Choosing best cbet size

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Choosing best cbet size

Live 1-3

So ill start off with the hand, and then my thoughts about it in general. Mostly interested in the flop decision as the rest of the hand I think is standard

We get a limp in the HJ from a loose aggressive thinking player who covers. He isn't theory thinking or "good", but he seems good enough to beat the live games, but has a ton of leaks, for example limping instead of raising, cold calling 3b's in sb with things like 65s, etc. I have the impression that he is a bit sticky and is reading into bet sizing and stuff.

Anyways, he limps HJ

Hero is on Bttn w QTdd $500 eff, we isolate to $16
HJ calls

Flop 944hhd
Pot = $30
He checks
We cbet $10
He calls

Turn Tx
He checks
We barrel $35

Riv is a 3x
he checks
Pot is $119
We bet $80 (Think 2/3-3/4 is good here. I exploitatively used 2/3 because I think it represents all the missed draws, and I really want him to be calling me with 9x here, so giving him a slightly better price to hopefully never find hero folds; maybe still better to go the full 3/4 because we will have loads of bluffs here I think, however I very well may underbluff this because I expect alot of hero calls when we get here and all the draws miss)

Anyways, I was thinking, on the flop...

When we use a 1/3 sizing, even though it may be good at equilibrium, I think it may not be the highest EV line practically.

A) when we use the smaller sizing with a range bet, I think we bring a player like this close to equilibrium, because he will accurately decipher that we are betting all of our range/may think we have a sizing tell and therefore float wider/check raise more. This obv isn't an issue when we have the better parts of our range.

However, if we were to use a 2/3 sizing here, cbetting $20 into $30, I think we just get more immediate folds. Now I don't know this for sure, but it does seem like this is the case most often in live games, because often when people cbet small in live, they are weak, and when they bet bigger, they are stronger. It seems like maybe this is a population tendency that we can tap into and take advantage of. We appear as the rest of the field appears to get the reaction we most often want, a flop fold. I suspect using this strategy dissuades light check raises and discourages light floats.

So exploitatively, I think deviating from the small bet plan to a 2/3 plan, even with our entire range, might hold a lot of merit here. Just curious if there is something glaring obvious that I am missing here. It makes alot of sense to me.

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