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Ryan

583 points

77 - I'm pretty skeptical the bet/check/bet 1/3 line has many bluffs in it - In my pool I think that would be pretty pure value with no bluffs so I would fold. Maybe people are bluffing that size on stars, but I don't see it happening in my game - think people would tend to bluff bigger and not choose a size that gets called a ton

June 14, 2022 | 2:42 p.m.

Tariq Haji that's super interesting. I mean if you have the data then by all means.

A large sample size can still have deviations, but yeah, hard to justify playing hands when you have clear evidence that they are losing you money.

Cutting it out seems reasonable, but also, it could be your postflop decisions that are affecting that specific combo. Like the way you are perceiving that specific hand class postflop, either playing too aggressively or passively in certain situations will of course have an impact.

Either way, respect you a lot as a player, so I don't take that adjustment lightly. Will encourage me to look in my own database for things like this that may be unintuitive.

May 10, 2022 | 12:22 p.m.

I saw you open fold A6o on bttn twice with no action ahead. If you're not opening this, then what does your bttn range look like? If you're dropping hands due to regs in blinds, seems like dropping stuff like Q8o before A6o would be a good idea for the blocker properties.

April 21, 2022 | 2:25 p.m.

30:16 - you pass on QJo in CO with a limp ahead. why.(misclick assumed)

on your PT4 - what setting allows you to see the hole cards? I use HM2 for that function, but didn't know PT4 offered that

AQs hand, first glance I thought that folding is a mistake, as AQ makes sense for population at least to have. But I guess it makes sense if IP is checking back some 98cc, 87cc, 76cc, 65cc, 54cc, and maybe some AJ on turn. because then we really need to find bluffs and even AQ betting full FQ is prob not enough for us to call.

Good to have you back

April 20, 2022 | 12:41 p.m.

I like this. One thing I have learned as I've aged, is that embracing our finite nature starts to put things in place and align perspective.

Jan. 21, 2022 | 11:43 a.m.

A3 hand - i dont love these spots in general of course. its tempting to think that maybe he is jamming with a strong hand to try and "look bluffy" when all the draws miss. But at the same time, given how narrow his value range is, I think that we can just call our best bluff catchers(this being one of them). His value range is pretty narrow, and as you know on bovada, there is an X factor that he can show up with something we truly do not expect. Plus all the natural missed draws like hearts. He is also on the button and could def overcall a bit wider there. so I guess I'd call. interested to hear your thoughts on it after giving it more thought.

something I really like about your approach is you weigh a lot into the bet size villain is using in defining his range.

the AA hand, I mean his value range is again so narrow, and we are getting a pretty great price. I think there's too great a chance a hand like AK or KQ play like this, or that he is doing something weird facing a turn 1/4 turn barrel and doing something odd. I mean I would prob be stacking off here, but I can see it if you have a ton of history and know this is just always the nuts. I def find some folds like this where population is just way out of wack. this one is just hard for me to see since we dont need great odds+i can see AK playing like this/our hand might look weak given the two small bets.(even if standard) but hey, im open to the idea

Jan. 4, 2022 | 12:12 p.m.

JJ is an odd one - I dont think he "should" be jamming KQ on river, as what is calling thats worst? seems like KQ might be too thin on that runout. That being said, if it is being 3 barrelled in practice then makes JJ much better call.

Dec. 23, 2021 | 8:59 p.m.

Yeah I think AA is a defend on turn. Theres quite alot of stuff he can bet turn with we are ahead of - JTs, T9s, AK, maybe AT. I think we gotta play til river and make decision there.

Edit: I mean of course he had it this time, but if you think about his value range, its like 1 combo KK, 3 combo QQ, 2 combo KQs, maybe 2 combos KQo, so 8ish value combos? we realistically need him to have less than 4 or so worst hands/bluffs on turn. Maybe AK doesnt choose this sizing, but we really cant know this, as AK might appear stronger to him after we bet small flop and check turn. And then if he is sitting there with T9s, JTs, ATs, AJs(or AJo right), I think he will feel compelled to bet at least once to make us fold a hand like AQo, QJs, QTs, TT, 99, JJ etc. I also see a ton of unexpected stuff in this pool as well, so I just don't think we can make this fold, even if he happened to have it this time.

If he can have full KQo combos, it does become closer, but even vs two pair we have reasonable equity, and there are still quite a few bluffs for him to choose from. Prob not worth a ton of EV either way, but I see strong reasons to call turn and reevaluate river.

Dec. 14, 2021 | 4:23 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Exploretation Episode 1

Peter Clarke dont want it to be confused. I think the characters and imagery is great; I just think the introductions and robot voices were distracting and hard to follow. I think if less time was spent on explaining them and going into detail on that, then it would come together very well. Think you're in the right space for this, just needs a bit of refinement.

Dec. 11, 2021 | 10:51 p.m.

the QJo at around 40 minutes bttn vs 2 limps - do you typically use a 6x iso in these spots? Just wondering if this is a thing you've found to be effective. Makes sense to get it HU more often. I typically go 5x here and find it still gets it HU quite often, but maybe going bigger could be better. since you're playing at a higher stake than me as well, imagine i will see even less 3b's than you would so it should be even more effective.

Dec. 8, 2021 | 8:13 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Exploretation Episode 1

I like the use of characters and avatars, but in this video it was really distracting and made the video way longer than it needed to be in reality for just going into one spot. But good direction IMO, think the use of imagery is powerful for understanding concepts. good job being creative, i like it.

Dec. 7, 2021 | 4:39 p.m.

RunItTw1ce that's probably true. Idk about in practice. Is IP really ever checking down a worst hand here? I guess we can chop with AQ ourselves so the EV will be >0

Dec. 7, 2021 | 3:15 p.m.

@36 w AQcc - I think you have 0ev for a check TBH. Whether or not you turn it into a bluff, IDK. It's prob the bottom of my range personally in that config so I would like to see it I think.

42.56 - QJdd; how do you view SB range for the turn float? prob not a call I would make on turn so its interesting to see. I suppose you are just calling against stuff like Kx+gutters, some FD's, with intention of bluffing river? kinda a weird spot for me, but maybe it makes sense since ranges are a bit wider bvb. just trying to wrap my head around it

Dec. 6, 2021 | 3:14 p.m.

Just wanted to say, i resubbed after being gone for a long time specifically for your content! :)

Also, if you want something for preset sizes, jurojin is a free and easy to use option.

Dec. 5, 2021 | 4:38 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Ryan Spicer Poker

Also, here is the second release. Played a 2-5 game this go around. The 1-3 games seemed pretty dead, and the 2-5 game had some action players in it. Not super comfortable playing 2-5 atm with my current roll, but will play it when the conditions are right. Have option to buy in for 1k, but playing 100bb buy in to mitigate risk exposure for now. Ran up a nice stack and when the action players left the game, I dropped stakes and played 1-3. Which worked out nice, since during the time I played 2-5, the 1-3 games had a chance to loosen up and find some action players in them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcB_iN8hmuI

Aug. 12, 2021 | 5:16 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Ryan Spicer Poker

You make good point; however against this specific player, who I have played with for like 5 years, I think he is so pessimistic and nitty, theres a good chance he doesnt even bet top pair on river, and might just check back and be thrilled to win a pot.

Not 100% on that above statement, but I do think its possible. Also do not think he would call a check raise at 100% freq. But yeah, against most people I think you are right. Even vs this guy you might be right, but I think my line of thinking is accurate based on what ive seen from the guy over the years. He has a more "win the pot" mentality, rather than a "get value from my hands" mentality.

Edit:however, it is possible that we can always choose a small C/R size, like 2.5x or min or something too if we want to go for that route and think he overfolds. I do think its pretty close between two options.

Aug. 12, 2021 | 3:58 p.m.

Post | Ryan posted in Chatter: Ryan Spicer Poker

Hey guys, I will update this another day when the time is right. Going to hop into some games now and get my hours for the day going. I started a Vlog, and want to have a consistent blog go with it. So for now, here you go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muDgf49kyGM

Real quick, I recently got back into the online scene to compliment my live game. I just like having the ability to play from home some days, and it's also helping me sharpen my skills back up.

I'm grinding up the money I put on Bovada at 50NL, and plan to start playing 100NL again soon, and working towards 200NL games.
As for live, I play a mix of 1-3 and 2-5, but am focusing more on 1-3 ATM due to short term variance and honestly a bit of a lack of focus over the last year or so while searching for what direction I was going to move in going forward.

Look forward to sharing and touching base soon,

Peace
Ryan

Aug. 5, 2021 | 8:54 p.m.

you definitely edited that :P lol

guess I missed that one

July 21, 2021 | 2:43 p.m.

you should probably mention your stack size :)

but since i know your stack size was around 750, i think you can flop raise like 300-330, and will get a ton of respect. if called, I think you can go ahead and jam turn vs the MP player and try to get stuff to fold there. I dont think we get to check fold with the SPR on turn being low, so probably good to realize as much fold equity as possible, and we probably have some since our line looks so strong.

the interesting thing is if we raise flop to 300ish and the shorter player goes all in, AND the MP player calls. then turn is weird, because we are going to see a showdown regardless. guess checking is the cheapest way to do that so we do that and hope for a cheap showdown/improve

July 19, 2021 | 4:40 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on $100 Zoom: Same Ol Donks

2:33 - KsTh on 8s5s7h; you mention barreling on things like 2c/2d. Will you be barreling a hand like this basically 100% of time? this is something I like never do, but think it may be a spot i might be missing bluff opportunities with when having low equity hands like this. This board is a bit special as its very connected and alot of pair+draws are present, but on a slightly more dry board, do you find yourself firing alot of 2 barrels effectively(and dare i say), overdoing it as an exploit?

17:45 - KJo:
I like the fold, he can still have some KTo as well, or maybe J9, so dont think its that that narrow, and also prob underbluffed. Imagine you have some AhJx in range here due to the 1/3 cbet and having BDNFD, so thats already a better Jx to defend. or KhJx, although some of the KJ combos with a heart in them maybe check raised more often. Im cool folding this, and if I want to defend a Jx hand, prob want to have a heart in hand to block their value. KhJx is a good candidate

19:00 - JTo:
what do you think about check raising turn? We prob are checking most of our range on that turn, including ATo, T9s, KQ, maybe T9o given the min raise, and he probably cbets a good portion of that hand on flop, so his range is semi capped at KJ, which we block. Maybe better to reserve this for when we have a club in hand, as to not overdo it, but seems very viable. Thoughts?

June 20, 2021 | 11:37 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Flop Raises in 3-Bet Pots

i guess my reason would be that while we give him a free river when he has a draw, that that isn't outweighed by the sheer amount of stronger hands in his range. Like say if we could know his range, and it broke down to something like 40 Jx combos and 30 bluffs, theres literally more hands that beat us than that we beat, additionally, those bluffs will often have significant equity, so why would we be wanting to jam into a range that has more hands that beat us than hands that we are ahead of. thats what i am not understanding i suppose.

the only thing I can think of, is that we dont get to get value from say clubs or an OESD, or deny equity from something like KQ. I guess if we are never planning to fold the river, then I can see why jamming turn would just be better, as the money is going in regardless, and by not jamming we just miss value from the portion of his range that is drawing.

I suppose im just very used to extremely passive games at this point where i would still consider folding the river an option, as the people in my games(live 1-3/2-5) are almost never firing a third bullet as a bluff, but may have 2 barrels in them. I guess in that case it might make sense to call if we are confident we can fold to a 3rd barrel at near perfection.(and not get stacked when they have top pair+; which may make it worth letting them realize their equity, still might be wrong here tho)

June 17, 2021 | 8:43 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Flop Raises in 3-Bet Pots

3:18 - Why jam rather than just call? it leaves an awkward stack size on river, but do you really think his range is wide enough here to merit a jam>call? (clearly you do since you did it). Could you elaborate a bit?

Obv if he has K2 in range thats one thing, but prob not standard right, and still has fair amount of Jx like AJo, KJs, QJs, JTs, etc. Just hard for me to see why a jam would be preferred to a call if he has more Jx+ in range than other stuff. If he has like 30+ value combos, does he really have 30+ draws/worst hands? Id think not(before seeing the K2s lol). Curious if you can try to express your view on this spot to help me understand what leads you to this play, as I think id generally be calling the turn

EDIT: i do see that you mentioned that he can have stuff like KQ KT QT etc, but still, that would be like 24 combos, and some of that might get filtered out if he folds pre flop or doesnt take the bet/bet line. So still hard for me to justify a jam here unless I thought the guy could be really wide preflop and be aggressive with those hands postflop. I guess there are some suited Ax, but even then, theres not that many combos, and as he defends wider with stuff like KJo, then that obv cuts alot into us being able to get value from him. interesting spot though regardless and hope you can offer some clarification

Thanks

June 17, 2021 | 2:08 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on $200 Zoom: 40 Player Pool

PSA: there's a really cool piece of software out called Jurojin; its completely free and allows you to preset bet sizes preflop, use percentages of pot postflop, as well as set hotkeys if you wish. Worth checking out and using playing on Bovada/Bodog

June 7, 2021 | 6:33 p.m.

something someone pointed out in a discord forum im a part of, is that AxQs is probably a better candidate for this line, as this will increase the amount of Asx in the first players turn range and give him way way more hands to fold to the river bet with. It is interesting is they could somehow have a hand like As8x that could hero because we are repping a nut flush, or somewhere in that vicinity, but most will still prob just click fold. I do think that its fine or even good to give up against an unknown rec alot because they might just find way lighter calls than we are expecting which would torch our bet. But think not blocking the As definitely makes it more attractive and probably good

June 4, 2021 | 2:49 p.m.

Post | Ryan posted in NLHE: Finding Overbet in Mult-Way Spot
50NL Bovada

Hero raise AsQx UTG 3x 100bb
New guy with 100BB who has played 6/9 hands so far calls on my left

Tighter player who seems loose passive calls Bttn w 80bb stack(guessing alot of broadways, PP's, suited connectors/gappers, maybe some suited Kx.

Flop 8s6s3s
I start with a check here, and probably okay doing this with range, planning to do some check raising very polar, and facing check backs, can do alot of turn betting/overbets with various parts of range.

Turn Kc
I consider a overbet, but decide on a 70% lead, they both call

River is a blank 2x
I decided to give up here given I got called in two spots, and was concerned that the loose guy on my left can be uncapped given he is likely a fun player, but in hindsight, even if this is the case, I think they both just have alot of weak Kx in range, so even if they call with some flat called AK, and have some slowplayed sets/flushes, theres still a ton of Kx like KTo, KJo, KQ, that will have a hard time calling a 150% river overbet.

Just looking for a bit of confirmation into my thoughts, or maybe some else I could be considering. I haven't broken it down in flopzilla yet, but I think as long as they are folding weak Kx to the overbet, we can probably get it through, and if not, we still have flushes in range that can play this way. Just dont think we can bet anything less than pot here with our bluffs as there will be alot of Kx that will call, so we have to get it through or just exploitatively give up if we dont think it will be successful often enough.

June 3, 2021 | 1:43 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on Choosing a GTO Trainer

thanks for the feedback, that does sound pretty great!

June 3, 2021 | 1:18 p.m.

Post | Ryan posted in NLHE: Choosing a GTO Trainer

Hey y'all

So I have gone through looking at different solver options, and am thinking I will go with PIO 2.0 (I have basic version, so upgrade will cost $170, and comes with a trainer. )

I know there are other options(GTOplus), wizard, lucid; but they all come on a subscription basis(aside from GTO+). If I am to buy GTO+, it seems simpler to just get PIO 2.0, and take advantage of the upgrade, and not have to deal with importing hands between two softwares.

Just want to probe for any additional perspective, as I may be overlooking or unaware of different or better options.

Thanks
Ryan

June 1, 2021 | 2:16 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on 4B Pot

I used a smaller Isolation because the guy was short stacked, and from my experience it seems like people still aren't cold calling very often. Like I wouldn't iso this small in a live game because you'd just go 4-5way every time lol, but here, I think it still goes up heads up and 3-way pretty often.

But yeah, maybe my assumption that his sizing is big, and therefore he is a Rec is just wrong. Certainly could be the case. He did turn out to be kind of laggy though FWIW. But just because someone is laggy doesn't make them a fish, its just a higher variance style that may work, and I choose a might TAG approach.

thx for the feedback

May 29, 2021 | 7:25 p.m.

Comment | Ryan commented on 4B Pot

2.5x 4b OOP is considered big?

I think a better 3b size is going to be 9-10bb. 11.5 seems unnecessarily big and a sign that he isn’t super sharp. Most “regs” are going to use a smaller sizing I think because it’s more efficient, so when I see something different, I think it’s noteworthy. Could be wrong but I think I’m on track here.

Why are you choosing diamond combos only in this spot?

May 27, 2021 | 10:48 p.m.

Post | Ryan posted in NLHE: 4B Pot

50NL - 6-Handed

UTG limps with $12.88

Hero raise AcKh to $1.50 CO
Bttn new to table w $50.50 raises Button to 5.75 (first indicator he is weak)

Folds to Hero who makes it $14.50 (I can see a solid argument for flatting preflop here given the 3bettor is probably some type of rec given his preflop sizing; in a live game theres no way in hell I am 4betting here, but maybe since its internets poker 4betting is still better, do think its close, and like flatting in hindsight in all honesty)

Bttn calls

Flop Td6s6d
Pot = $28

Stacks are $36 effectively

In all honestly not sure what I want to be doing here. Seems like my range can bet small and set up a turn shove with QQ+, and then like 8 bluffs(3/4 sizing)

My range is probably going to end up being much more narrow than normal here as well given who the 3bettor is(again, likely REC).

Can see merit in betting flop with no diamond/shoving turn since it unblocks hands he can call down with that are worst. Downside is not blocking Ad means we will likely get jammed on at a reasonable frequency, and I think we have to fold vs that.

A bit concerned that we are going to run into TT-QQ and occasional slowplayed AA here quite often, and dont see a ton of other worst hands folding vs a small bet.

So, guess what im wondering, is what is our strat at equil, and what is our strat post deviating, because I think we probably are meant to deviate here for sure.

Ryan

May 27, 2021 | 10:14 p.m.

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