It sounds like it may play similar to live games where there isn’t much 3betting and lots of cold calling.
Don’t be afraid to even open 4x or 5x if it’s called for. And then can just open tighter from earlier positions, but would say you can expand from the button and possibly CO as even though you are opening bigger, you aren’t getting punished for it and you’re over realizing your equity due to them playing too fit or fold postflop/not 3betting/not check raising aggressively enough
Jan. 16, 2021 | 3:36 p.m.
Live 1-3, $500 Cap
Weak Reg opens to $15 UTG 8-Max playing $500 Eff. Kinda weak that is cold calling 4-5x open raises from an UTG player with AJo from the SB. Can be kind aggro post in spots with blockers and stuff. (seen a spot where he defend bB vs a HJ or CO 4x open w A7o then proceeded to check raise a monotone flop, barrel turn and riv w blocker)
Hero has 22 LJ playing $520 Eff
Blinds in situation aren't terrible, seem like semi-thinking fish, definitely aren't squeezing light, and still likely to be substantially worse than you would see in an online 25-50NL table for example, $520 and $400 respectively
HJ is $225, 30 year old who is unknown, some type of recreational who is very likely not to squeeze light, as most live players won't
CO is $450, some type of recreational who again will not squeeze light, when I say won't squeeze light, alot aren't even squeezing AKo here anywhere close to 100%, or maybe not at all
Bttn is $450, 45-50 year old talkative fish, unlikely squeezing at all without big pair or AK
I pretty much auto folded here, as I thought it was super close even without the presence of light squeezers, as going mult way and flopping bottom set can be quite hazardous. But I still think I should be calling here. As even if it goes multway, say we get 2 callers behind, we only need to make 5x our $15 investment to breakeven. so in a $60 pot we need to make back like $75, which seems quite easy, and we can still make alot vs two pair and strong top pair in this scenario, and that should compensate for the times we get oversetted.
Thoughts? This may be hard to understand if you haven't played much live, but implied odds exist in live like they don't in online games pretty regularly
Jan. 14, 2021 | 1:24 a.m.
to answer the question in your initial post as well, calling turn is reasonable vs some players.
I think the best way to approach this situation in a low stakes/micro pool is to just cbet 50% like you suggested. I'm going to be a bit more polarized here and not just auto Cbet all my 8x and Ax, although you could. I like the cbet option as there is alot of equity you can clean up on the flop, and by using a 50% sizing, I think there's a chance BB plays worse and makes mistakes of folding too much possibly hands like 44 or 22.
I think checking back goes up in value if you are confident that you are up against someone who may do alot of stabbing on turn to give up on river. As checking back to call turn/fold river could lead to problems as our showdown isn't being realized.
It's also possible to have multiple sizing on flop here as well. Using 1/3 more often with 8x and some Ax, and using a larger sizing with hands that want immediate folds. It's exploitative but not a big deal if your pool isn't taking advantage of this.
I also think you can raise to at least 3x at 10nl preflop. I think playing tighter and putting more money in the pot when you want to play a pot is a good idea with such a high rake.
Jan. 14, 2021 | 12:33 a.m.
I get that we get him to fold worst hands, but we also make him lose a ton of equity realization(like 76s or something for example). But if because of ICM we would have to fold vs a jam, then yeah, I get that 3betting this would not be good.
I guess ICM is a piece of theory I will have to learn if I want to play in tournaments then, because that seems like a big consideration of why this wouldn't be 3balled.
Without ICM(AKA cash game), I think this would still be good enough to 3b at these depths against a SB range, as it's a pretty good risk/reward and we can just punish alot of hands and prevent them from realizing equity. But do agree at shallower stacks even in cash games it becomes more reasonable to flat and just play post flop against super wide ranges. For example, KJs at 30bb would likely be flatted way way more than at deeper stacks.
Jan. 9, 2021 | 4:01 a.m.
Like the preflop call having position and low spr. However, when he makes his 4b so big he is probably committing with his range so don’t mind a jam to fade things like Kx on flop and miss value from QQ. Think it’s also kinda obvious that we can flat AA pre so we may not get as much action as we may expect.
Do like the flat tho as we prob get a lot of value from too many flop cbet, and let unpaired hands to connect to a flop. Can’t really fault either line. I would base it as much as I could on the villain. More passive id just rip pre, vs someone I think may overbluff post may flat.
Jan. 6, 2021 | 5:38 p.m.
I also don’t really love idea of range checking, as the guy on my left may stab flop a lot, but think he checks back quite a bit on turn.
Suppose we could actually range check tho, as it’s possible to check raise maybe a bit thinner, or as a super exploitative option, maybe we can even do some check call, leading the turn with our value, even tho it will be super unbalanced.
There’s no rule saying I can’t donk thrn value heavy if I think they only stab once a lot, as I want to reopen action if they will just call light. Really would hate to miss value from like QJ by calling two bets and then checking river.
Suppose checking range in general actually makes a lot of sense here, as we can then have a strong range going to turn, we can check raise and even Donk at times if it seems good. But mostly just checking to raise, call fold and not Donk turn.
We can also just bet range I suppose here as well, as when we raise in this situation our range is so super strong. I’m just not sure how well these guys will appreciate that, so maybe exploitativley we can do more checking to see their action and proceed from there. Not sure we miss much action by doing this when we are against more aggressive players multi-way oop
Jan. 6, 2021 | 5:20 p.m.
Live 1-3, $500 Cap, Florida
Bttn straddles $6 and is $300 eff
Hero raise BB 8-Max to $22 AcKs $750 eff
Player on direct left cold calls $750 eff
player on left is a recreational who is def capable of folding top pair against alot of action, and will flat kinda wide pre. all offsuit broadways, all pairs, all suited connectors and gappers, maybe even stuff like T9o or 98o or Q9o etc. He used to be a huge whale but after getting stacked repeatedly by me seems to have realized he can't bluff me like crazy/run me over. Still prob calls too light tho
Bttn is a splashy side recreational who seems to be kind of thinking, but def no solid theory understanding. Think will call down too light in general too with top pair, especially when the SPR gets lowered like this.
Pot = $60
I open action with a $40 bet, intending to follow thru on the river when a C comes in if I only face a call from one of them. Think vs the 2 check back ranges, they often do not contain Jx in range, and are capped at Tx and weak stuff that fold to a turn bet. Against Tx we have our outs, plus I can bluff club rivers to make up for any lack in turn fold equity we may have.
BUT what I am wondering after thinking about this hand, is what do we do when we don't turn a "flush draw" turn. Like say the turn is a rainbow, now what do we do with a hand like AK. Could we still profitably stab turn to give up river? Likely alot of Txin their ranges, and they also prob stab alot of their equity when check too(say KQ, Q9o etc)
I think it's prob not profitable to stab turn with out the ability to confidently follow thru on a good river like when we have the nut blocker. And it's live so after we check flop and go bet bet, I think these guys will just be like "you no have Jx or better cuz you check flop, so I call any Tx". I guess maybe it's a spot we just super underbluff unless we have reason to think we can actually make them fold some stuff?
Curious how other people may be approaching this situation. And how you may approach it from the get go on the flop.
Jan. 6, 2021 | 4:23 p.m.
Live 1-3, $500 Cap, Florida
An Unknown Reg to me raises HJ to $20 $500eff.. (I have a friend in game who is also a reg and I have insight that in his words this guy is a "standard Reg". I didn't see his name on 2-5 List either, so maybe is more a Live 1-3 Grinder and just okay in skill level. Have no idea specifics.)
Hero CO AsAh $450 eff raises to $60
Folds to HJ who calls
Pot = $123
Hero Bets $40
Pot = $203
HJ bets $150
Basically, I am wondering about turn check, and if ever Flop can even be checked.
I think it's likely given the dynamics, this guys range will be super narrow preflop. Something like 99-QQ, AKo, maybe AKs given he doesn't know me yet and a live player is 3betting his HJ raise, so maybe he defaults to flatting pre, and TBH I would think it's pretty okay and correct in alot of live dynamics. I'm not sure AJs or KQs gets flatted pre( I think these should be 4b before flatted here, as I am going to be kinda narrow here, but who knows just how aware this guy is, maybe he calls more than I anticipate because he is risking 40 to win 120, getting 1:2.)
So his range looks like to me 99-QQ, AK, and maybe 1 combo of AQs, and maybe AJ or KQ, but not sure these are even in there.
So after we bet flop, maybe he flop raises some sets, QQ(3), and 99(1) for 4 combos in flatting range. So on turn, hands we get value from are like AQs(1), maybe KQs(0-3, lets call it 1), AJcc(.5), AKcc(.5), so maybe a questionable 3 combos. So all in all, I really like my turn check back.
On river, I guess we just have a call. My assumptions can certainly be wrong on turn, so with that combined with worst value hands like AQs from him, he needs very few bluffs/worst hands to show up here for us to have a profitable call. I think he folds JTs pre for example, but maybe he vpips these, or AJcc, or even AcKx vs the small cbet.
Had it checked to me on river, I think the best sizing is likely something like 30%, as alot of his range after a check is likely like TT-JJ, and alot of his strong hands prob bet themselves.
It "feels" so tight to check back here, but I think it makes sense logically and is correct. Anyone disagree or have anything to add?
Jan. 6, 2021 | 4:05 p.m.
I don't' know Tournament theory at all, completely cash game player. In the first hand w KQs vs the SB open, this is BB vs SB if I see it correctly.
KQs is a slam dunk 3b for value BB vs SB typically. I know the shorter stacks are something, as we can easily get stacks in post by flatting. But is 3betting like 2x not an option with these shallow stacks? I mean it does create an odd SPR. Or even using a larger 3b allowing for a frequent flop jam.
It appears to me, as you said, he is going to have an insanely wide range, so I would think this would incline us to want to collect alot of equity with a 3b. collecting the 3.5bb(and an ante if there is one) seems pretty sick, especially with 30bb eff. A 10% increase in stack size. And if we get jammed on we have a pretty good hand for 30bb stacks.
Suppose my perspective is largely shaped by survival not being a thing, as in cash we can just rebuy, so just taking the highest EV line is just the thing to do. What creates the dynamic in tournaments at this stack depth that makes this not a 3b?
Jan. 6, 2021 | 3:31 p.m.
Few things on turn...
I think because the ranges are so narrow and villain likely doesn’t have much offsuit combos in range(AKo prob getting 4B HJ vs co), on turn is be checking back JJ/QQ/KK+.
I think it’s possible for 1/3 to exist in this game tree, possibly having some river overbets, and using the 1/3 with some flushes, straight and bluff with good blockers(we have a huge range advantage here since we 3b things like A5s, AKs and he doesn’t call them pre. But practically speaking, at 50nl I think we want to create a symmetrical sizing and not be overbetting here when we have it as we don’t want them to overfold.
So I’d likely choose a strategy where I check back some combos that only get one more clean street of value(JJ+), and then use a 2/3 sizing like you did setting up a less than pot size riv shove.
I’d use AxKd as my turn barrel blocking KJdd/KTs, and prob check back some AdKx to open up the river with as a bluff.
Jan. 6, 2021 | 2:02 p.m.
From my experience this is somewhat true. I played a lot of volume on bovada/ignition, and I remember something my friend and I always had to take into consideration was what we called the “X factor”. People could just show up with stuff out of left field.
This was a couple years ago and things may have changed with all the content that this site has been creating, essentially promoting the site to pros, making the games tougher, plus them opening up the pool to some euro countries.
Specifically bovada is interesting too because they have a casino component, so you’ll get players who aren’t really poker players in the mix, and that is obviously really good for the games.
I definitely had to readjust a bit when leaving anon to play in a pool with screen names. Chiefly I had to be more careful with my exploitative lines.
In general I always really liked anon games, as it’s easier to look at a situation in a vacuum and kinda create a strategy you think will be good for the moment and not worry about the long term consequences due to there being no history.
I’d go for it. My experience tells me they have been better than named sites.
Jan. 5, 2021 | 2:27 p.m.
Against a reg im probably flatting turn to let him value town himself/continue bluffing.
Against a recreational I’m mostly just raising turn for value, but flatting could be good if they are the aggressive type and can barrel off/value cut themselves.
A concern I have about raising turn is people probably are quite accustomed to making big turn folds, so it kinda skews his range in a bad way, so I’d like to flat to keep it wider. When he jams we aren’t very excited, but still stacking. Where if we flat we get to play against a range we are quite far ahead of.
Jan. 4, 2021 | 4:10 p.m.
Just wanted to do a quick update on my thoughts over the past week and what I've been up too.
A poker room in my area ran a promo for December, in which 60 hours of play would result in a $600 cash reward. Pretty sweet rake back reward I'd say!
I completed it on Tuesday. More important than the money, however was lessons learned during this time.
Since this particular poker room is an hour away, a couple of my closer poker friends and I carpooled to the room together to save on gas, as well as just make the drive not so taxing and lonely.
As a result, I really enjoyed playing poker over the past 3 weeks. Showing up to the poker room together, almost gave it a team feel. We of course are all acting independently, but taking breaks/lunch breaks together, discussing hands, just made it much more enjoyable. Being able to get immediate feedback on decisions you may be questioning is pretty awesome and really helps feeling confident on the felt. Or having someone you know in the game watching you, pointing out where you could've done better. (example from this week: I played a hand where I bluffed river and got called. Shortly after at the urinal my friend told me he would've flop raised, and it made a lot of sense and helped me remember an important lesson against fun players) Without him in the game I may not have considered that option much further, so I was grateful for the feedback.
I also found it fun to be "working the room" together. Having multiple eyes on the room, determining where the best games are. Some days, there are just so many games to choose from, that it can be a bit overwhelming. It is easy to become complacent on days and just not optimize the best game to be in, but having eachother to shoot a text, being like "X game has a big spot in it, I'd get a seat there" can be helpful, particularly on days we just aren't operating at our best. All in all, the past 3 weeks really gave me an appreciation for a different side of the game, and that is having a gang who is focused on the same mission, feeding off eachother.
Another lesson was a reminder from my past on compartmentalizing things. I used to be a competitive Yu-Gi-Oh! player back in the 2000's, becoming globally recognized and ranked 3rd in the world. I remember one of the most important lessons I learned during that experience in my life that really helped me to excel was to take tournaments "one round at a time". Tournaments would usually consist of 8-10 forty minute rounds of swiss, followed by a top 8 or 16 cut, where the players who made the cut would come back the following morning to compete for 1st place. It's an overwhelming task to try and digest all that a tournament will entail from the beginning.
I remember an "ah-ha" moment from my youth when a player in the community named Alex Vansant, casually said something to me along the lines of "I'm only playing this round" on his way to a match. It really hit me, as trying to win the whole tournament at once, is A) impossible, and B) overwhelming. All you can really do is take it round by round, step by step.
In the past couple weeks when I found myself becoming a bit overwhelmed, I tried to remember this, apply it to poker, and reframe my mind. "Just this hand".
"I am on the button, the blinds are playing this way".
"I am in the HJ with a splashy player on the button, I am going to adjust a bit by folding the bottom of my range"
etc etc etc.
I think there is immense value in taking things step by step. Reframing our mind to what is actually happening. Not being distracted by all the noise that is not relevant to the task at hand, playing poker.
While others are being distracted by thoughts, phones, fear, we can take it step by step, hand by hand, trying our best to make the best decision in the moment. And in that way, we can see things more clearly, more consistently.
Happy New Years Guys!
Edit: oh yeah, and my local room just relocated! :D It's super nice, and as you can see, Poker is still alive! :)
Dec. 31, 2020 | 1:42 p.m.
What are you really losing by just this as a 100% flat call though. I suppose a bit of board coverage? Surprising that it would be 3b that frequent honestly.
I know in my pool I'm never 3betting this combo, hard to see why it would be necessary, but maybe at 200/500 on PS you just need to have a much less transparent strategy.
Dec. 31, 2020 | 1:02 p.m.
I think we can pitch this combo. Having the 9 blocks T9 and 98 which kinda sucks. If we are choosing best bluff catcher the 5x is actually quite an interesting one blocking his sets/A3 and unblocking T9s, 98s, KT. But maybe not as great at first glance as 55 prob gets folded often pre. Even then it’s kinda close it seems to me unless he is defending wider or finding other bluff candidates(A2 for example).
I think having AJ with a J that blocks QJ or JJ is prob better than the 5x here. Blocking AQ, A3, QJ, JJ.
I do like a flop check fwiw as well. Don’t like the 3b but as you said you’re doing it super infrequent so whatever I guess lol
Dec. 31, 2020 | 3:33 a.m.
LJ Limps $150 eff
Hero CO raise K8dd to $15
Bttn Cold calls playing $450 some sort of loose aggro rec, not crazy tho
BB calls, sticky weak lady $300
Limper Calls(Weak Recreational guy in 50's)
Pot = $57
Check Check, Hero C-Bet $25
Bttn Fold, BB fold, Limper calls
Pot = $107
Limper checks with about $110 Behind
I range this guy to have maybe all combos of Axo, maybe raising AK, but totally capable of just limp calling AQ, potentially even AK, but prob lower frequency. Imagine Raising range is something like 99+, AQs, AK, and then limping the rest.
On turn, I think his range looks alot like Ax, some two pair, some pair+draws, including alot of offsuit combos like JTo, 98o, as well as Q7s, Q6s, maybe Q8o.
I broke this down into flopzilla and gave him a range of about 244 combos on the turn, and expected him to fold something like 90ish combos to a turn jam, which with our equity would lead to about a 0 ev jam. Give or take a little, as maybe he folds more Ax than I am giving him credit for, but think it balances out a bit because population of players that fit his description might still just call off with any Ax at this stack depth.)
244 Total combos. need 122 folds, but have 25% equity. So 122x .75 = 92.
Basically, I think jamming is good for sure, but I also think checking is good. I just don't know how to quantify the two options. A jam I estimate is around 0EV, BUT, it does get villain to fold a large portion of his range that checking would not be able to capitalize on, say the 98o or KT or K9o of his world. They would all get to realize their full equity, as I am likely not reopening the action if I check back the river, plus some of them may get to bluff me(less of a concern here)
While I think the jam is 0EV, the capitalization of dead money has to be worth something, right? I mean checking back I realize my 25% equity for free, and then can get stacks on a diamond vs like 80 combos. I don't lose the $110 vs his snap calls, but I also don't gain the $110 vs his folds.
On the surface, if a play is 0EV, then if an alternate option(checking) realizes our 25% (free), and then can get clean value when we hit, and fold when we miss, that seems like a win as well. I suppose, there is a slight margin of error here however, where if he folds slightly more than we predict(say any weak Ax), then jamming quickly becomes superior.
If I am not bluffing this combo, I am basically not bluffing here against this player, which I don't think is an issue as he will not be aware of this as I don't play with him often. So I am just looking for the highest EV line and not concerned about having bluffs to incentivize him to make loose calls. He will do this on his own.
So, my main question is, is even if a bluff is around the threshold of breakeven/0EV, is there a gain I am missing that would be greater than the gain of checking back?
My guess is no. If we lose equal parts vs his calls, and win equal parts vs his folds, then if an alternate option would net a 25% gain vs 33% of his range, than it will still be marginally better to just check behind, realize our equity, not have turn bluffs, and get stacks in when we get there.
FWIW, I estimate around 81 combos that would stack off on a 2d river for example. so thats worth $110x81 = $8100x .25 = 2025.
It's pretty close for sure, as my estimation has him folding say A2-A5, and calling A6-A8. It's possible he just folds A2-A7, which would be an additional 24 combos or 2640 in EV.
Suppose it just is a really close spot between the two options and I don't hate either or. Suppose the most important thing is to have a solid understanding if he actually has things like A2o in range, and will he be willing to fold them for a 33bb pot size jam or not, and that will be the most important determinate in if it is better to jam or check.
In the moment i went with the check, but in hindsight I think just going ahead with the jam is totally fine. Because something else that is relevant is the future EV of jamming. If the two options are really that close, then the EV of just taking the aggressive action for sake of image is pretty nice. If you get called you are now perceived as possibly being overly aggro which can help getting paid in the future. so there are some non-tangibles in play here I think.
Dec. 30, 2020 | 4:01 p.m.
It sounds like maybe your just stacking off too light against passive players and are blaming the site for being rigged. It's kinda standard to not stack off with AKo/JJ and even QQ quite often in live dynamics because people are so passive(even SB vs Bttn;
I would fold QQ to a 4B very often and no sweat against many players in my pool, just because they only 4b me with KK+). I find live spots very often where I am even folding AKo to a 3b, and confident it is correct just given the dynamics of live poker. I'm not trying to be an asshole here. That just seems more likely to me than the site being rigged. I know a couple people here in Florida who are doing quite well on it, and never mention of it being rigged. They got me curious about starting to play on it as well. I may be wrong, it might be rigged, I just don't see the incentive to do that. Maybe it could generate action, sure. But there's already quite alot of action in poker as it is. And the downside of running a rigged site is losing trust and losing it all. Just don't think it's likely. But of course it could be possible. If I thought something was rigged, I just wouldn't play on it, unless of course it was a proveable thing that I could take advantage of. Just sounds very unlikely, and maybe more likely you are struggling with results oriented thinking, which is something that can be very hard to see through at times, especially during times of variance or other things going on in life.
Dec. 30, 2020 | 2:55 p.m.
I think you can reraise flop like you did. Against a player like this I’m not looking to be balanced at all. If he is check raising the flop with top pair and can fold to a flop 4b, that seems like a pretty awesome result. Even against a nut flush draw we have 9 outs/36%.
In general I think I would prefer to 4b the flop with a hand like KQdd or something that doesn’t block his 98dd combos, as I want to have option of villain stacking off with a lower redraw.
Additionally, I would deviate from a balanced approach here again against a recreational player, say if I had like TT, as I would not want a scare card to come in and lose action, and I’m not concerned about being taken advantage of against a fun player.
Buut, if it’s someone you play against often, it’s then maybe a good idea to do less of this.
Dec. 28, 2020 | 2:25 p.m.
Your most recent comment runittwice, sounds like you are just playing against worst players and are finally finding the adjustments(betting mbigger, bluffing less). You generally have less fold equity against inexperienced players and they also find way more passive lines, but when they open up, even if it doesn’t make sense they just have it, because they don’t understand getting value. They just want to win pots/not lose.
It honestly sounds like you have just been experiencing variance. It happens. But if you actually think it’s rigged, play elsewhere. The fact you are still playing on it makes me believe you truly don’t believe it’s rigged. Your adjustments to the “action loaded algorithm” sounds like the adjustments you make vs sticky live players.
I had a similar feeling at a time using the site global poker after crushing on ignition for years. I felt like I was getting sucked out on way harder and lots of stuff like that. But when I put my head down and really focused earlier this year, I realized that the dynamics are just different, and the pool was way more passive, so my strategies and meta game adjustments were a little off from playing on an anonymous site, and I had to find the correct readjustments.
Anyways, hope it’s not rigged, sounds like it’s not. But it is possible, and if so, why play there. If you’re winning long term it’s likely not rigged. you just gotta treat it more like live I’m guessing, as a lot of live players are on there. Snowie isn’t going to be super helpful for finding correct lines against people who play black and white. Flopzilla and range estimation is probably better for that
Dec. 28, 2020 | 1:45 p.m.
Fold river. There’s like no bluffs here, and imagine it’s very easy for people to just take their showdown with the bluff they do have falsely hoping for showdown....
I think it’s also possible for people to flat some AKo vs the 4b in these positions, so there’s even more value combos present.
On flop, if I bet I would be smaller, don’t think we need to bet that big here, a small bet puts a lot of pressure on things like 99, or even gutters aren’t loving it. But, I’d say checking could be an alright idea as well, as we can bluff catch good run outs. I wouldn’t jam river or turn, I’d either consider a small bet or a check back, just depending on the villain.
Dec. 27, 2020 | 1:48 p.m.
Any info into what kind of player this is?
I don’t think he has many missed FD here after calling two large bets oop on a paired board. He is donking 2x pot into a very strong looking range. If he has 11 value combos, he needs 7.5 worst “value hands”/bluffs to breakeven call. It’s possible K5o exists if he’s on the looser side. Even if he did this with all KJ, that’s still only 4 combos. I don’t think folding is that bad here unless he is capable of bluffing/spazzing
Dec. 24, 2020 | 1:42 p.m.
Live 1-3, $500 Cap
Reg Raise HJ to $12 playing $500 eff
Hero is on Button with AJo with $500eff
SB is some type of loose passive player with 40bb eff
BB is some type of recreational player, 150bb eff, don't know too much on him. Have inside info that he is capable of spazzing out, but not sure if that info is still relevant as it was based on history from the past and not today.
I flat call the $12 with the justification of weak blinds. I usually would 3b this combo, but with two weak blinds I think the EV of this hand goes up.
Anyways, I flat call, and the BB calls as well.
First of all, if it checks to me, am I suppose to be bluffing here? It feels like if I start bluffing all of my AJo combos here, I am quickly going to get out of wack, and I think the Reg in this hand is capable of checking top pair to me. whether or not he is willing to call down 3 streets with KT or K9, I am not sure. Might be worth finding out I suppose. I would typically choose more of the JTs, T9s, ATs, AJs to begin a multi-street bluff with. I don't expect to get check raised much here, as I think the top of his range is mostly going to bet with a weak player in the pot.
So, if I have a value range that looks something like KQo(9), KJs(3), KTs(3), 33(3), I have about 18 value combos here.
As for bluff candidates, I have AJ(16), T9s(4), JTs(4), for 24 bluff combos.
On the river to make him indifferent vs a pot size shove, we would need a 2:1 ratio, so for 18 value combos, we would have 9 bluffs, which the T9 and JT fulfill, except they do block his most likely folds(KT/K9), but they also do not block his Qx combos like AJ does. I think using the T9/JT combos are probably sufficient however, as KQo is still getting 3b at some clip. And suppose KTs isn't going to just rip 3 huge bets.
But if we backstep to the flop, this is where I really have no idea. I imagine we do get to bluff more from the flop, as A)equity, B)we can make other parts of his range fold like underpairs/random pieces of equity like 78s. So my best guess is we can bluff more from the flop, and then each street we drop off parts of the bluffs until we reach the river when equity is over and we can pick the correct ratio, being more clear when there are no cards to come.
Feedback please :)