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179 points

Comment | ryanspicer commented on Mobius Poker Blog

High Quality Blog

Sept. 21, 2019 | 2:41 p.m.

Call call clean rivers 🧼

Sept. 21, 2019 | 2:37 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on 1-3 am I nitty?

Haha, maybe in the past I was more observant of this kind of stuff, playing mostly online. Last year however, I’ve been playing almost exclusively live, and thus it’s all about identifying their range and doing whatever you think will max exploit them

Sept. 20, 2019 | 3:38 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on nl200z multiway

FWIW, I think I’d start with a flop bet having the recreational in the hand, but obviously with this strength of hand, and if you want some Tx in range for checking back, this one seems okay. I do think a hand like JT makes a better check back however as it get overcarded slightly less.

I think the fact that the Ad isn’t on board, makes it way less likely he is overbettimg a hand like Kd w blockers, right? And if he is overbettimg, he prob wants blockers in some way/be up against a capped range

So your range looks like some Axdx turn floats, maybe some 4/5x, some but few flush combos. I think you prob shouldn’t be checking back sets here with the rec involved.

I do think he can certainly be overbettimg a hand like KT as well, as your range looks quite capped.

Because our range looks capped and we hold trips, its really tempting for me to want to call. However, villain has so many valuecombos in range for being on the Bb, it makes me want to fold. He really chose a hard sizing to play against.

He has 20-24 nut/very strong combos(Kxdd+, boats, AT, maybe KT), so he needs 11/14 bluffs to be balanced for his sizing. What does he do with QdJx, KdJx, 7d6x, 8d7x. My initial reaction was to fold. But I think because A)our range is capped, this is one of the best combos we can call with outside of a few nut flushes, and because villain can show up with such a wide range, and is capable of bluffing too much(it’s very tempting to do so), id make the call.

Caveat, in MY games I’d fold because people are clearly underbluffing. So, it matters what your population is doing as well. I know you said population is underbluffing, so it could be a fold.

I just look at this, and I see myself being WAY out of wack bluff heavy, because I would look at my opponents capped range, and not really want to choose a smaller sizing and get snapped by Ax, I’d just overbet and expect a near 100% fold from everything but the nuts.

It’s def possible he’s overbluffing

I’m curious to see what some smarter players than me have to say :)

Sept. 20, 2019 | 2:27 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on 1-3 am I nitty?

Well, a 0ev play just takes you on a ride. I’d say there is psyche ev that is gained by not being in those situations. Ie, being able to play more/have better happiness ev.

I’m not saying overfold or whatever fwiw.

But yeah, adjusting ranges to not spew is obv a good idea, and feeling nitty or whatever isn’t helpful lol

Sept. 20, 2019 | 1:53 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on 1-3 am I nitty?

Lol, that doesn’t help. I’m still convinced it’s better to not three bet against this tight of a range

Sept. 20, 2019 | 3:35 a.m.

Post | ryanspicer posted in NLHE: 1-3 am I nitty?

So this is something that kinda comes up often in the live games I play, and it feel very tight, but I think it makes sense

Example 1
Guy in his 50’s who’s limped in a few times already makes it $13 on button w $250-$300 stack and a limper ahead(this is clearly bad preflop sizing for how the games play, and he’s been limping)....

Because he is limping, what I tend to see if a lot of people have stronger than average raising ranges, even from the button.(another thing too is people don’t want to be “chop blockers” and will fold rather than steal wide )

Anyways, hero has a hand like JTs in the sb. Usually this is a slam dunk 3b against a normal range, but if villain is opening like AJ+, KQ+, 88+, QJs+ mayyyybe just maybe QJo, it seems to me like the best thing is to just 3b a very tight linear range, something like AJs+, AQo+ etc, TT+

Example two
Younger guy, maybe 30’s, who’s been kinda tight, has limped, seems passive, makes it $17 on button w 2 limpers(earlier made it $12 w a limper w AJo). $200 stack

Again I interpret his range to be very strong. We have AJo on Bb and just fold pre, prob reraising like AQo, TT and better. Maybe AJs, but maybe also just a flat to keep the wide ranges in and not pump money into a tight range)

Am I being a straight up nit or is this appropriate? It seems fine to me(maybe in second example we still 3b AJs)

Sept. 20, 2019 | 12:09 a.m.

I just take the ratio and subtract then multiply by betsize


We face half pot size bet 1:4
We have FD 1:5.5

1.5xbet size= amount I need to expect to make

Sept. 19, 2019 | 11:16 a.m.

What do you think about the flop?

A good friend of mine says he’d check flop(and I respect his opinion a lot here) says he’d check and go for a bet bet line on turn/river

If you did bet, what sizing do you choose and why?

Sept. 15, 2019 | 10:56 p.m.

Maybe, we can exploit overbluff here tho.

I think if we ship it, villain can fold things like AK, KJ KT missed draws, AQ. That’s a lot of combos, at least 14, but probably more. So we net like 7k plus(prob more), and only lose $750 when he has the top of his range T9/QQ/77 that get here, meaning we lose maybe 4K or less. I could see KQ maybe even folding sometimes. If he has more AK preflop, I think this would mostly fold as well.

So, maybe we can bluff all AT and JT, and could possibly get away w AJ if he is overfolding, this May be taking it too far tho.

Then could bet the blocker sizing with sets, twonpair, overpairs... TPTk

Sept. 14, 2019 | 6:30 p.m.

I’m really not sure about this sim tho practically. I think he shows up here with T9s at close to 100%. Maybe it gets turn raised some w the combo draw, but the non FD combos I think get flat on turn.

So when we overbet ship, that’s 3-4 but combos, so we can’t really go that thin. I’m not even sure 77 gets calls by really anything worse. There’s only 2 KQ combos, and 3 straights, plus potential slow play sets of QQ(but we can prob discount this)

Seems like maybe the only hand we want to overbet ship is like JThh JTcc, JTss, then ship T9s

Given our overbet size, we get like 1.5:1 value to bluff frequency.

Everything else, maybe the blocker bet works well for, using hands like A7, A9 that get here

Sept. 14, 2019 | 6:21 p.m.

Looking at your sim, I don’t have J9s in opening range, but do have all Axs. No ATo either.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 5:15 p.m.

I don’t think shoving is good here given we have 2x pot behind($750ish)and I think he can have 4 combos of T9ss.

I also think it’s quite reasonable he can flat at least some QQ here given positions and all fish behind. Think he can also slow play some sets to the river thinking I pitch top pair to a raise. So I’m hesitant to just be ripping that much in into an uncapped range

I also think the only bluff combos he’s really show up with is ATdd, AJdd, and JT, making 6 combos., so not sure about the c/c

I don’t see the point in the blocker bet w Aj either, could you explain that one?

I was kinda thinking a slight overbet not blocking the diamonds and blocking AK seemed reasonable. Maybe AT is better for this because it blocks T9 and AK. Something like $475 into $450.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 3:43 p.m.

Post | ryanspicer posted in NLHE: 2-5 Hand played against reg

UTG straddle from recreational 1k effective
Hero raise AhJc LJ to $40 1k effective

HJ is a Live Reg who flats much wider than you would see in an online game... Have seen him flat 86s in the SB before as an overcall against a like 6x open raise before, so he can really get out of line flatting too much. Expect him to flat things like T9s, QTs, KTs, AQo, 22+ maybe even Axs or something as weak as 98s; theres also the straddle behind so think he can have some hands here that flat wanting to play a pot in position with some fish in the blinds, he is 1.5k effective

Goes heads up to the flop
KhQs7d Pot = $90
Hero bets $50

Turn 8d
Pot = $190
Hero bets $130

River 6h
Pot = $450

I get the impression that a 3rd barrel may get hands like KT/KJ to fold here; I do think that he can have some AK, flatting to keep the players behind in play. T9s had a double gutter on turn, so he is definitely not capped.

Just kinda curious about general thoughts on flop/turn/river. I wasn't sure what the solver approach would be here, so just defaulted towards something standardish.... I figured I should be betting frequently on the flop given the KQx texture is really good for my range, and having a big polarity advantage.

Sept. 14, 2019 | 8:37 a.m.

Wow, rereading this, I really butchered this hand. Im pretty sure my 3b pre was $52.... in the spot I miscalculated the pot and made my cbet based on there being $160 in the middle. I’m actually quite surprised how egregious this hand is. I fucked up all over the place. And it was due to my own insecurities that had been building up since the previous session, and wanting a specific result too much. When I just got to let it go and just focus on my game and playing my best, and letting the results happen as they will, not letting them matter so much on a day to day. Wanting a result really distracts me from playing my best

Sept. 13, 2019 | 7:45 p.m.


“Facing uncertainty or making mistakes is to be used as inspiration on where to focus our efforts in gaining deeper understanding and therefore improving. Having a spot where you’re uncertain, or making a mistake, is actually a blessing in disguise because it’s a highlight of an area where you can improve upon.”

I wrote this in my journal before my session yesterday.

There’s been a situation in live games where people have generally stronger raising ranges, that I had been having mixed feelings over; that is, can we really be flatting/overcalling hands as strong as KQs, KTs as opposed to reraisng/squeezing ? Coming from an online background where people have wider ranges on average, it’s been tough to reel in the temptation to squeeze when I see a raise, and then a subsequent flat from an insanely wide range.

Now, of course there are times where a squeeze is going to still be appropriate, but a situation last night highlighted just how wrong a squeeze can go when a player is only raising, maybe 5% of hands preflop

The spot went as follows:
Passive old man raises to $13 at 1-3 w a $350 stack HJ

Woman calls CO w likely a very very wide range, including offsuit Broadway’s, suited connectors/gappers, offsuit Ax etc.

Hero looks down at KQs. I don’t feel enthusiastic about a 3b here, understanding the initial raiser is likely on a range of something like TT+, AQ, AK. But then I tell myself, KQs is just too strong to not 3b here, and by flatting I’m playing “weak”; I’m paraphrasing here, but that’s the general notion of the vague idea I had in my head at the time... I don’t want to be weak! 3bet here we go!

We make it $52, old man calls, lady folds

We get a flop J8xdd( we have KQdd)

He checks
We bet $75, setting up a turn 2/3 pot size shove..... he calls

Turn 9
He checks
I think to myself, that’s actually a prettt bad card, maybe I should check here.... villain has JJ in range, QQ, some 99(don’t know if he raises or limps this). Even a hand like TT May call vs a shove having the oesd...

I think to myself, well, maybe he has AJ in range that will fold to a shove. Long story short, I get stubborn and ship it, and get snapped by KK.... ouch....

I reflect upon this, and it’s clear where it all went wrong. 3betting a range that’s at best 7% of hands, and more likely closer to 5%....

The ideas and notions I had in my mind of “weak”, “strong”, etc, are useless. All egoic constructs. I felt insecure about the situation, played on impulse, and spewed an extra $200 unnecessarily....

It hurt in the moment, but having the frame of mind, that it was a mistake I needed to make, and that was coming sooner or later as a lack of understanding on playing against these uber tight ranges, helped create some meaning and value in making it.

I’m reminded of a quote I heard

“The mistakes we make are already built into our winrate”

It’s true.

I went on to book a winning session, but it bugged me to think that I could’ve been up another 200-300 had I just understood the situation a little better, and had more discipline and confidence in deviating from the “norm” to play exploitively(and passively) preflop, taking advantage of an opponents unbalanced strategy.

“Not counting all the flaws and holding it against yourself”

I wrote this in my journal after the hand played out, to remind myself that dwelling on my mistakes and where I “could be” wasn’t going to help me play better, but was merely going to distract me from observing the continuing action at the table, leading to more inaccurate assessments.

I think it’s important to remember that this is a game we are playing. We’re going to fuck up, and that’s not to be avoided. It’s to be accepted.

For a long time I wanted to “study to avoid mistakes”, and would then go on to feel overwhelmed, trying to think of some arbitrary scenario that would somehow give me insight into playing like a poker god. When in reality it’s the pain of fucking up(actually fucking up strategically, not just getting a bad result you didn’t want) that should motivate you to analyze, discuss, improve, and fill the gap of misunderstanding. The mistakes, uncertainty and missteps are guideposts to where we can focus our energy when looking to study. Our experience informs where to study.

I’m reminded of a quote from ego is the enemy, that I’ll have to paraphrase for now:

We want our words to create our experience, when in reality, it’s our experience that creates our words.

Essentially saying, our ego wants to be comfortable, to not be made a fool, and our words to somehow make things happen while we sit
Comfy and above the pain of stumbling. But the stumbling experience itself actually creates the ability to describe in any meaning.

Sept. 13, 2019 | 7:07 p.m.

However, I think it is really close with this specific combo and it really depends what he does with top pair. Id expect some top pair to fold river, but its hard to say how much actually does. I think theres also a risk that live players tend to slowplay more than average, however this guy is pretty aggressive so maybe it doesnt apply here. However, if he is slow playing some two pair/flushes, it does make it more marginal. I think that I dont mind a 3 barrel, and expect it to be pretty close to break even. I think that barreling turn is prob okay as well as long as he is playing a wide range that includes offsuit combos, as this will make it hard for him to defend enough combos on the turn. I also dont mind a check, but prob prefer a turn bet with a river give up to this. I think 3 barreling all Kh and Ah blockers tho in this situation will be pretty good.

Sept. 12, 2019 | 5:45 a.m.

looking at his range in flopzilla after we barrel turn, he's going to have like 60 combos of 9x. I think 9x prob folds ALOT on the river facing a third barrel all in, so maybe a strong play would be to bet half pot on turn, he likely raises alot of his flushes, and then we can rip the river 3/4 + on most runouts, expecting 9x to not call a river shove after the 3 flush comes on the turn and we keep barreling. I think by the time the river comes around, alot of flushes will be mitigated. If I had the Kh or Ah in hand, I think this is certainly the play. I'm going to be way out of wack, but I think even a fishy player will have a hard time calling 3 barrels here with a weak top pair hand

Sept. 12, 2019 | 5:32 a.m.

I think he can MAYBE bluff raise turn, but I'd guess infrequently.

I think he will likely fold 7x no heart on turn... i think what makes it really interesting is if he is C/Ring Axhh or combo draws, then the H is actually not that great for him. Additionally, if he is limp calling a hand like T8o, J8o, JTo, 86o, then thats a shit ton of draws that fold to a turn barrel. I think its possible for 9x no heart to fold turn sometimes as well, maybe like a 96s

Sept. 12, 2019 | 5:20 a.m.

Post | ryanspicer posted in NLHE: Turn decision 1-3 Live

2 Limps
Hero raise QhJc to $21 on button
First limper calls and is a pretty splashy recreational and has around $250 behind
Second limper folds

Pot = $42

Hero bet $25

turn 4h
Pot = $92

I'm tempted to barrel here with the Qh in hand, and villain potentially having stuff like A7, A2, T8o etc in range. I think the only better turn bluff combo for me in this spot would be like AhTx that I raised button with, or KhQx. If I am barreling this combo, I am prob def way out of wack, however I don't think it matters much if villain is going to show up with a wide range/raise some NFD and combo draws on the flop. Maybe I'm overthinking this and barreling is a good exploit. It's really hard for me to want to check back the turn tho. It's possible I could bluff a K/A river as well to target 9x

Sept. 12, 2019 | 4:52 a.m.

I'd prob call flop, call turn, fold river. Think folding the flop is a catastrophe as I'd expect some pure air hands to take this like, some gutters, FD's, 99 etc. On turn, think alot of things like A4/76/fd's may follow thru on turn. On river however after getting called twice, and all draws missing, think the PFR will slow down quite a bit, therefore I would fold river IluxaVag

Sept. 11, 2019 | 5:12 p.m.

im not relying on PIO to make my decisions; im using it to spot trends and deviating based on how i think population plays. Also using node lock feature to see ideas for adjustments

Sept. 9, 2019 | 3:19 a.m.

I was doing some modeling in PIO, and found it taking a 1/3 sizing for 3 streets plan with alot of value and bluffs.

I suppose it makes sense because it targets underpairs and missed FD on the river. I'm suspect that an underpair folds to a 1/3 river sizing, as I can see myself using that kind of sizing in an attempt to get called more by that specific region against a weaker player. So maybe a good exploit would be to bet 1/3 and check turn alot with some showdown hands like AQ/AJ that hold a spade, and then bet again with hands like QJ, bluffing 1/2 on non spades and value betting 1/3 or 3/4+ with our value hands, depending on where we fall on the spectrum. Exploitively going very big with an AK type hand, and then more in the 1/3 region with something like KJ

Sept. 8, 2019 | 6:31 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on Big bluff 200 NL

IluxaVag I’d probably bet in the half pot region, mainly because I don’t know a strong reason to go smaller/bigger in this spot.

If I put my critical thinking cap on however, I imagine it’s good to not use a 1/3 range bet here because in these positions we have less hands that want to bet for protection, something like 66-TT, as we might only be 3betting 99+ at any high frequency(maybe we do 3b 88, depends on game), so I suppose going the half pot or greater sizing with a more polarized strat is a viable option.

If we are going to bet here at a high frequency, then I suppose a 1/3 sort of makes sense, as we will have pairs that need protection and we can fold out portions of air.

My initial idea was to just cbet, but I think Hugo is actually making a good play by being more selective with his Cbets due to the positions and the nuttedness of the oop range (all sets being represented), and opting for a check behind strat. If he’s not range betting, I am going to guess he goes at least half pot on flop, but o could be wrong.

My reserve for range betting here lands in the idea that by doing this, we are going to have a hard time being balanced on later streets, as there’s a lot of AK and AQ combos plus all the other stuff in play. I guess the 1/3 sizing does work pretty good tho having those in it.

I find myself seeing viability for both, and I’m not sure which is better. I’m sure someone else can do a better job than I here

This reminds me a bit of the difference between Bttn vs Bb and Bttn vs SB

Agains tbe Bb, I’d be more inclined to cbet 1/3 with hands like AK/AQ for thin value and protection, while against the SB I’d want to be more polarized and start with a larger bet because by doing so I’m targeting his narrow range with a range of value hands and equity that intend to barrel and remain aggressive.

If he has a condensed range then the 1/3 sizing doesn’t accomplish much as we will have too much air to stay aggressive in a balanced manner.

Because he chose a small 3b size, this does make me think that the 1/3 size postflop is prob preferred where people are going to defend more as a flat rather than a 4-b, but had the preflop sizings been a big larger, I’d want to be more
Selective as I’d be expecting a much more condensed and strong range with less air in it.

All this being said, is like to hear HugO thoughts here on the situation and how he is viewing this

Sept. 7, 2019 | 11:50 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on Big bluff 200 NL

I think we can just fold the turn TBH.

I would tend to cbet flop, especially when you 3b so small(keeping his range wider)

I think he has 22-TT here and some combos of JJ, and then can have Tx combos, making for like over 60 combos of hands that are ahead against AK. I think AQo gets folded in these positions preflop at a fair clip.

So we are bluff catching against some KJs, QJs, AJs type of hands/combos. A lot of them end up having pretty good equity against us in the form of a FD or sharing an out with one of our own creating some RIO. Cant really think of a great reason to make a call on the turn, and we have another street of aggression to face, and unless we think we can profitably call down with A high, I dont see why we defend here.

Sept. 7, 2019 | 7:21 p.m.

2 limps, 1 ep and 1 on button, both very wide ranges $250 stacks

Hero Raise AhJd SB $22
Bb cold calls and is prob flatting things like suited Broadway’s, some offsuit Broadway’s, suited connectors, suited Ax, maybe some suited gappers, first limper folds, button limper call and is going to be very wide here

Bb stack is $300
Bttn stack $250
We cover

Flop KK4ss

Flop sizing and what Hands want to two and 3 barrel?

I’m torn between a 1/3 and 1/2 size cbet.

I’m leaning towards 1/3, but the FD makes me want to go closer to 1/2 and be more polarized/selective(not cbetting QQ for example; also this is prob exploitively good for other reasons like letting T9 catch a pair, we can bluff catch)

Typically I think the best 3 barrel bluff here would be QJ I think as it blocks KQ and KJ, but since people flat AK here in live, I think the best 3 barrels will be AJ/AQ no spade(non spade runouts of course)

Sept. 7, 2019 | 6:37 p.m.

Yeah this is a spot in live I’d often just fold. When you’re this deep, and in these positions, think people end up having almost pure KK/AA.

If you have something to indicate he has bluffs then you can call. But honestly, it’s so rare I’d be pretty comfortable folding here preflop. This isn’t going to be the place you print a lot of money in live, and there’s a lot of places to print in live. I’d fold and move on with life and just observe table
Dynamics and make adjustments. I would tank fold and say nice hand

I see you said he flatted QQ earlier vs a 3b. If he flats that, think it’s likely AK gets flatted too, and think it’s quite standard in live environments

Sept. 7, 2019 | 6:20 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on 2-5 Live

We do miss value from pair plus FDs and combo draws however by not shoving. However, I think some of these get raised on flop

Sept. 7, 2019 | 5:10 p.m.

Comment | ryanspicer commented on 2-5 Live

I don’t think it’s that far fetched to imagine a player who is clearly gambling to call w a weak draw at a higher freq vs a 58% size bet vs a 78% size bet with a small amount behind.

The earlier Hands when he was making big call offs were 1) for a smaller amount ($275), and b) he did have a FD w a gutshot, which is a little different.

So just thought that we could induce mistakes from a greater part of his range by choosing a size other than shove and leaving a tiny bet comparitvely on the river.

All this being said however, I think the main point of focus is on the flop, and had I sized a little bigger there, I’d have a more appropriate turn shove based on the specific player involved

Sept. 7, 2019 | 5:08 p.m.

5x is pretty good in this game tbh. I hardly ever get played back at and people way over fold their equity and never check raise bluff on turn, so I basically get to cbet way too much post flop and fold out a ton of equity.

When the conditions of the game are

1) I don’t get 3bet off my equity preflop, meaning I get to basicallly always realize my hands full equity in position against a player I can stack with any reasonable hand, the value of hands in general shoots way up

2) I’m rarely going to make a mistake folding the best hand because people are playing so passively

3) people are not floating and only continuing when they have a front equity piece or showdown, and then additionally playing it passively, I think it becomes very profitable to raise larger and raise wider to capitalize on their mistakes

Sept. 7, 2019 | 5:01 p.m.

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