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Attacking a capped range on the river against a TAG.

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Attacking a capped range on the river against a TAG.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero: Qh Ac

V from UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB. Everyone else folds.

V is a Passive NIT. VP 14/ PR 12/ AF 0/ Hands abbreviation 83

Flop : (Hero against V) Js 4c 5h
V checks, Hero checks

Analysis; It is a dry board where I block hands from Vs opening range. Ax type of hands and Qx (e.g., QJ) which constitute a large proportion of Vs range. V also checks which caps his range as he should be betting in an unselective manner.
At this point, I believe that I am a favourite against V`s range but I want to keep his range wide, as some JX hands are still in his range.

Turn : (7.5 BB, 2 players) Js 4c 5h 9d
V checks, Hero bets 5.4 BB, UTG calls 5.4 BB

Analysis: V checks again which shows real weakness. At this point, Jx in Vs range is highly unlikely considering my blockers. Also, There is a straight draw on turn which I block. V most likely has either two over cards, or a suited connector (eg, 87, 98), Basically V has a marginal hands. Therefore, I have attacked Vs check with a 75% pot bet and V checked me. At this point I thought that V either has a 9x, or pocket 77 or pocket 88. Jx was a tiny proportion of his range.

River : (18.3 BB, 2 players) Js 4c 5h 9d Kc
V checks, Hero checks

Analysis: Kc on the river has scared me a bit so I decided to check back. However, after post hand analysis, I have concluded that I should attacked Vs check with an over-bet as his range following another check was very weak. Basically, Me having AQ, and considering Vs open from UTG. I basically block a large portion of Vs range. I block Vs Kx and Jx, i.e., AK, KQ, AJ, QJ. I also block a straight draw (Q10). V has opened from UTG so he is not going to open with a Kx or Jx with a weak kicker, so Kx or Jx are very unlikely to be in his range considering that V did not show strength at any street.
Most likely, V has something between TT, 9x, 88 or 77. Therefore, I should have attacked the V`s check with a 1.2x pot bet to make him fold anything worse that the second best pair.

Based on MDF. I need to steal the pot 54% of the time to profit. I block the majority of Vs premium range; Kx, Jx. Therefore, V has basically 77, 88, 9x, TT in his range. Given the sizing. I dont think that V will be defending blindly defending according to MDF with 44% of his range and will fold anything worse than TT which is only a tiny proportion of his range.

V shows 9h 8h (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 40%, Flop 29%, Turn 86%)

Hero mucks Qh Ac (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 60%, Flop 71%, Turn 14%)

Is that a correct conclusion? Or Should I change the bet size?

Thanks for any help.

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