The -50bb/100 is what I was looking for.
I think it’s quite normal to have a 35-40bb/100 winrate(50-70$ hrly, only see 30 hands an hour at best) in most live games all positions combined. That’s combining Bttn thru utg. So I imagine bb vs sb you would be looking at something like 70bb/100 as a guess
Sb we need to overcome a -40bb/100
I would guess we can just barely meet that, considering we are oop 100% of time.
So I guess all in all, my best guess is that playing is probably work some ev, but it’s really insignificant.
The only thing I would add to this, is I have noticed that sometimes people will opt to fold the button w marginal stuff rather than limp or fold if they know the blinds chop. This might take additional ev away, as I want the Bttn putting in money with his 43o or whatever other trash they put on...
I’ll prob just chop at games below 2-5, and opt to play at 2-5+
Speeding up the game however does seem relevant, Especially since you prob see a Bb vs sb sitch once per day on average, so it will take a long time to realize that /100 average...
But think I’ll still play out of hometown at 2-5+(partly to avoid confusion as different rooms have diff rules), and chop below 2-5. While in home room I guess I don’t mind chopping just to keep the peace as I don’t think it’s worth much. If In room that takes preflop, then def chop
April 19, 2021 | 5:48 p.m.
on the last hand w 42s, do you think there is a significant different between overbetting river rather than turn?
I often reserve most overbetting for the river just as a simplification. My best guess is that alot of strategies will work here. even going small over bet turn and riv. potting turn and overbetting 1.4x on riv, etc.
April 19, 2021 | 12:42 p.m.
well I am referring to live 2-5. I think I have a skill edge on 99% of the field.
You think that even in a high stakes environment, it is neutral ev?
I wouldn't consider live 2-5 high stakes, but the rake is $7 all things considered once the pot reaches $45. Typical raise size is 15-25, so you pretty much immediately hit that.
The thing in live, is that you cannot choose to chop when you are in the SB and play when in BB(obv). So you have to choose one way or the other.
There is upside to being able to play as the BB vs the SB, and suspect it to be a high ev spot in theory, as like I said, most players are just weak. However, not sure it compensates for playing the SB, when you have option to just pull money back and move on to next hand
April 19, 2021 | 11:48 a.m.
Hey guys, question for yall
I have some cognitive dissonance around this and am seeking some clarification...
The issue is around the chopping option present in live games.
I know there is a framework around how many BB you can expect to lose from the blinds based on the situation, however, I am unclear of what that framework looks like here.
For example, if I am on the SB and have the option to chop, what is the BB threshold I need to overcome, speaking from the SB position?
Similarly, if I am on the BB, what is the BB loss I need to overcome?
I'm pretty sure playing as the BB vs SB is pretty much always going to be more profitable that a chop, especially with alot of weak players in the pool.
However, I'm curious what the SB threshold is, and what it looks like, so I can have an idea of what is happening here.
My guess is that you likely lose some money SB vs BB, but gain a substantial amount in the BB vs SB scenario. Just don't know how to quantify it. I may be wrong, and maybe with a weak BB, you are still making money in the SB.
I'm curious because I want to know how close the decision really is. I find it tempting to chop sometimes and just move on to the next hand, paying no rake, and happily placing the button in front of me. I do however, don't want to be giving away money by not taking advantage of a situation that may be pretty profitable. From my experience, it doesn't feel like the situation has been that lucrative, as it doesn't come up super often, but I would like to have some clarity on it to make a more informed decision about how I want to handle it moving forward.
April 19, 2021 | 1:13 a.m.
What helps me, is to reframe my mind and remind myself that the process is all that matters. I try to really focus on making +ev plays, and as long as I meet that threshold, I try to not be too hard on myself or worry about the results.
Remember, poker is not about winning, it's about making the highest Ev plays in each situation, and I think keeping an eye on that controllable goal helps keep things in perspective.
That reminds me as well, I think it's important to consciously keep controllable factors at the forefront of your mind. I find that when I start thinking about things outside of my control, is when I start to get anxious and cut off any enjoyment I may find from playing the game.
So when I go into a session, I have an idea of the hours I want to play, for example, which is something within my control. I have an idea of how frequent I want to take disciplined breaks. A rough idea of my equity in situations, and when to pile money in and when to get out. As long as I am facing towards these controllable aims, I find I have more peace and walk better towards my goals. When I lose sight of these things, is when I make trouble for myself.
I hope that helps in the slightest, and remember, the process is all that matters.
April 16, 2021 | 7:15 p.m.
I hear what you're saying, I guess my main thing is I have observed villain to use bigger sizings, so on a card that hits his turn bluffing range, and a sizing that indicates he wants a hero call from a hand like I have, I think it will be drastically underbluffed, and therefore I find a fold.
April 15, 2021 | 3:50 p.m.
so 40%+ of the time still giving up, and 55% time going to find a river barrel/improve. Yeah not sure that is too great, granted the small turn raise doesn't really generate much if any FE, and we will only get to bluff just more like 50% of the time on river, and it may not even be a successful bluff on top of that. So, I think I lean towards a turn call rather than a raise unless I just thought I could punish a capped range and they folded majority of times to a river jam
April 15, 2021 | 3:49 p.m.
So bit of history here. Villain in this hand is someone I perceive may be a semi thinking reg, but seems to be wayy too loose, and does seem to take way too many opportunities to bluff postflop/turn stuff into bluff. Have seen him 3b squeeze from co things like 85s before in a spot I think was terrible, and also have seen him use pot size as bluff before, turning like 3rd pair into bluff, in maybe an okay spot mult way, but with no blockers etc. my impression is he may very well be overdoing things in a lot of spots so guessing he can overbluff quite a bit....
Anyways, this villain raises CO over a limper to 25
Hero has AsKd on bttn playing 500 eff, we 3b to 75
Folds to co who calls...based on what I’ve seen from him, I think he is going to defend way way too wide here, think possible even things like KQo and AJo.
Flop comes Jh7c4c
I decide to check behind thinking with no club, and not the driest bord, I prob can have some check backs, and plus vs this villain I think it’s possible I can bluff catch a bit with A high, possibly two streets on specific run outs. Also don’t want to get check raised off our hand if this is something he might do...
He bets 50 into 150, we call, with intention of calling basically any blank river, unless he like overbets.
He bets 100 into 250
Basically the 8 interacts well with his turn leading range, and his sizing makes me believe he wants a call. When he has bluffed in past, it seems like he chose big sizings. Has the river been an 7 or below and didn’t complete a FD, I’d prob call any bet below 250.
Just think vs this kind of player, he is going to follow thru on river a lot, so if I’m folding a blank river, I may as well be folding turn, but think he also can have things like KQo in range on turn(maybe even river), so think we gotta call on some. Think it’s a bit too far out to start calling Ah on just any river without a very precise understanding of what he is doing. I know pio prob would fold on a 2o, but pio also probably has some river give ups where this guy might literally take any hand without showdown and bet twice.
That’s also a merit for checking back too in my mind, is we can induce bluffs. I’d also check back more with things like KJ and QJ, as they can get a ton of value from his air region.
April 8, 2021 | 2:48 a.m.
its true non Kx have more outs, but I think they mostly get folded preflop. Like A9s and below are getting folded pre, maybe ATs as well. Well, maybe not ATs pre because he probably understands I'm a thinking player. But still, alot of folded combos in general. Might be good exercise just to see what ratio of hands I need him to fold here and see if the threshold is reached in this situation based on what I think his response will be
I wasn't necessarily questioning this spot for its postflop playability, I was more thinking that we have the inside info of an extra K being out of deck on top of one being exposed and gone, so maybe that blocks his premium holdings enough to make it a 3b, since we know KK is blocked incredibly hard. That's really the extent of my thinking lol.
April 8, 2021 | 1:55 a.m.
Preflop seems good.
First glance I was thinking to call flop, but in reality I think flop raise is good because you can probably get 9x and worst to fold, and the guy jamming 1/5.5th pot can probably have a lot of things like 6x, JT, draws, 5x etc, so you probably do improve your equity with a raise, and if someone did have a straight or set or two pair, it’s not like you are folding with this spr anyways.
April 7, 2021 | 1:08 p.m.
Cool, good response!
Something I realize too given your response, is live abc regs likely aren’t opening things like K8s from the HJ. It’s kinda irrelevant, but it doesn’t necessarily make Ax better, other than we know that KK and AA are now blocked, but so are all the Axs combos that probably fold to a 3b. Just less pure folds from Kxs, as I don’t suspect they are being opened. Maybe not a great spot to be taken advantage of
April 7, 2021 | 12:59 p.m.
Who I perceive to be an ABC reg 4x HJ
Co folds and reveals K5o
Folds to hero on Bb w K7s, 850 eff
Basically I’m wondering with the additional info, is it wise to start taking basically any Kxs and 3 balling it, essentially blocking his KK and AK really hard. I’d def do it with any Axs, and maybe it’s good with AJo/ATo given the 4x sizing.
I don’t think he will read too much into it for me getting out of line, but will obviously understand combonotorics I think postflop, just seems Kx and us having a Kx is pretty nice for hard blockers. However, a lot of players are going to flat AK pre to a reraise anyway, so we aren’t blocking 4b range as hard as we would be had us an A in hand.
April 6, 2021 | 5:55 p.m.
AQo on the 3388 turn facing lead:
Just wanted to point out that I think your logic is inconsistent here. On turn you justified a raise saying you can set up a pot size shove. Then on the K say that you will bluff this card and check back on blanks because it wins vs xxcc combos.
If you’re going to give up on blank rivers, seems like we would be better served flatting turn and bluffing good rivers(mainly Kx). Our hand as you said has some showdown vs bluffs, and equity/bluff equity vs small pairs. So the turn raise doesn’t really make sense to me unless we are planning to follow thru a lot on rivers to get better hands to fold
April 6, 2021 | 2:21 p.m.
I’d bet more 2:3 or 3/4 on turn. 70% seems good.
Easy shove on river for less than pot or around pot
April 6, 2021 | 11:43 a.m.
whats the cost on it and what functions does it have?
Something a friend pointed out that may be accurate too, is that in live since people cold call more often that online, that he would squeeze primarily online and flat in live. Kinda strange because the live players will likely have wider ranges, but since they call more often pre, you will also be in spots post flop more often 3-way OOP, when you can flat and your sets have huge implied odds/you can play postflop still.
April 3, 2021 | 12:08 p.m.
So quick history so you can understand the insanity. Villain in this hand who is ripping it, I have seen him back raise rip A3o pre for $200 when the literal biggest nit in the room 3b him. Played with guy for a couple years and can just do all sorts of crazy stuff..
unknown guy, but seen him limping stuff like 96s, and making stabs postflop.
A fishy Tag player makes it $20 UTG
Villain 1 in the CO calls the $20 playing a $340 stacks
We pick up AA on the button and make it $85
The SB acted out of turn and had threw in $20, and then pulled it back and threw out the $85, he is just covering me for $800eff
The UTG player folds
The CO/Villain one jams for $340
Action on hero
So, basically we have decision to flat call to rope the SB in to a call. I think this is the highest EV line, and expect he can re overcall at least TT-QQ, AK, AQ type stuff, maybe wider.
The only issue I see presented is by letting a 3rd player in, our equity definitely is lower in a 3way situation. However, even with a player all in, the guy doesn't know me and you see really crazy stuff in live even with a player all in, so think if he flops a pair/overpair, he will call my half pot shove on basically any flop.
If he doesnt call the shove, we do get the extra $240 cold call from him the times he comes along, where if we jam maybe he hero folds JJ/QQ, which sucks pretty bad.
Think it's obviously higher EV to flat here, just higher variance. If there was one extra player in hand then I think we just have a clear jam, barring some outlandish read that someone behind will shove for us.
since this wont affect the answers, I did flat and the SB did call...
Flop came down KJxss
I jammed $450 into 1K+, SB folds and the CO that went all in had J3s! haha
April 3, 2021 | 2:24 a.m.
what solver is this that gives you the preflop solution?
Also, did you/can you customize if for the fishes cold call range, because I imagine that will play a significant role is whether or not we squeeze preflop. Like in live theres alot of situations where fish are cold calling T9o, K9o, etc etc, so imagine that will affect our decision quite a bit as well.
April 3, 2021 | 2:12 a.m.
Something to add to the T8 hand, you mentioned villain defending some AQ in that scenario HJ vs BB. If I recall the flop was like K8x. I don’t see most players defending AQ there. I know I wouldn’t be, just thinking players don’t check raise enough(certainly not in my games). Do you actually think villain has significant AQ there? I mean maybe AhQx, but that’s really it. Not even sure we should defend that hand against an anonymous pool tbh.
April 2, 2021 | 5:21 p.m.
Enjoyed this. Played many years on Bovada before transitioning fully to live. Makes me want to deposit some on here!
On the 99 hand with you in the SB. You mentioned not having a flatting range in the SB there. I think with the fun player overcalling, you actually can flat 22-88 and potentially 99 given its a LJ open, unless the BB is just squeezing all day. I think stuff like QTs also makes sense to have in there, or T9s. Yeah you're range is faceup vs the LJ player, but I think the CO fun player is likely unaware of what your range looks like, and you probably have implied odds against him, plus the LJ can't man handle you as much with the 3rd player in the hand.
I kind of prefer flatting 99 here additionally over squeezing because the LJ will still have a relatively tight range, and we will get 4b times off our hand, and I suspect to get a reasonable amount of call calls, which will leave us mult way OOP quite often with 99, and often that range will be mostly pairs where we can't really get much value from post flop. I had a situation come up like this recently in a 2-5 game where I just opted to flat the 99, but it was something I took note of and considered that squeezing might still be better
What do you think about this?
April 2, 2021 | 3:11 p.m.
Just going to post this since I took the time to recreate it. This is the villains estimate jamming range, and I think quite accurate, as I have played alot with him.
Something you said though is true however, that with the player going all in, it will be harder to get paid from a single pair hand, so we will have to "cooler" him when he binks a lower straight or two pair. (yes I think this guy will still pay off with two pair; but two pair would block our J out still, and still might not make that much)
Guess I am being overly zealous about how much the button will pay me off when I get there. I've played with the guy for years, and he's the type who comes in 5 days a week to lose a few hundred while his brokerage prints him money lol. Think I was being a bit blind to how much he will really pay off because of him being a losing player.
April 2, 2021 | 1:42 p.m.
Why is this the case?
When I plugged into flopzilla multi-way mode, I was able to come up with 24% equity with my specific holding; so if the action ended on turn, I would have a breakeven call granted the price I’m given.(unless there’s something I’m missing)
(Possible you’re giving him too tight a jamming range; this guy will jam any FD, any oesd, any Qx likely most Tx etc; don’t think he’s jamming a gutter, but possible, maybe AK specifically himself, which he can have lol)
But since action doesn’t end on turn, I’ll likely not realize the full equity of my hand.
The thing that’s really confusing is that only half of my outs carry implied odds. So I think whatever we estimate we need to make back based on the difference, we probably need to make almost double since not all our outs carry implied odds. (I’m not sure how great our implied odds are in the first place, because I don’t think the Bttn is taking the jam to the face with things like K9 no clubs, so most his oesd improve to weak pair when we make nut)
April 2, 2021 | 12:53 p.m.
Hero on BB w AcKs and raise to $28(some pretty sticky guys in game, will make it 25+ here, just made it $28 because they already pulled my $3 in and it doesn't make a huge difference, and also dont mind making it tad bigger with AK trying to get it heads up/folded thru.
get a short stack caller who can be very wide
Bttn calls as well and is probably pretty wide, he is like $550 Eff
Pot = $84
Short stack jams for $72
Bttn deliberates quite a bit and makes the call, he has another $500ish back. between $450-550
Action on Hero...
Basically I need around 1:3.1 here, which I don't exactly have given the Bttn will certainly have some turn bets and I will underrealize my equity.
However, I think if we say 2 of my A outs are clean, and none of my K outs are clean, and 3 of my J outs are clean, we effectively are looking at around 20-24%, but say we only realize 70% of that equity. 14%-17%; 1:5.5 - 1:3.1 = 2.4. So we need to make around $173 back to find a break even point. I suspect we don't get bluffed off the best hand when we hit an A or K, and can likely make at least a 2/3 bet back on a J(not always). However, this is accounting for times when we only have a clean A 2/3 times, no clean K, and 3 clean Jx. There will certainly be scenarios where the guy jamming will have something like Q9 or Tx, or 98s, and the guy calling will have something like KJ, J9, or a FD. So our hand can actually have showdown value however small..
I folded in the hand, and afterwards I realized I think I made a mistake.. If the Bttn only had like $200 behind or something, I can get behind a fold, but I think as he gets deeper, we can actually make a call here. The only thing however, is there is also the scenario where the player jamming will have a made hand, and the bttn caller will be on a draw, in which case we dont make money, but I guess our equity will realize fully and we will see a river, so that is okay.
I'm also not sure how the math works out since we basically get to showdown our hand/make small value bet on an A/K, or fold if we face heat, but may make a decent sized bet on a J, if he has something. So half our outs carry implied odds, while half of them mostly are looking to see a showdown. So wonder if there is some sort of weighting affect that needs to be accounted for. I think it doesn't quite matter, as if we have 16% equity, we have 16% equity and really just need to make up the difference for needing 24% equity.
I think my process is making more sense now and I made an incorrect fold. Is there a simple way of looking at this and I'm making it way to complicated?
April 2, 2021 | 2:27 a.m.
okay, ive been convinced that calling riv is probably correct. I gave villain 90% of 9x combos+22, and then put QJ, QT, JT, T7s, J7s, 76s, 75s, 65s at a 25% bluff freq, and 65o/76o at a 10% freq, and it that would make it just barely a call. But realistically he probably doesnt have 90% of 9x and might have some random X factor bluffs
April 1, 2021 | 1:31 p.m.
I will not cbet 99 on QTT 3 way.
But doesn’t matter really. Basically just matters if he is betting 1/6 pot w a bluff ever to make AK worth calling. It does feel like he is just going to have something most of the time, but only need like 12% of time to be good so it seems reasonable to call it. Still might be a fold though....
EDIT: I did a quick crunch in flopzilla, and I kinda do feel like this is a call, even when we lose majority of time. I know i hear coaches sometimes mention in these small bet spots recreationals just have some unexpected stuff and see them make calls with insane odds. I think it makes sense just generally, where if you give him even 10% of all the different bluffs he can have and 100% of all the value(assuming he also just flats Tx on the flop, which certainly gets raised some), it is around a breakeven call. So when you take out some of the value range like Tx, and if he ever is just trying to buy the pot cheap at a higher freq then 10%, then it quickly becomes okay to call. Its a really hard spot to know tho, because I cant even remember the last time something like this happened. It's like a twice a year situation and its also worth very little, so it doesnt stick in my mind. BUT yes, i think more often then not they have it, but our odds are so good I think we can flick in a call. But Im annoyingly aware it might be losing and maybe I should fold, I just dont know
As for barreling turn, i think id like to choose AJ/KJ combos before AK, as AK has slightly more SD value and prob will check down vs AJ type stuff. Betting I think is +ev, but it might be higher as a check. AJ also gets AK to fold, which villain can certainly have.
On flop, I am very used to just cbetting here, but I think 3 way it does make sense to do some checking. Getting raised on flop is pretty bad for us, and we can still check behind some stuff like QJs, KQ. There’s still value in checking behind some hands like this to bluff catch with later on. In super passive games I would just always bet QK and just use a small turn follow up and check back rivers a lot.
So AK can still bluff on turn to target the weak parts of their range like 22-99(after flop check back), or we can call a normal sized turn stab from the Middle player.
The more I think about it, I do like the 25 sizing you suggest tho, because villain can peel a bit lighter and will make turn barrel even better. But do think checking may hold higher ev with this specific holding. I’d want to pure bet AJ and lower
EDIT: Also, I don't expect Q9 to fold turn FWIW to two barrels even if he had more behind. Maybe three barrels, but honestly I would be looking to give up most rivers against an unknown rec and be way unbalanced towards value, and only choose to use 3 barrels against people I want to be balanced against/are capable of folding top pair
April 1, 2021 | 11:38 a.m.
This isn’t online however, and bluffing frequencies do tend to be lower in live.
In this spot I can have checked back 77 as bluff catchers, probably A8s that checks back. Very few hands. But I’m not trying to call at a proper frequency against a player like this. I’m just thinking about his range and if he is likely bluffing enough or not Based on combinatorics/price
I’m not saying that JT/76/QT always lead turn, just think it naturally happens that way at a higher frequency, so a healthy percentage is filtered from his range after checking twice. Not all of course.
Based on “feel”, I just don’t see people leading rivers as a bluff much. I think what’s more likely to be happening is he called the turn w a 9x/22, and then doesn’t want the river to be checked thru.
Could be wrong and that’s why I posted it, because I def thought it was close. At multiple points in the hand