you definitely edited that :P lol
guess I missed that one
July 21, 2021 | 2:43 p.m.
you should probably mention your stack size :)
but since i know your stack size was around 750, i think you can flop raise like 300-330, and will get a ton of respect. if called, I think you can go ahead and jam turn vs the MP player and try to get stuff to fold there. I dont think we get to check fold with the SPR on turn being low, so probably good to realize as much fold equity as possible, and we probably have some since our line looks so strong.
the interesting thing is if we raise flop to 300ish and the shorter player goes all in, AND the MP player calls. then turn is weird, because we are going to see a showdown regardless. guess checking is the cheapest way to do that so we do that and hope for a cheap showdown/improve
July 19, 2021 | 4:40 p.m.
2:33 - KsTh on 8s5s7h; you mention barreling on things like 2c/2d. Will you be barreling a hand like this basically 100% of time? this is something I like never do, but think it may be a spot i might be missing bluff opportunities with when having low equity hands like this. This board is a bit special as its very connected and alot of pair+draws are present, but on a slightly more dry board, do you find yourself firing alot of 2 barrels effectively(and dare i say), overdoing it as an exploit?
17:45 - KJo:
I like the fold, he can still have some KTo as well, or maybe J9, so dont think its that that narrow, and also prob underbluffed. Imagine you have some AhJx in range here due to the 1/3 cbet and having BDNFD, so thats already a better Jx to defend. or KhJx, although some of the KJ combos with a heart in them maybe check raised more often. Im cool folding this, and if I want to defend a Jx hand, prob want to have a heart in hand to block their value. KhJx is a good candidate
19:00 - JTo:
what do you think about check raising turn? We prob are checking most of our range on that turn, including ATo, T9s, KQ, maybe T9o given the min raise, and he probably cbets a good portion of that hand on flop, so his range is semi capped at KJ, which we block. Maybe better to reserve this for when we have a club in hand, as to not overdo it, but seems very viable. Thoughts?
June 20, 2021 | 11:37 p.m.
i guess my reason would be that while we give him a free river when he has a draw, that that isn't outweighed by the sheer amount of stronger hands in his range. Like say if we could know his range, and it broke down to something like 40 Jx combos and 30 bluffs, theres literally more hands that beat us than that we beat, additionally, those bluffs will often have significant equity, so why would we be wanting to jam into a range that has more hands that beat us than hands that we are ahead of. thats what i am not understanding i suppose.
the only thing I can think of, is that we dont get to get value from say clubs or an OESD, or deny equity from something like KQ. I guess if we are never planning to fold the river, then I can see why jamming turn would just be better, as the money is going in regardless, and by not jamming we just miss value from the portion of his range that is drawing.
I suppose im just very used to extremely passive games at this point where i would still consider folding the river an option, as the people in my games(live 1-3/2-5) are almost never firing a third bullet as a bluff, but may have 2 barrels in them. I guess in that case it might make sense to call if we are confident we can fold to a 3rd barrel at near perfection.(and not get stacked when they have top pair+; which may make it worth letting them realize their equity, still might be wrong here tho)
June 17, 2021 | 8:43 p.m.
3:18 - Why jam rather than just call? it leaves an awkward stack size on river, but do you really think his range is wide enough here to merit a jam>call? (clearly you do since you did it). Could you elaborate a bit?
Obv if he has K2 in range thats one thing, but prob not standard right, and still has fair amount of Jx like AJo, KJs, QJs, JTs, etc. Just hard for me to see why a jam would be preferred to a call if he has more Jx+ in range than other stuff. If he has like 30+ value combos, does he really have 30+ draws/worst hands? Id think not(before seeing the K2s lol). Curious if you can try to express your view on this spot to help me understand what leads you to this play, as I think id generally be calling the turn
EDIT: i do see that you mentioned that he can have stuff like KQ KT QT etc, but still, that would be like 24 combos, and some of that might get filtered out if he folds pre flop or doesnt take the bet/bet line. So still hard for me to justify a jam here unless I thought the guy could be really wide preflop and be aggressive with those hands postflop. I guess there are some suited Ax, but even then, theres not that many combos, and as he defends wider with stuff like KJo, then that obv cuts alot into us being able to get value from him. interesting spot though regardless and hope you can offer some clarification
June 17, 2021 | 2:08 p.m.
PSA: there's a really cool piece of software out called Jurojin; its completely free and allows you to preset bet sizes preflop, use percentages of pot postflop, as well as set hotkeys if you wish. Worth checking out and using playing on Bovada/Bodog
June 7, 2021 | 6:33 p.m.
something someone pointed out in a discord forum im a part of, is that AxQs is probably a better candidate for this line, as this will increase the amount of Asx in the first players turn range and give him way way more hands to fold to the river bet with. It is interesting is they could somehow have a hand like As8x that could hero because we are repping a nut flush, or somewhere in that vicinity, but most will still prob just click fold. I do think that its fine or even good to give up against an unknown rec alot because they might just find way lighter calls than we are expecting which would torch our bet. But think not blocking the As definitely makes it more attractive and probably good
June 4, 2021 | 2:49 p.m.
Hero raise AsQx UTG 3x 100bb
New guy with 100BB who has played 6/9 hands so far calls on my left
Tighter player who seems loose passive calls Bttn w 80bb stack(guessing alot of broadways, PP's, suited connectors/gappers, maybe some suited Kx.
I start with a check here, and probably okay doing this with range, planning to do some check raising very polar, and facing check backs, can do alot of turn betting/overbets with various parts of range.
I consider a overbet, but decide on a 70% lead, they both call
River is a blank 2x
I decided to give up here given I got called in two spots, and was concerned that the loose guy on my left can be uncapped given he is likely a fun player, but in hindsight, even if this is the case, I think they both just have alot of weak Kx in range, so even if they call with some flat called AK, and have some slowplayed sets/flushes, theres still a ton of Kx like KTo, KJo, KQ, that will have a hard time calling a 150% river overbet.
Just looking for a bit of confirmation into my thoughts, or maybe some else I could be considering. I haven't broken it down in flopzilla yet, but I think as long as they are folding weak Kx to the overbet, we can probably get it through, and if not, we still have flushes in range that can play this way. Just dont think we can bet anything less than pot here with our bluffs as there will be alot of Kx that will call, so we have to get it through or just exploitatively give up if we dont think it will be successful often enough.
June 3, 2021 | 1:43 p.m.
So I have gone through looking at different solver options, and am thinking I will go with PIO 2.0 (I have basic version, so upgrade will cost $170, and comes with a trainer. )
I know there are other options(GTOplus), wizard, lucid; but they all come on a subscription basis(aside from GTO+). If I am to buy GTO+, it seems simpler to just get PIO 2.0, and take advantage of the upgrade, and not have to deal with importing hands between two softwares.
Just want to probe for any additional perspective, as I may be overlooking or unaware of different or better options.
June 1, 2021 | 2:16 p.m.
I used a smaller Isolation because the guy was short stacked, and from my experience it seems like people still aren't cold calling very often. Like I wouldn't iso this small in a live game because you'd just go 4-5way every time lol, but here, I think it still goes up heads up and 3-way pretty often.
But yeah, maybe my assumption that his sizing is big, and therefore he is a Rec is just wrong. Certainly could be the case. He did turn out to be kind of laggy though FWIW. But just because someone is laggy doesn't make them a fish, its just a higher variance style that may work, and I choose a might TAG approach.
thx for the feedback
May 29, 2021 | 7:25 p.m.
2.5x 4b OOP is considered big?
I think a better 3b size is going to be 9-10bb. 11.5 seems unnecessarily big and a sign that he isn’t super sharp. Most “regs” are going to use a smaller sizing I think because it’s more efficient, so when I see something different, I think it’s noteworthy. Could be wrong but I think I’m on track here.
Why are you choosing diamond combos only in this spot?
May 27, 2021 | 10:48 p.m.
50NL - 6-Handed
UTG limps with $12.88
Hero raise AcKh to $1.50 CO
Bttn new to table w $50.50 raises Button to 5.75 (first indicator he is weak)
Folds to Hero who makes it $14.50 (I can see a solid argument for flatting preflop here given the 3bettor is probably some type of rec given his preflop sizing; in a live game theres no way in hell I am 4betting here, but maybe since its internets poker 4betting is still better, do think its close, and like flatting in hindsight in all honesty)
Pot = $28
Stacks are $36 effectively
In all honestly not sure what I want to be doing here. Seems like my range can bet small and set up a turn shove with QQ+, and then like 8 bluffs(3/4 sizing)
My range is probably going to end up being much more narrow than normal here as well given who the 3bettor is(again, likely REC).
Can see merit in betting flop with no diamond/shoving turn since it unblocks hands he can call down with that are worst. Downside is not blocking Ad means we will likely get jammed on at a reasonable frequency, and I think we have to fold vs that.
A bit concerned that we are going to run into TT-QQ and occasional slowplayed AA here quite often, and dont see a ton of other worst hands folding vs a small bet.
So, guess what im wondering, is what is our strat at equil, and what is our strat post deviating, because I think we probably are meant to deviate here for sure.
May 27, 2021 | 10:14 p.m.
I think you just want to pick a size that targets all his Jx and FD’s, and not only his combo draws. It also gives you room to fold to a turn raise. Just bet 3/4 pot and be done with it :)
May 25, 2021 | 7:28 p.m.
Would you be finding this line with a hand as weak as A9s with no draw at all? Or A5s? Or just accepting your fate and showing them down?
I anticipate that if you think they are overfolding(which it seems you do) you’re just taking all your bluffs and going after it here and not trying to underbluff. Which makes sense IF they are actually overfolding.
May 24, 2021 | 1:50 p.m.
I'm a bit suspect of the call here. It's possible SB could jam some Ax once we check back twice, as it just looks like we have A high, so it may appear as a free roll. I'd probably just defend our Ax hands and throw something like this away...
On flop, do you think there is merit in just jamming 1.5x pot? Guessing you think alt lines are better like 1/3 flop/checking since thats what you discussed.
May 23, 2021 | 6:50 p.m.
See, I like this quite a bit more than overbetting turn.
I guess some of my confusion is coming from how I know I would be playing this spot in this specific scenario.
Because there is a fish in hand, and a reg in the SB that likely doesn't flat JJ(or TT?), and has alot of stuff that just interacts with the JT board, I would probably be betting too much with value hands, and good draws/draws that have give blockers, so I know that when I show up on turn here, I often don't have anything better than QJ or KJ.
I think too, which is probably a mistake on my part, is I tend to not open QJs or KJs from EP at 100bb stacks. It's kinda a thing I've done for a long time that has worked for me(low variance strat in soft soft games) which is probably something I should change given it's probably profitable in soft games. So I guess just being too aware that my own range is going to be very weak here and concern that they can be perceptive to know/suspicious.
If I had checked a hand like AA on flop, I probably would be finding a 3/4 bet for value like you said, because I would not want to overbet and have a Tx fold. It's well possible too, that a hand like AT even leads some on turn because of the button/thinknig Jx bets from us often, so he may view it as a good time to get value. So yeah, all in all, it does make their ranges pretty capped....
I think something I can likely do better too, is finding some checks with more strong hands, and find the delay overbets on later streets.
May 23, 2021 | 6:09 p.m.
That makes sense to me.
I've been thinking a lot about this lately, and how trying to see each spot through the lens of what PIO would do is very limiting to perspective, given the time constraints we have in live play and how much our mind can process in that allotted time.
That focusing more on their range and doing whatever line applies the most pressure(profitably) is likely the way to go.
Kinda like the idea, that using bigger bets on earlier streets just means more money won back later on, even if it flies in the face of equil strats that advocate for small bets(we aren't playing against super aggro bots in live).
It doesn't feel very natural at all to be betting a gutter 5-way like this however with two players behind that hadnt the chance to turn their ranges transparent.
I do like the idea of check raising a bit more still because it does give us extra info into the 2 players ranges on our left, and imagine both of their limp call ranges smack a 9896 board quite well. But guess they also do have alot of things like A8o, JT, k8s, Q8s, QT, KT, AT, A6, A7, K7s, 77, 67, 68, etc.
With the double 9 on board, it would eliminate some 9x combos and leave more of the other stuff, so I can see how that would make sense. We could lead turn like 40% and then overbet river like 1.5x and likely see a ton of folds.
May 23, 2021 | 5:58 p.m.
yeah i dont think Q9s basically ever shows up here.
The only hand I think that he can reasonably have for a bluff is QJo, but I think it might get raises because of how deep they are, wanting to get it 2-3 way with mega deep fish
Kind gross that KTo or K3s could possibly exist. But I do think that folding flop is perfectly fine when you compound all the factors together. Population just arent going to find bluffs here I think.
I do think that we can call however merely based on having a level of implied odds when deeper like this.
May 23, 2021 | 5:47 p.m.
thats an interesting thought. So like betting 1/4 pot or something? With a small turn bet, I think we would see a ton of calls from mult players, are you still going to overbet with say 2-3 people calling your bet, just going with assumption that they would raise 9x often enough?....
May 21, 2021 | 10:13 p.m.
I think the main issue with folding, is the stack depth we find ourselves with.
If we call the pot will be 570, with 1100 or so behind, so when we bink a K or a T, I think we have a reasonable amount of implied odds, and when we don't bink and face a decent size turn barrel without picking up outs, we can safely fold.
I think too, the back door flush capability is an important factor. Being able to turn additional equity helps us realize our equity as well. So I think a solid rule of thumb may be to continue our combos that have a back door capability, because we can realize our equity better in that instance when we hit a FD, whereas when we don't have the ability to pick up a FD, our equity realization diminishes drastically.
FWIW, I did fold in hand, but think it's a mistake due to stack depth. We are only risking an additional $125, and still have 1.1k back, and think it's reasonable that we can get stacks on a K or T turn, granted he knows little about us,(other than maybe I am a reg) and may well either go for value himself thinking he can get value from AA/AK, or convince himself into calling if he checks at some point, thinking we can have bluffs, overplaying some hands.
At a shallow stack depth, I think yeah, folding flop has much merit, but I do think with the back door we can probably still call a street, and then when we don't see equity on turn, fold to a bet/jam.
Thanks for the reply, this one was giving me concerns. I'm glad to know I'm not too far off for finding a fold here on the flop!
May 21, 2021 | 10:06 p.m.
Right, because there are future streets to factor+equity still in play, earlier streets can find more bluff opportunities; how to quantify this precisely, I do not know.
I suppose the truth I am landing on here, is I think population in general is just going to have a super hard time finding an adequate amount of bluffs here. Now this guy isn't "population" per se, but I do find that even most regs are going to find it hard to bluff here often, if ever. What complicates it is the fact that the earlier limpers were quite weak, and deep, so it's possible he shows up here with a % of K3s or KTo, but think they are discounted for sure being so far OOP.
Not sure it's crucial to have a precise understanding of the concept, but to recognize that even if he has a bluff, we are still in rough shape given the narrowness of his range and the frequent turn aggression we will face against a very narrow/strong range.
May 21, 2021 | 4:11 p.m.
Last night I shared a hand history, which to some, probably seems quite mundane. I flopped two pair and got check raised. But it really got me thinking.
Basically the situation was I raised KTs over 3 limpers. the flop came down KT3rain, I cbet 60%, the two weak players in the hand fold, and the HJ limper who is a Reg raises 2.5x on flop.
To me, given all the context of the situation, aka, how deep the players involved were, position, previous action etc. I find it plausible that all QJ gets raised pre because of how deep he was and how weak the limpers were, added to that, I bet 4-way for a large sizing on a board that is very good for my range. What I'm trying to say is, there is alot of compounding factors that lead his range further and further to be pocket 33's specifically, and alot of factors that would discourage him from finding many, if any, bluffs.
But lets say he still does manage to find some bluffs with QJo here. On the flop we need roughly 1:3 to continue. However, because his range is so narrow, we have to project that we are frequently going to be facing a lot of money going in/all the money going in on later streets. Because of this, I am finding myself confused, because there has to be an adjustment on our part.
For example. Say his range is composed of one QJo combo, and three 33 combos. If action ended on flop(and we disregard equity for a moment), we would have a breakeven call. But the amount of money we are putting in does not end on the flop, but compounds on later streets. So if his bluff ratio is 1:3, then we would have to fold because we must anticipate the future money that will be put into the pot. Say flop raise+turn bet size. So we may need closer to 36-42% equity depending on his turn sizing(flop raise+ 50%-66% turn sizing, or if shorter, a jam)
Even if we give him a 2:3 ratio, that lands us on needing around 40%.(again disregarding equity for simplicity sake)
I'm not entirely clear on what I'm getting at here, more just expressing some thoughts on a very strange scenario.
If you have anything to add, please do so.
May 20, 2021 | 3:08 p.m.
Live 2-5 - Texas Card House Dallas
2 action players limp ep like 2-3k eff
Perceived reg limp HJ 3k eff
Hero on bttn raUse KTdd to $35(meant 40 but misclicked/didn’t see 3rd limper)
All three call
Hero is 1.3k eff
Check to hero
I cbet 85(just going bigger here with two weak players; think the first one can call Any pair and gutter for this sizing, so think it’s good to size up.)
Both fish fold
HJ reg raises to $210
So yeah. Not an exciting spot, and not confident about planning future streets here.
Given how deep he is with the two fish, I’m thinking it’s possible he may raise all combos of QJ from the HJ even with two limps. Possible he does limp it however and overcall having position very deep with some pretty big spots. Not 100%, first day playing with him. He does have a 1k plaque, possible he plays pretty big. Also, IF he does have QJo in his limping range, does he raise it on flop when we are representing a strong range given our 60% cbet into a 4 way pot. Possible, since his raise will also look very strong. I don’t think we can entirely write off a the single combo of K3s, because he may justify a limp with it given his depth and how weak one of the players involved was. Same can be said for KTo. These games also don’t have a rake at the table so can see limping a bit more and seeing flops, especially with a deep punter, being possibly good.
So my interpretation is I prob gotta call flop and turn, and then evaluate river, but I can see myself folding river TBH, given at that point I think QJ would be ready to give up, and K3 may not even check raise 100% on flop, or even be played preflop. But all 3 combos of 33 will be there.
It just seems like such a sick spot because our RIO are really bad and his range is probably very narrow. It’s like yeah we are getting a good price on flop, but we have to factor in future streets where we will often be facing a bet. At this depth I think it’s an easy call given we have implied odds for hitting a K or a T, but without them, say at a shallower depth, it becomes quite dicey because we are not only facing a flop raise, but often a turn barrel as well, especially given how narrow his range is.
All in all, I guess just calling flop and turn is probably meritorious because otherwise we are saying the guy just never bluffs, and I can’t confidently say that.
May 20, 2021 | 12:42 p.m.
based on what evidence?
I imagine the SB will defend alot of Tx still and will have a hard time getting him off on the river as well when things brick....
Its just when I analyze this with flopzilla, it just seems like the turn bet wont be super effective given how much Tx still exists between two players, so when we overbet we need it to be pretty darn effective, which I dont see happening; I think they reach the proper defend freq pretty quickly. So then we have to rely on barreling thru the river, which may work for sure, but I am very skeptical and can see how it can go terribly wrong haha(we checked flop and go overbet overbet, and draws miss, can see people getting very sticky, especially when they are semi thinking players)
May 19, 2021 | 2:44 p.m.
Sticky reg straddles $10 UTG (have history on him from session where he 4x 45s UTG full ring, and called my 17bb squeeze while I am 110bb deep, called a gutter on flop 3 way and called off with incorrect odds on turn with a FD+gutter on a bad board. )
Another perceived Reg who is limping limps UTG 1, both cover
Hero on Bttn raise A9ss to $50 and has $550 remaining after raise...( I could prob make it $45 here, but not really looking to go much smaller)
Straddle and limper call
Flop JxTs6x rainbow
Flop = $157(no rake in these games)
check to Hero
I cbet $75
My personal thoughts are that I am using too big a size here given the SPR being what it is. a $50-60 bet can easily allow for me to get stacks in on river if I choose to do so. I am curious if I should be checking back some with this combo given its 3-way and a very connected board. I think it's okay with the single spade on board because it will give me ample bluffs on spade turns, and I can probably barrel off on a Q as well, given I tnink they never have AK or QQ.
Wondering if I should choose to bet flop with A9 combos that have the back door matching the top card, that way when we get opportunity to barrel, we face less top pair+fd situations. May not be that relevant however, and I would probably check back A8 backdoor, and A9 be close to bottom of range.
appreciate the feedback
May 18, 2021 | 11:42 p.m.
yeah its hard to say. it just looks like the 2 guys on my left and the Sb dont hold a piece since they checked twice, and now the PFR IP is betting turn, seems like he can be very capped to overpairs/air/3 combos of turned 66. So if we C/R like 2.5x on turn, could just jam river and suspect to only get called by 66.
Not entirely sure if we should raise bigger on turn and give up river, or just go small on turn(which makes sense to me here given the extra players who can certainly be trapping), and then hope he actually does call some overpairs that can be bluffed on river. I think too we can accurately represent a lot of boats/trips, and its live so mayve people think we can 75s or T7s for straights as well, as those are hands people will overdefend preflop here.