitable it'd be flatting a 4bet with A5s or 55. In my opinion, those hands make better 5-bets (assuming BTN is out of line 4-betting and is folding to a lot of 5-bets). I'd rather flat the 4-bet with hands like AQ/KQs etc. But A5s is a bit weak and will be tough to combat a 25%-33% range c-bet.
Also, it shouldn't be too hard to find 4-bet bluffs on the BTN. Hands like Ax offsuit, KJo etc. are not super enticing flats but make good candidates for a 4-bet.
As far as size of 3bet, it just means it has to work more often than if we just potted it. It of course will work more often also as most players will naturally defend less vs a larger size than vs a smaller size. With that said, I'm not super confident which sizing is better vs a bot. Vs a GTO opponent I'd guess it probably doesn't make much of a difference one way or the other. I prefer 3-betting larger myself (2.5 --> 10x, 3x --> 11x) though I see players making it much larger (to which I respond by defending a bit tighter).
Oct. 2, 2018 | 11:38 p.m.
As played, I'm never folding this. If he can show up with a hand that beats us after checking back flop and then calling turn, then he's also able to show up with a lot of weird hands that he's doing random things with.
While it's a weird spot for him to do this as a bluff, it's also very hard for him to have value as nothing makes sense except 1 combo of 44.
People don't check back sets or FDs very often vs a missed cbet on T9x dbl tone board. But, if he did, then he likely plays a lot of hands in a really weird way and therefore there's no way I find a fold here.
Not to mention with the pot odds you only have to be good only ~30% of the time.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 10:51 p.m.
I think you played the hand well. I'd size up turn though. Your range looks like it's going for a XC on the river with a high freq. so I don't expect villain to bluff a ton or to use that sort of sizing when he does bluff.
Blockbet is also a possibility vs. some players.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 7:29 p.m.
Vs described villain, I'd call river. There's 2 missed FDs which you don't block. You block AK/KK. Your hand looks a lot like 99-QQ (18 combos of underpairs to K, 3 of sets). Maybe even 88 which bumps that up to 24.
I don't think villain puts a lot of KQ after your range for calling a 3-bet pre in MP v UTG. (I think that it's potentially a dangerous spot to put yourself in if you're planning to play fit or fold OR if you're not planning to play fit or fold but your assumption of villain's range in this spot is off; which it can be as even if he likes to 3-bet you a lot, he may not do it as much from MP v UTG.) So that leaves 12 combos of AK that are calling, 3 combos of TT, not sure if you're calling the 3-bet pre w/22/55 vs wide range?
So considering all this, I think it's a relatively standard call here with your combo.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 7:20 p.m.
Ahh I see.
Someone with that name sat down at one of my tables yesterday and I thought it was you. But then he iso'd a limper to 10x w/A6o and that made me question if it's you as I see you posting here/working on your game a lot lol.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 7:10 p.m.
Couple of thoughts.
1) You have the perfect bluff catcher. You're blocking some of his main value combos (44 and clubs)
2) You're capped and your hand looks like an A9/TT type hand that went for thin value on the flop and is slowing down on turn or maybe 76/75s etc. You're probably always barreling turn with a set (or at least you should be).
3) You are very rarely XC'ing a bare FD (without pair) on the turn vs almost a PSB OOP. That means you have very few flushes in your range (going back to the previous point that you're capped in terms of flushes as well; not just boats).
So your strongest hands that you get to the river with here are 4cXc. Some of those you also XC flop with and so you don't even have all of those combos. So if you're folding T4cc, you're folding almost your entire range.
He could also show up with a smaller flush some non-0% of the time for value as your range is massively capped and he minraised BTN so he'll have many suited raggedy hands in his range that may very well play the flop/turn the same way.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 7:04 p.m.
I wouldn't say getting called is the end of the world. I think betting 35-40% on the flop 3-way here is fine. You'll get called by worse pairs and FDs enough of the time. Obviously we'd prefer a fold. But I wouldn't discount betting here altogether. From a GTO standpoint, I agree that your hand is likely X'ing flop a lot.
On the turn, that sizing does not scream strength at me. I think it's close because he can still have KJs/KTs/KQ and be using this sizing, but he could also be betting a FD or straight draw (which you block, which is a -ve). I would discount 8x though heavily. I think you can go either way on the turn and call some of the time/fold some of the time. Are you checking your KTs/KJs on the flop? If so you'll have some better hands to defend with. Plus, you likely have some 8x also that you XC flop with.
btw, are you ChaoRen777 on Stars?
Oct. 2, 2018 | 6:46 p.m.
Pre: probably a slightly losing call at 100bb vs a decent size 3bet without some specific read.
Flop: I think it's fine to either call or raise small. I'd probably call most of the time and raise small against someone whose got a wide range and is folding to flop raises frequently. You'll have opportunities to take it away on the turn/river by repping AQ/KQ if villain slows down when you call anyway.
Turn: K or J makes your hand a fold most likely on the river. Not sure why you think A is a bad card, it is actually an okay card. The only reason I'd call it bad is that KK or KQ might slowdown/fold to jam. I'd mix calling and jamming turn depending on player. Against an unknown I'm probably just calling and protecting my calling range as it's tough to have many bluffs on that turn when we jam.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 6:34 p.m.
You should understand when you should have a 3b/5b jamming range so that you can 5b jam when the situation calls for it. If you constrain yourself and say, "i'm never 5-bet jamming" or "i'm always 5-bet jamming A5s/A4s on top of my value range" then you will be burning money in a lot of spots. A GTO strategy will likely always 5-bet jam a # of combos on top of value range, but in practice, it's better to approach it based on player tendencies, or, if you're playing an unknown, based on population tendencies for the game/stake you're playing. At lower stakes, you can probably get away with 5-bet jamming less as a bluff in general (though it's not ideal still as there are opportunities to 5bet bluff jam vs certain players even at lower stakes), but as you move higher in stakes, good players will be able to play vs you very easily if you have a value only 5-bet range. Your fold to 4-bet will be very high or your 3-bet % will be very low, both of which, makes your opponent's lives easier.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 6:22 p.m.
What's his turn c-bet?
Pretty annoying spot. But, you're not capped and have KQ in your range as well as sets. QJ you're blocking KQ but also his most likely bluff AQ. So that cancels out.
I agree with Dan about having reverse implied odds here on an 8 river. His entire value range is pretty much composed of KQ so an 8 still gives you a bluff catcher. Given that you're OOP and you're very likely to be facing a river OB jam if you call turn, I would fold. Another thing is on a K, his most likely bluff (AQ), has you beat, or you're splitting. You'll always be guessing on the river which leads to many -EV decisions.
So I think folding is the best play with QJ. I'd rather defend with a set (or 2pr) where you have decent equity vs KQ, than QJ as there's 0 rivers where you feel great.
Oct. 2, 2018 | 6:12 p.m.
I think you played it fine. I don't think betting turn is good. You could b/f, but I think check plays better against 2 players. JTs is in both of their ranges at 100% freq. I think bet/bet T+R is too thin.
Sept. 27, 2018 | 1:24 a.m.
I think exploitatively it's fine to make this fold against regulars as I think it's a spot that is under bluffed. The problem is against fish/recs, this could be a big mistake. I'd check how many tables this player is playing and if he's 1 tabling, I'd probably call. If he's playing several tables, I think folding is okay.
Sept. 26, 2018 | 10:37 p.m.
I think the sizing looks very bluffy here. I think a smaller blocker bet repping JJ/TT/QTs would work better. You're really aiming to fold out the AK portion of his range here or a random JT/AJ type hand. You're giving yourself a bad price with the current sizing and it looks bluffier, imo, given how the hand played out.
Sept. 25, 2018 | 7 p.m.
Do you have any stats on the player?
I can see merit to both call and fold. I don't like villain's play at all and his line doesn't make much sense to me. A set should be either betting out or XR'ing the turn. I also think most players choose to XC with hands like AQhh. I don't think rivered 2pr is all too likely given pre. If he does have 2 pairs in his range though, then he has a lot more busted FDs as well as his range is really wide in that case.
I'm leaning more towards a call here and folding JhJx. We're getting a pretty good price also.
Sept. 25, 2018 | 6:15 p.m.
His sizing sequence does seem FOS to me, but if it isn’t and he’s just being fancy/confusing on purpose, he’s more likely beating us (or at least likely not calling a raise with hands that aren’t)
Some hands that do make sense are T8 and K8 and possibly 88 which we block but do not do well against.
If theres an exploitative reason to believe raising river is best (this player is just clicking buttons and isn’t thinking through hands) then we can of course raise. Or if there’s a very aggro post-flop dynamic with a reg potentially.
I’ll add that I don’t know how 5NL plays and it might be best to raise/fold river. I imagine there’s probably a fair amount of button clicking going on there