20:45 BTN open 2.5, hero 10bb, BB 23bb. Hero calls.
FLop XX. Turn XC like 40%. River XF 75%.
Ever consider XRAI on the turn with the double flush draw board? Given the .75 SPR on the river if you call, I don't think top pair does any folding.
May 26, 2022 | 11:42 p.m.
River decision making! Almost no coach does anything focused on the river play for the most important street because there are so few combos and the range make up is all over the place. I wouldn't mind if you did every video just on river play a lone! Facing a BXB, BBB, XBB, SRP, 3BP, 4BP, etc. Any time you face a river bet. I would literally watch like 10 hours straight of just river play if I could.
May 26, 2022 | 9:55 p.m.
Patrick Sekinger Any theory coaches you know that can confirm 50/50 thing I'm talking about? It was Grindcore the theory coach from Guerilla poker for the video I saw about it. Why else would it call weaker pairs like 8X+ blocker to the straight over TX?
May 26, 2022 | 9:51 p.m.
42min Regarding the calling range for the last hand where the A7, K7, AT, KT are being made indifferent and PIO is calling more with lower kickers with straight blockers or even lower pairs i.e J8 with straight blocker. I saw a video a while ago that talked about how theory is calling strong value for half its range and then the other half of the calling range is made up of blockers. Here you are folding 44% & continue 56%, so of the 56% hands, 28% are going to be the strongest hands in your range and the other 28% are going to contain blockers to villain's nutted hands.
Would be nice to see a video that covers this concept as its very powerful that most people have no idea about. Most people would just chalk this up to call TX+ but no idea about the theory on this river decision. Whether or not calling these blockers in practice is good or not is another question. I would want to call AT/KT because I think villain can still bet some TX for value.
I'm enjoying these PIO reviews from these HH. Busting out a note pad to develop some heuristics would add a lot of value to it as well.
May 25, 2022 | 10:37 p.m.
Luke Johnson I think I came up with something that makes some sense to me at least. Preflop the charts on the right are 3 betting more suited broadways, so postflop it is choosing QTc to continue with because a lot of the other suited broadways get 3bet preflop. Where the chart on the left looks like a more polarized 3betting range, so postflop it has more AJs-ATs, KQs-K10s to defend with before having to defend QTc.
May 25, 2022 | 9:01 p.m.
May 25, 2022 | 9:06 a.m.
Tyler Forrester so here I looked UTG vs BTN call vs SB squeeze to simulate the 5.7% 3bet range. The 3bet size is obviously larger, but the 3bet range is going to be more accurate. Is this what you were talking about with AJs not being profitable because of the tight range vs UTG? At what size vs this 5.7% 3bet range do we start to call?
May 24, 2022 | 11:11 p.m.
May 24, 2022 | 7:45 p.m.
Luke Johnson I'm trying to study this spot a bit more and looked at a 27% cb and a 33% cb. One sim has QTc as pure call and other as 87% fold. I can't figure out the difference as the cb size is only 1.5bb vs 1.8bb.
May 24, 2022 | 1:35 a.m.
15:30 given AQ KQs KJs are checking back on the river. Would you ever consider just leading 10% to induce or to block bet some KK-JJ hands? On some lower stake games when I play XC XC I feel like I should lead my completed made hands because they are not value betting or bluffing enough on the river.
May 24, 2022 | 1:12 a.m.
27:55 You mentioned the J is good for your range, but you don't want to bet TX on the turn? I agree it seems a bit thin, but I think TX can still go 2 streets here. On the river you have check already checked, but if SB is betting all of its JX after playing BC-X-? then I think TX becomes an easy value bet on the right? Also going back to the turn I just see a ton of value from hands like 99, 88, 87, 97s, 85s, etc that have the pair + gutter. Probably end up with too many bluffs on the river and not enough value if you are not betting TX.
58:00 You mentioned Ac5c folds the flop? I think most nut FD back door continues, The Ac5c also has some bdsd equity, but ace high is still beating some king-high as well that cb's. I am probably continuing too many back door draws. Just looking at a sim, I do see Ac5c folding a small frequency of the time (11%), but other hands I would continue with like QcTc / QcJc seem to be folding 87% of the time. With 2 overs + bdsd + bdfd, I don't see why these hands are folding vs a 1/3 bet. Is it just because hero is OOP? Please help me understand this spot for back door floats. This appears to be a huge leak of mine. Thanks Luke Johnson Looking more at the sim the KcTc will call vs 1/3 but QcTc folds. But QcTc turns OESD on J or 8, where KcTc only turns OE on 8. This is a bit confusing to me. Is turning top pair Qx not good enough? I don't see a big difference between KcTc > QcTc.
May 23, 2022 | 9:02 a.m.
Luke Johnson I think Jeff was talking about this hand at 9:36 where you said AT "shouldn't have it on the flop" The actual hand takes place T#1 at 7:50 mark. I do see mostly AcTx or AxTc betting this board for 2/3 sizing, but there are some combos of AsTx and AxTs betting as well for a 1/3 sizing. I would guess SB is making a mistake of betting too many single spade or single club hands for this 2/3 size on the flop.
I think I understand what Jeff_ is saying as well. You realize you made a mistake on the flop with over cbetting or using the wrong size. Usually when this happens I am more likely to forfeit the hand and take a more passive action rather than forcing aggression on turn / river with good blockers / unblockers.
I also double checked what you said on the turn at the 8min mark. Where you mentioned the 51% turn barrel is fine but 2/3 will have higher EV. Spot on! And I also have this issue because I try not to create such a low SPR on the river or pot commit myself on the turn with certain hands.
May 23, 2022 | 8:01 a.m.
26:15 when you say with AJs vs small 3bet you're going to have to make a call.... Does this mean you are considering folding it vs a normal 11-12bb 3bet? Typically I would defend something like 99+, A10s+, KJs+ and mix in some 4bet bluffs with A5s/AQo. Thoughts? I noticed a lot of small 3bets OOP and honestly Idk how to play against them. I know the range is only going to be 5-8% vs EP/MP despite the small sizing, but I really don't like folding vs them. Appreciate your thoughts on what range you would defend Ep,MP, CO, BTN vs SB small 3bet given the tight range / small 3bet.
33:30 With K7s CO you mentioned if SB went to 6 or 7 you would fold this, but at 5 you have to call. Isn't his 3bet 7.5 already?
36:00 You mentioned you would play one more orbit and sit out next BB. I am not sure if you ever noticed this, but often times and I mean REALLY OFTEN!!! When I click sit out next BB I tend to get SB 2-3 times, which beats the entire point of playing one last orbit because you pay the same amount of money waiting for the BB to come around. Notice 2 hands later you are SB again with 54h. I don't think I'm too delusional about this either because if I look at my database and I don't play any heads up I have more SB's than any other position.
May 23, 2022 | 7:13 a.m.
7:39 mentioned you want to fire 2 barrels here with A9 (before the XR). I was wondering are you more likely to barrel A9 vs someone who has a calling range in the SB or less likely? Usually SB cold calls makes me not want to barrel them being more fishy.
18:30 I know with AKo solver does a lot of 4betting all in OOP facing a 3bet. Do you ever do this? Or do you mostly just 4bet regular size / flat the 3bet? Also on the 996r board, doesn't look like solver ever uses XRAI, but does use XR (33%) roughly 3x some of the time. Which makes sense because we don't really want TT/JJ to fold right? and you said QQ isn't a good call but they always seem to make it, which I agree with. People just don't fold over pairs. Also in solver land QQ is never folding but JJ starts to fold a tiny bit. Because JJ doesn't 4bet much preflop EP vs MP, I do agree vs 4bet and XR flop, opponent will just end up seeing a lot of AA/KK here and QQ seems a lot better than it actually is. I like your play, but would prefer a club on the board.
May 23, 2022 | 6:48 a.m.
A 2nd part of this analyzing river bet size being value / bluff heavy would be cool to see. I think the river all ins are more value heavy. People tend to bluff smaller size just hoping you missed some draw or fold 2nd pair.
May 22, 2022 | 11:37 p.m.
Some of the AQ/AK/AJ/KQ hands you mentioned using 98Xss as an example are very confusing to me because I use the principle approach quite a bit or a more polarized cbet strategy. However, I think a lot of these hands in theory are just bluffs to balance out some of the AA-JJ in the range. I know Tyler mentioned in one video using the suited variety to balance bluffs vs value to avoid over bluffing certain spots. I haven't quite figured it out yet. There are 24 combos of over pairs AA-JJ (not counting TT). Then if you look at AKs, AQs, AJs, KQs, KJs, and QJs there are 24 combos of these suited hands, so it makes a nice 1:1 ratio on the turn for value to bluff. I'm trying to train my mind to think more like this and a combination of no sdv, so I should bluff. Really hard to pull the trigger on some of these hands when when you get a board that has 2-3 cards between Q-8 that smacks the callers range.
May 22, 2022 | 10:43 p.m.
Do you build any questions into your heuristics
1) Does my hand need protection? I.E the A6c towards the end on 642ss board I was shocked to see it betting without 44/22 much in range. So maybe TPTK is betting all textures?
2) Can I get called by worse and get better to fold?
3) Do I have 2 pairs / sets on this board?
Still a bit confused. Look forward to part 2.
May 21, 2022 | 9:47 p.m.
On wizard I would select the range you want to play to avoid the weird mixes, ATo+ KJo+ QJo+ A3s+ K8s+ 55+ and drill accordingly. Also would be nice to see the EV comparison on PIO when you only choose one size and eliminate the other 3 sizes being used. Overall awesome video! Look forward to seeing other formations for flop play SRP / 3BP.
I think this video will be able to answer some of your questions about how to use the trainer more effectively. In the video Steve Paul you mentioned seeing range frequencies for different bet sizes. This video shows you how to view them (screen shot below).
May 21, 2022 | 8:15 p.m.
Good luck everyone. Last month I think 5th or 4th place was only around 30 points!
May 3, 2022 | 4:17 p.m.
the goals for this month are as follows:
1. play 40k+ hands, getting in to a regular 5 day per week poker routine.
2. either re join the gym again or get back in to a consistent running routine, or both.
3. eat healthily. no takeaways this month.
4. sort out where i am moving next.
I'm on the same page as you once again! Had a rough couple of months, which hurt my volume because when I'm playing bad or running bad it makes me not want to put any volume in and just hit the books. I won't be moving until end of the year or January though. For #3 I started to be more disciplined on this yesterday, "New Month New Me" type of approach. Started exercising again the day before that. Added to eating healthy to consume enough water. So have a bet with my GF to consume 100oz of water per day or 4 gallons every 5 days. For exercise I am just doing a light workout in the morning / early afternoon when I wake up; something to get blood flowing and some positive energy, then at night I'll do a harder workout so I'm tired and go to bed earlier. If I workout too hard in the morning, I burn too much energy before my study / grind session.
Come to America and play live poker! I think you will destroy live games and climb up to high stakes really quickly.
May 2, 2022 | 8:54 p.m.
JoeAdams1 its based on XR hands without SDV that can still improve to top pair. A hand like A4s for example if opponent 4bet a hand like K10s, can still improve to A (3 outs) or bdfd (1 out). Where PP just has 2 outs and likely ends up getting bluffed off its equity from AJs/A10s that it is ahead of on future streets.
April 29, 2022 | 7:12 p.m.
Because this low down they don’t usually put in two bets themselves with top pair but will put it in if you do it. Exploit, not protection
Even in 4BP? TP is not putting in 2bets? I would have some serious alarm bells going off 200bb deep when you raise the turn on A74ss-8x. Like are you turning A5s into a bluff? T9s J10s? Not sure if these FD are supposed to raise the turn or not or where the bluffs are supposed to come from. But if you say they will put it in, then don't need to find any bluffs.
April 28, 2022 | 10:21 p.m.
100% agree. I've been over loaded with content myself. A lot of theoretical stuff and how to deviate from the baseline. Literally like 75 hours of videos to watch separate from runitonce. Found one that is a really great exploit in MW pots recently. Not going to share it on here obviously but it is quite opening and most people don't know about it because they don't have MW solvers. People can figure it out if they understand the theory of MW pots though. Its an exploit I haven't seen from the pool yet, so pretty excited to try it out! I always said the opposite btw when bluff catching river LOL "Curiosity killed the cat" so folding like 57% hahah. It is coming down from that mark as I am learning better turn strategy, but still too high. Have managed to flatten my redline last 20k hands or so.
April 28, 2022 | 10:17 p.m.
I would talk to Galfond on how he managed business / poker adventures. Definitely hard to manage both and I assume a lot of the content quality for the stable will drop if you have too much on your plate. Might be realistic to just play like 200k hands for the year. Unless you are hiring multiple coaches to help manage everything. Get that passive income stream setup. Time for Tom or Brandon etc to get a raise and be promoted to take on some of your responsibilities? I'm not a businessman, just some suggestions. Enjoy your vacation!
April 28, 2022 | 10:10 p.m.
46min - You mentioned SB doesn't have a flatting range? I checked a couple of sims on wizard both for 10%, 13%, & 25% cb sizes and they all have flatting ranges. There was an old video with PSEK that talked about using small pairs in 4BP and the only raise size being XMR because of the SPR. I think Saulo might be mixing up either a texture or mixing up strategy in 3BP where some small pairs get turned into bluffs and 77 is going to be bottom of 3B range from the SB. So I think Saulo was turning bottom of pair range into a bluff. At least on wizard the bluffs are going to come from 1 over + gutter AJs A10s or OESD. Then some wheel aces with bdfd. Can you elaborate on why you would not have a flatting range here in the SB?