Good luck everyone. Last month I think 5th or 4th place was only around 30 points!
May 3, 2022 | 4:17 p.m.
the goals for this month are as follows:
1. play 40k+ hands, getting in to a regular 5 day per week poker routine.
2. either re join the gym again or get back in to a consistent running routine, or both.
3. eat healthily. no takeaways this month.
4. sort out where i am moving next.
I'm on the same page as you once again! Had a rough couple of months, which hurt my volume because when I'm playing bad or running bad it makes me not want to put any volume in and just hit the books. I won't be moving until end of the year or January though. For #3 I started to be more disciplined on this yesterday, "New Month New Me" type of approach. Started exercising again the day before that. Added to eating healthy to consume enough water. So have a bet with my GF to consume 100oz of water per day or 4 gallons every 5 days. For exercise I am just doing a light workout in the morning / early afternoon when I wake up; something to get blood flowing and some positive energy, then at night I'll do a harder workout so I'm tired and go to bed earlier. If I workout too hard in the morning, I burn too much energy before my study / grind session.
Come to America and play live poker! I think you will destroy live games and climb up to high stakes really quickly.
May 2, 2022 | 8:54 p.m.
JoeAdams1 its based on XR hands without SDV that can still improve to top pair. A hand like A4s for example if opponent 4bet a hand like K10s, can still improve to A (3 outs) or bdfd (1 out). Where PP just has 2 outs and likely ends up getting bluffed off its equity from AJs/A10s that it is ahead of on future streets.
April 29, 2022 | 7:12 p.m.
Because this low down they don’t usually put in two bets themselves with top pair but will put it in if you do it. Exploit, not protection
Even in 4BP? TP is not putting in 2bets? I would have some serious alarm bells going off 200bb deep when you raise the turn on A74ss-8x. Like are you turning A5s into a bluff? T9s J10s? Not sure if these FD are supposed to raise the turn or not or where the bluffs are supposed to come from. But if you say they will put it in, then don't need to find any bluffs.
April 28, 2022 | 10:21 p.m.
100% agree. I've been over loaded with content myself. A lot of theoretical stuff and how to deviate from the baseline. Literally like 75 hours of videos to watch separate from runitonce. Found one that is a really great exploit in MW pots recently. Not going to share it on here obviously but it is quite opening and most people don't know about it because they don't have MW solvers. People can figure it out if they understand the theory of MW pots though. Its an exploit I haven't seen from the pool yet, so pretty excited to try it out! I always said the opposite btw when bluff catching river LOL "Curiosity killed the cat" so folding like 57% hahah. It is coming down from that mark as I am learning better turn strategy, but still too high. Have managed to flatten my redline last 20k hands or so.
April 28, 2022 | 10:17 p.m.
I would talk to Galfond on how he managed business / poker adventures. Definitely hard to manage both and I assume a lot of the content quality for the stable will drop if you have too much on your plate. Might be realistic to just play like 200k hands for the year. Unless you are hiring multiple coaches to help manage everything. Get that passive income stream setup. Time for Tom or Brandon etc to get a raise and be promoted to take on some of your responsibilities? I'm not a businessman, just some suggestions. Enjoy your vacation!
April 28, 2022 | 10:10 p.m.
46min - You mentioned SB doesn't have a flatting range? I checked a couple of sims on wizard both for 10%, 13%, & 25% cb sizes and they all have flatting ranges. There was an old video with PSEK that talked about using small pairs in 4BP and the only raise size being XMR because of the SPR. I think Saulo might be mixing up either a texture or mixing up strategy in 3BP where some small pairs get turned into bluffs and 77 is going to be bottom of 3B range from the SB. So I think Saulo was turning bottom of pair range into a bluff. At least on wizard the bluffs are going to come from 1 over + gutter AJs A10s or OESD. Then some wheel aces with bdfd. Can you elaborate on why you would not have a flatting range here in the SB?
April 28, 2022 | 9:32 p.m.
Nice write up. I think my book will be here tomorrow. Will start working through TMPG1 again. I know it was huge for me when I was playing live poker. And I'm sure Eliot saved me a few $500 buy-ins as well. I agree with you on complimenting each other.
April 26, 2022 | 7:20 a.m.
Here is an interesting spot for you. 4BP BB vs EP as you mentioned. Ton of donking on this board. sizing is a bit weird preflop from 2.5 - 12 - 22. Then 1/3 (14.7bb) flop. On the turn its a 20% size 14.8bb out of a 63.3bb stack.
I agree people are using some type of RTA more and more now. Another spot I got into the other day where guy 3bet J9o on a flop of TT5dd, where I XR 97d. Hard to imagine people finding these 4% frequency 3bets. Then guy barrels turn on TT5dd-6x. And River bricks he decided to check back and win J-high. Felt like I'm running into superusers lately. This is only on 50NL as well.
Discord group thinks I'm crazy, but I honestly think these guys are just flying under the radar in big pools. Easier to get caught with this stuff at mid-high stakes. Lower stakes people just chalk it up to players clicking buttons. Becoming a bit annoying and missing live poker more and more every day I see shit like this happen.
April 22, 2022 | 10:40 p.m.
A couple of questions and some a bit off topic.
1) What is the avg stake? I assume its around 500NL being most players are 200NL - 1KNL after 10k-30k hands?
2) Just a comment but I'm actually quite surprised by the flat redline rather than upward redline. Flat redline is more appealing to the style I am comfortable with. It did feel a bit like a redline course when I was briefly with you guys.
3) 582 hands per hour with avg of 4.8 tables? Is anyone playing zoom? I know on iggy 4 regular tables is only around 250 hands per hour. The avg seems a bit high.
#4) This one is off topic, but listening to S4Y vlogcast. On Episode 19-20 they talk about recent cheating allegations around some tourney players. Also I didn't know this, but certain stables were giving their horses RTA to use? I knew RTA was a thing, but I didn't think stables would be doing this! I know you guys run a clean stable.
April 21, 2022 | 8:45 p.m.
I some what agree in terms of the food and cussing, but still entertaining videos. I'm a bit surprised based on username "livecashguy" that you are so annoyed with this stuff. Seems like a big part of the environment in live cash. You'll enjoy Luke's videos a bit more I think.
April 21, 2022 | 8:37 p.m.
should always play for stacks with a set. Even if villain has all 3 sets and you only have bottom set. But calling instead of raising is just due to SPR and keeping bluffing range intact for villain. If villain wants to turn KQ or QJs into a bluff or has over played ATs etc you want to allow them to keep barreling, but should never consider folding a set. Otherwise better to just fold preflop. You'll end up stacking AK a bunch in 3BP.
April 21, 2022 | 8:34 p.m.
Not many play zone
Thanks. Stay off my turf!! hahaha The short stacks are incredibly hard to read, there are some literally open folding QTs in the CO waiting for top 5% of hands and others are getting 43s and ATo all in preflop with 4bets and 5bets. Just wish Iggy allowed more tables (4) to make regular tables more appealing without mixing sites. Hitting a 10 buy-in downswing while four tabling reg tables feels devastating as it takes longer to recover. Plenty of upswings as well though.
April 18, 2022 | 7:38 p.m.
I think at higher stakes that bluffing works slightly worse, and bluff catching works slightly better.
100% agree with this. Very player dependent on lower stakes though, where players are to the left or right of the spectrum for over folding or over calling, where high stakes more balanced towards equilibrium.
You guys have any players playing zone? I'm starting to notice an absurd amount of river raises going on. Still struggling to pull the trigger because yesterday I tried this with KcTc 3-way on AJThh-4h-7h board and got called by KQo (no heart) with player behind him! Over the past 6 weeks or so, I would say the river aggression has nearly doubled in the pool.
April 16, 2022 | 8:17 p.m.
I know its just sample size, but always found it weird to be winning higher stakes and losing lower stakes i.e you are crushing 500NL and losing on 200NL. Based on the strategy do you think that lower stake players just don't fold enough for some of the CFP plays revolving around the redline? Happy to see you posting again, look forward to more graphs and HH.
April 16, 2022 | 5:54 p.m.
Patrick Sekinger I looked at two sims one for when BB squeezes using a linear range and one for when BB is more polar in a HU 3BP. In the HU pot I found A10s is folding more often vs the polar range than vs the linear range. I thought these double broadway boards would make A10s more of a fold as the polar range will have way more bluffs. Any idea why A10s calls more vs the linear range? I thought it would be the opposite.
Also I feel like your range here is protected by enough Qx. AK is going to be 4bet preflop a good portion of the time. The only missed draws you really have are KJs and AsJs for 5 combos. Also I was wondering would J10s be a better call than A10s? A10s blocks some AK, but J10s blocks some KJs.
Would be interested in seeing a PIO video of some hands you marked. A lot of tough spots in this video.
April 16, 2022 | 5:47 p.m.
14:30 confusing when you ISO vs UTG and SB limp. Then XX XX and raise the river. I thought JhJx ThTx like you mentioned would put in some money on an earlier street. This just looks bluffy to me or trying to get someone off a chop almost.
April 16, 2022 | 7:59 a.m.
In the video after turn XR mostly giving up the river unless hero improved. Didn't seem to improve almost ever :-( Glad you showed the data on not following through on the river with bluffs once they call turn XR. Is this mostly true for turn play as well after a flop XR? Where when we do have value and XR mostly just want to play for entire stacks given the lack of folds on future streets once XR is called.
A lot of the check raises you didn't like were the combo draws like AT on QJ48dd and J8d on T469dd. Should we just not care about getting blown off our equity? If we do XC these combo draws instead of XR, would you advocate donk betting river if we brick?
April 16, 2022 | 12:43 a.m.
Back from Vegas, I do not think I ran very well. I put in plenty of hours though! Was mostly playing graveyard as I was hanging out with family during the evenings. Maybe not the best idea because I wasn't not getting enough sleep, nutrition, and we know that means brain is not working to its full capacity. However, with that said I do think I played well overall. Lost around 3 buy-ins total between 1/3 and 2/5. Couple of hands I'll post below.
It is slightly tilting when you are losing to players that lift their cards off the table to see them. Tables were pretty soft, but players seem to run pretty well! One guy seemed to have an endless amount of 2 pair+ hands, which was becoming annoying to the table because he was the only person winning. He had to have around a 60% vpip with hands like limp call Q4s utg (8 handed) or flatting 5x opens 63s etc. It was a bit ludicrous how often this guy was making hands vs TPTK or over pairs.
HH#1 88 was definitely an over play. $1/$3 game flat btn with 88. BB and HJ both super recreational playing poker for what looks like their first time ever playing. CO was a tourney player of some kind but seemed rather solid. Turn was 7 to give the HJ quads! I actually felt pretty happy about this, long run this encourages these players to keep coming back. Making quads and winning a big pot their first time playing. Definitely gives the pool some EV long run.
Hand #2 It is what it is with QQ here. Don't expect KK to flat preflop. Guy was an action player around 60/20 preflop and didn't fold to many 3bets to the point he was cold calling 3bets with hands like QJo. This guy was just crushing the table though. The only thing that tilts me more is when the person shows their hand and you know they are calling but they waste time and give a speech "how can I fold this?" And they tank like 75 seconds before calling what is almost a min raise. I wouldn't expect this guy to fold a hand like 88 here let a lone KK. Maybe he thinks there is an actual camera where he gets some tv time. Seemed like quite a few Vegas players were doing this though.
One last thing I will say about the players, dealers, and just overall community in Vegas. I personally don't like anyone there. Most dealers are nice, but some are just scum or shady. When you try and talk to people they are mostly just quiet. Two quick stories.
Story #1 I ISO raise pre AsQx. Board runs out Ah 8s 5s 2s Ks. I faced a donk bet from a lady and she double barreled. On the river I said something like "I'll be nice and just call" her $30 river bet. I throw in a chip and flip over the nuts. She seemed in shocked and showed Ac and you can tell it was genuine she misread her hand thinking she had ace of spades. I give her $30 back and she gives it back to me and said its her own mistake. Seemed like the right thing to do in this circumstance. Table thought I was "crazy" giving someone $30 back for a honest mistake. Speaks to the mindset of Vegas players caring so much about $30.
Story #2 pisses me off and honestly the dealer should not be dealing any more. Its a $1/$3 game against the lady who had quads and her BF in seat 2. Both of them are lifting their cards off the table to see what they have. They are not used to "peaking" at their cards and protecting them from players next to them. Who knows how much their neighbors made off them from seeing their hands. Players are just shady and they were not saying nothing about protecting their hands. Hero in seat 8, ask the dealer (I should of got his name) to tell seat 2 to keep his cards down because I can see them every time he folds and some times when he picks up his cards and flips them around. The dealer responds "I know, best to take advantage!" Seriously wtf is this dealer even doing? Dealers are supposed to protect recreational players at least at the lowest stakes. I did end up telling seat 2 myself that I can see his cards from across the table. He said "you can? thank you." This should have been the dealers job.
I lost a ton of respect for dealers and players this trip in Vegas. Doesn't seem like people have any morals and only care about the money. I'll still be going back plenty of more times, but I'll be more quiet and less likely to tip certain dealers that seem shady.
Not quite Easter yet, but won't post for a week or so.
April 15, 2022 | 10:14 p.m.
Well, I'm not looking for the perfect play but for a model that is right most of the times
You already know this, but you're not supposed to be right most of the time, not when bluff catching at least. If someone bets 50% of the pot they only need to be bluffing 33% of the time, if someone bets 66% of the pot they only need to bluffing 40% of the time, and if they bet 75% of the pot they only need to be bluffing 42% of the time.
Also what I noticed is most people just don't share the "run bad" because they feel dumb or embarrassed. You see people post tourney wins and big cashes etc, but how often do you see people post they have lost 30 straight tourneys? Or have had 10 straight losing cash sessions? People just don't post these things. You are not alone when feeling dumb or having mental leaks, its just that you are open about it. I will say taking this step opens up a few doors people will start to share with you personally how they handle situations like yours. I posted a couple of negative things in my journal which people didn't seem to like, in terms of coolers KK vs AA 3x in a day or losing KK vs AK 3 more times in the same day etc. Definitely not easy to deal with. Some times I listen to this youtube mix about imagine if you were blind to results. If you don't know the results will you have the same type of emotions? Then Part 2 tells a good story about being blind or being blind folded to the results. I would listen to these over and over again until they stick with you for your mental game.
April 15, 2022 | 9:40 p.m.
Patrick Sekinger do you have any heuristics for 3BP on what hands to call down with? I'm grossly over folding TX on the turn in this hand. When I plug this hand into wizard in a squeeze pot A10s pure calls down and K10s starts to fold. If its a non squeeze pot, so BB range more polar then A10s is folding 1/3 of the time on the river, but flop and turn pure call down. Bluffs coming from AK, A5s, & A4s from the BB where the wheel aces lower frequency. Given so few bluffs in range, I have an extremely hard time calling down here other than for redline purposes. Can you explain this spot to me a bit more?
edit: hand starts around 30:30 mark. Hero HJ 2.5, SB flats, BB sqz 12bb. Then goes 50-55-40% all in effective.