31:40 T#4 KJo on A42r 3BP btn vs BB seems really out of line. Are you trying to deny equity to all the SCs and other suited broadways that 3bet preflop? 33, 55, 65s, 54s, A3s, A5s, AQ\AJ make some sense to raise, usually I won't raise this board at all though. Curious about the thought process on this hand and also I hope you PIO more of your big pots from this series. Happy part 2 and 3 go better for you.
Oct. 27, 2021 | 4:54 p.m.
545 QJh I think close to pure check on the flop without the bdsd? Where QTs Q9s starts to bet more often. Also a board where I think SB vs BTN does a lot of checking 763r?
3 handed opening btn min and HU 2.5 is this due to facing more 3 bets?
21:00 T#2 54c 3bet SB vs LJ? Thought these SCs were a pure fold but looks like 10-15% 3bet frequency?
When shot taking do you ever try and avoid some of these lower frequency plays? I would play more small ball due to shot taking with the 5-10 buy-in shot. Congrats on being able to shot take though. Many of us are still dreaming of shot taking 500z. You seem to move up rather quickly.
Oct. 27, 2021 | 4:18 p.m.
How do you rate these plays AA vs AQ on the 6444Q and KT on the KQTdd-8d-8x? Seem a bit fancy where AA misses out on stacking QQ-TT on some run outs where A or K hits, similar logic to why KK shouldn't flat the 4bet preflop? Then the KT... idk if you are value betting or bluffing for 1.7x pot. Wizard is actually mixing some folds on the turn vs the small bet, but I used a 1/3 instead of 30%, but close enough. River it's playing a pure check back, so I'm really trying to figure out what you are trying to accomplish on this river, looks like a bluff in hindsight, but I think you are sick enough to go for thin value LOL if it's the same ATo guy in the other hand. I guess worse never calls, so it has to be a bluff, but you do get plenty of better hands like KQ, J9o, & AJ to fold. Just get called by flushes, which honestly I don't think all flushes should be calling here in practice.
I have a feeling we run about the same, so I expect a winning session tonight after you had a winning session LOL.
Oct. 27, 2021 | 1:40 a.m.
Jarret talked briefly about this in one of his videos. When someone makes a small 4bet, the other player has more incentive to flat rather than 5 bet jam. The 5 bet jam makes the other persons life easy having to call off 77bb to win 200bb. Where vs bigger 4 bets the other player just ends up jamming more often with KK and AK. I see this a ton in low stakes. 5 bet ranges are so narrow they choose not to 5 bet anything and just play postflop with a 1.5 spr.
But disgusting run out for sure. Not sure how he doesn't ship the turn for a min raise. With that said my win rate with AK has improved as I started 4 bet jamming like 25% of the time rather than only using a normal 4 bet size. Against some squeezes have been getting snapped more vs QQ-99 region which is nice when I KK and QQ in there are some frequency.
If it makes you feel better im losing $ with KK my last 15k hands LOL. Sample only 72. Winning the other stuff AK AA QQ JJ though. Variance is just a bitch. How many hands have you played this year total?
Oct. 26, 2021 | 10:53 a.m.
Im happy to see Im not the only person who wants your videos weekly. Maybe RIO can increase your contract to every Sunday or every Other Sunday at the very least. I pick Sunday because usually its a day people take off and just relax and as you said appreciate the beauty around them.
Oct. 26, 2021 | 10:38 a.m.
I will see if I am able to follow my own advice this week. Did a hard reset last night, after waking up the last few days 1pm and as late as 5pm! I forced myself to sleep between 1:30am - 2am last night and woke back up at 6:30am. Going to mechanic now to try and get O2 sensor fixed, which is going to cost me a few hundred, but already got the gym out of the way as well as some sports stuff that I manage. Hoping to have everything in terms of studying, workout, and errands done before 2pm. Then I am turning off all discord, whatsapp, studying etc, anything that would distract me from actually grinding between the hours of 2pm - 10pm. Will have breaks, lunch, & dinner mixed in there as well, but I think those are the prime grinding hours where my brain is highly focused, then have 2hrs or so after to relax before bed. Then it's just a matter of rinse and repeat and be content with the hours I am working. I will check results, but not really worried about it. I mostly want to see where I am at after another 100k hands (about 3 weeks). Being HIGHLY FOCUSED and eliminate distractions is the key to success I believe.
I don't remember the exact words or story but there was a pilot talking to Warren Buffet about possibly buying a new plane in the next 5 years. Warren told him if you are still working for me in 5 years I have failed you as a boss. He asked him what he wanted out of life and told him to write down 20 things he wishes to achieve. Pilot makes his list and comes back. Warren ask him how he is going to manage his time with these 20 things. Pilot breaks down the top 5 things he we will on 4hrs a day after work and before bed. The next 15 things he said he will work on monthly or weekly for an hour or so at a time, mostly on weekends when he doesn't have work. Warren told him he is doing it all wrong. Just focus on the top 3 things on your list and the rest of the list you shouldn't spend any time on at all.
I think this is true for most of us, we are so spread out we accomplish half of a lot of things, but never fully accomplished our entire goal. We start a poker course or book, we get half way into it, then we end up jumping into something else. We need to be highly focused on that one course and put 100% of our effort into it, other wise we won't actually achieve what we started out searching for.
Anyways busy day for me, time management is key! Good luck off the tables to you. Hope your diet and therapy help with your life struggles.
Oct. 25, 2021 | 2:47 p.m.
Do you have an example of what you are struggling with?
Fear, in everything, also in RL, just couple of examples
1) I always expect anything bad to happen and I won't be able to recover.
2) Good moments are temporary while bad moments last forever.
3) Fear that I'm not going to fulfill my potential
For #1 a quick google search on how to stop seeing negative. In my opinion you are not giving yourself enough credit. You have a very difficult life but have had success in poker. When you look at poker players only top 10% or so win money. Of those 10% like 10% of those have a positive redline? Should be proud of the small accomplishments you achieve.
#2 I would say in general social media type platforms make life out to be exciting and fun and full of joy. In real life these moments don't happen very often. You sleep 56 hrs a week, you spend 14 hours eating each week, Probably spend 20hrs watching tv?, Maybe exercise 2hrs a week, play poker 20hrs a week?, There is not a lot of excitement in life with traveling, time with friends and family, parties etc. I think you just have to be realistic about good moments only being 1% or so of your life or anyone's life really. For the bad moments just focus on what you can control and learn to forgive yourself. Treat it as a learning experience and move forward.
#3 Goggins would say no one fulfills their potential or really gives a 100% effort in trying to fulfull their potential. His 40% rule is where when people reach 40% of their potential they tend to quit. Humans can do incredible things but you have to conquer your mind and be some what of an extremist in order to do it. Have you written down where you think your potential is? Set goals yearly, monthly, and weekly to achieve your potential? Most people in terms of poker want to play high stakes, but 99% of people just login and play and don't actually make a plan, a detailed plan, on how and when they are going to move up. Need to make a syllabus of what you are going to study and treat it like a college course. Write down your bankroll management, write down your strategy and ranges etc. Each month evaluate your progress in order to achieve this. These negative emotions are usually from dwelling on something you want in life, but not putting a plan in place in order to execute the happiness you are seeking.
Off topic have you told your parents you forgive them? Even if you don't actually mean it, maybe just say it and see where the conversation goes. It might take a small chip off your shoulder and relief some stress in your life. Just ask them questions on why they did certain things. Usually these deep rooted family issues have a long lasting impact on your future. I am not one to forgive certain things, but I do hold myself accountable for my own actions and accept responsibility for my choices and where I end up in life. When people say they are trying their best ask yourself if your raising 4 kids as a single mom, working 2 full time jobs, and giving money to your family. Some of these "Mexican moms" even though they have very little in life are the ones that are really trying their best. When you go to bed at midnight and wake up at 4am every day, then you are trying your best. I shouldn't ever complain about my life because I am no where near even 40% of my potential. You really need to seek out pain in life in order to succeed. There is no growth without pain, so the suffering you endure, not necessarily physical pain, but its just you growing as a person. Just try and make yourself completely exhausted by the end of the day and then realize you achieved only 40% of your potential.
Oct. 24, 2021 | 11:38 p.m.
30min T#3 with QdJs CO vs BB on the KT5dd-8s vs half pot turn any merit peeling the turn and then donk betting any spade, diamond, A or 9 river? Also being 143bb effective on the turn, I don't think I find any folds with a OE here vs a player you have tagged as a fish?
30min T#2 btn raise, hero TT SB 3bet, BB cold 4. Hero calls. Any thoughts on XRAI on the flop Q98cc with TcTd? I know you considered folding preflop, I think TT can jam this formation as well preflop? XRAI is not a thing on wizard, I thought it would be at some frequency given the # of AK combos you deny equity to. Also as played 10% value bet on the river is a nice line Wizard uses. I imagine people with AK just flipping you off LOL
30:45 T#1 with AQh I double checked to make sure the AQh AKh are in fact check calling this Jh 6h 3c board. Can you explain why they XC instead of bet + 3bet? I tend to be aggro with these combos and just put pressure on TT-77 region or just deny equity against hands like KcTc? Not sure how to phrase my question... What is the theory behind XC NFD here?
Thanks for making a 2nd part. I do enjoy the live play sessions with PIO at the end of them.
Oct. 24, 2021 | 8:17 a.m.
27:30 HJ vs Hero BU AhQx on the QJ3r-5hh board you said you expect to see mostly a small turn bet. How come? I thought the two broadway with a turn being a brick in SRP was mostly Overbet... Your instincts were right AhQx or all AQ for that matter is checking back this river. I thought it would be closer to a pure bet with a heart. Can you explain why KQ is betting but not AQ?
Oct. 24, 2021 | 7:37 a.m.
Bluffing blocking NF and 2 pair combos. The reason I started to dislike this spot was because person cold called the 3 bet preflop from the SB. These types of players tend to have a decently strong range and are not players who make big lay downs. Curious of your thoughts though. Realized after I almost only 3-4 combos of flushes in my range here as the 3 bettor in this formation with the Ah and Qh on the board.
Oct. 24, 2021 | 12:44 a.m.
on Friday i got up at a decent time (just after 12pm) and managed to have the most productive day that i have had in weeks!
Write down what you want to do the next day the night before. Prioritize your list and you should feel good about what you accomplish each day.
the guy just snapped me off with top pair anyways :D so i guess either he knows that i will find bluffs here, or he just looks down at top pair and doesn't want to fold.
100% the latter! I Often feel dumb about my triple barrels when they get snapped and people don't even think about folding top pair. Actually have a hand I want your opinion on, at first I liked my play but after analyzing it a bit further I started to dislike it.
Oct. 24, 2021 | 12:40 a.m.
I would agree with JT if the turn bet was bigger, but the 1/3 turn bet doesn't scream polarize to me and thus I expect BB to continue pretty wide. I do agree with some spots having to fold 100% of your range, just going to agree to disagree that this is one of them.
The Q2 hand, I agreed with your logic in game, but it was a "mistake" I was making in some of my review videos that Tyler and Steve Pointed out. So I stopped turning bottom pair into bluffs. I think it can still be an exploit, but I'm trying to remove it from my game. Chalking it up as force aggression.
Oct. 23, 2021 | 12:52 a.m.
Never cold called myself, but I do think if someone studies it, then it's fine to have as part of your range. It's just severely unstudied because of the multiway nature it creates. When you think about it, cold 4 bet AKo is more or less a bluff because players are just folding AQ to the cold 4 bet. Keeping some QQ JJ AK in your cold call range seems reasonable to me and pots play more honest MW as well. Also say you cold call 8bb (2.5 open, 8bb 3bet, hero cold calls (QQ-TT, AKo, AQs, KQs, etc) initial raiser calls. SPR is still around 4 and it's not like they can just go crazy post flop against this range because you are "capped." Plenty of strong hands in your range. Then if initial raiser 4bets you have an easy back raise QQ and AK and just fold the other stuff. That is how I see it at least. Maybe cold call 15%? I know in live poker players flat KK here all day because they don't want to 4 bet and look strong because they don't balance their 3bet and 4 bet range with bluffs, so they end up just cold calling everything. Whether it's right or wrong Idk... but seems to work and players continue to stack off QQ-TT on low flops. Hope this helps. If you discover anything please share.
Oct. 23, 2021 | 12:39 a.m.
Nice chip porn!
I guess the live arena is a hole other world...as you said,if you are not getting the folds,the strategy should shift
When i used to grind live,i think i was loosing money with ak due to people not stacking off or not 4b jamming one single bluff...ofc it could be variance but against that asian guy i wouldnt 3b a sc but an unbalanced value range
Live poker is still this way. 3bets are generally JJ+ and half of the AK combos. Even JJ is questionable to them. I should really treat 4bets like LJ vs blind scenario. On one side i'm not getting folds, on the other side i don't want to play a five way pot. Just need to keep 3 betting merged and embrace the variance with 3x-4x size 3bet preflop and cbet 1/3 and just evaluate turn and river. Once they call they generally are not folding. So just have to be super polar on turn and river with value. Also they fucking donk bet like crazy makes no sense at all. Bay101 $2-$3-$5 game honestly plays more like 10NL online. The players who are viewed as "good players" are just donkeys honestly. Guarantee they won't beat 10NL online. Anyways I should respect my customers.... so I'll stop there. I think I just need to widen my 3 betting range. Hands like KJo QJo ATo etc go up in value when they are opening KTo and calling 3 bets with them. Can probably 3 bet 15% of hands vs all positions and do fine. I'm kind of curious how small 3bets would do... if they open $20, what happens if I just go to $50? keep SPR more normal similar to online. Seems like $50 and $60 have same fold equity anyways. I'll do some studying before my next trip. After Thanksgiving I'll be back in Cali grinding again. Not sure for how long though. Also for thanksgiving i'll be in Vegas having dinner at GF's cousins. So if I'm there for 2-3 days I'll go play at the bellagio. I really want to grind live poker every weekend if possible! But Also want to try and play like 500k hands online for the micro stakes to figure out my hourly before moving back up to 200NL again. Just need some consistency in my live before climbing the stakes again. Maybe a financial advisor.... ok done ranting. Thanks for the comment!
Oct. 23, 2021 | 12:32 a.m.
HeavyMask Mental game will always be a problem for everyone. I paid $999 for Eliot's A-Game master class. I have been through it a couple of times now and each time I get slightly better with my mental game, but it's never fully 100%. If you watch high stakes you will see a lot of pain on people's faces that despite paying Eliot $15,000+ for sessions they still struggle with their mental game. Goggins would say "stop being a bitch and man the fuck up" not that we are bitches LOL but the point being everyone has problems, it's how you deal with them that will make or break you.
Do you have an example of what you are struggling with? Your graphs are solid, so when you look at 100k hand samples and you see that you are winning, that is all you can do in the poker world. Not sure what else you are looking for. Everything else short term is just variance. I think it was in Saulo's video but also in Jarreds book TMGP1 where he says, "If the weather man says its going to rain and you go outside and it's raining do you get mad?" Point being always expect variance in poker, that is just the career path we chose. I know Demondoink talks a bit about it in his journal as well. Taking 10 buy-in swings constantly with his style. Mental game is always why I'm stuck on low stakes. I give 200NL players a lot of credit for being better than me, when in reality a lot of them are not. Don't need to be the best player in the pool to make money. Just play solid poker and eventually the EV from the fish get spread out in the pool. Just have to be good enough to compete against the other regs. Even if they are slightly better.
Look forward to hearing some examples of what you are struggling with. I probably go through the same thing or have gone through it. I know I get into a "FML" type mood from time to time. Mostly when playing 200NL+ but its a combination of a lot of different stressful events are being combined. Losing at poker, lack of sleep, lack of volume, dwelling on mistakes, not saving money, higher rent, not eating healthy, not going to the gym consistently, searching for perfection and trying to be someone I'm not. Have to accept most people dont have the work ethic or intelligence to be the best. Just have to embrace who you are, but always keep trying to do better. I think a lot of the time stress from poker is tied into networth. Lets say I had a million dollars, but I was grinding 50NL. How stress would I be? I think the stress would be gone and it would be easier to focus on long term yearly goal. But tilt would still be there from making mistakes. Also people think because you are rich you should play higher stakes. Honestly if I was not beating 50NL+ for 5bb+ doesn't matter how much money I had, I would want to beat every level I play for at least 5bb+ before moving up and just treating it as a game.
Bit of a rant and probably didn't answer any of your questions LOL. Just say what your struggling with and I'll see if I can relate to it or not. Sleep is usually my best friend when losing btw. I can sleep 8hrs. Have a terrible fucking session and lose $1200 on 200NL (6 buy-in) and go back to sleep 4hrs later. Wake up and feel like grinding again as a fresh start. Losing takes so much mental energy.
Oct. 23, 2021 | 12:23 a.m.
4:20 Q2c T#2 is too good of a hand to turn into a bluff on the 8752r board BvB after using a big bet on the flop.
35:45 seems like an over fold spot. The logic makes sense, but given the small turn bet there is still enough KJs KTs QJs QTs AJs A10 in villains range that can shove here. On wizard J10s is just shoving itself, but as played it's never folding. Villain's range can't just be boats here. I also expect some AK KK QQ to 3bet flop or raise turn at some frequency. Then preflop if you are 4 betting a lot of AK AQ QQ+ hands.... J10s is really high up in your range to just be folding this river AKQ-4-K
Oct. 22, 2021 | 3:34 p.m.
Thanks! I will try and be more active. I did notice a pattern, a lot of my "complaining" in some spots is just due to lack of volume. I end up dwelling on my losses from a certain stake say 200NL because I haven't played enough to over come the short term variance. Volume tends to cure a lot of these spots where I lose confidence. Just need to build a giant sample and realize 100k hands over your career is just a drop in the hat.
Oct. 22, 2021 | 11:11 a.m.
At Bay the max buy-in is $800, so I tried to take it day by day where my losing days were roughly -1.5x buy, -1.5x buy-in, -3.7 buy-in. Which is all super standard variance. Then I also watch Hustler Casino or LATB when Garret & Andy are grinding and always ask myself if I can't handle these $5k swings how am I ever supposed to be able to play higher stakes? Another one of my friends used to play really high stakes PLO back in the day, I won't mention his name on here, but he did play some against Galfond to give you perspective. He has always told me not to adjust my strategy on anything less than 20 buy-in swing. Unless I lose $10,000-$16,000 in this game just keep grinding my usual strategy and only adjust based on things I learn a long the way.
I filtered my excel sheet for my live sessions. When you look at the bigger picture $5k is only going to be a small mark on your overall graph. Also have to look at things where when I was up $3600 and then lost roughly $5k after, only down 2 buy-ins roughly at that point in time. Then 80 hr week is only 2000-2400 hands, which online players will laugh at you if you complain about variance over that tiny of a sample.
Like many other players, my "tilt" doesn't really come from money, but from making mistakes. I think Jarred talks about it in his book as well for "mistake tilt." There are lot of spots where my read is I'm beat, solver mixes call / fold, I really don't want to call, then all of a sudden I see pot being shipped the other way. It's like my brain says fold and my hands end up calling. This could be a very small pot as well that makes me upset. Even on winning sessions, I'm very critical on myself for making mistakes. After all it's a game of mistakes and whoever makes the least amount of mistakes tends to make the most money. If I managed to fold AKo preflop or TT to some giant 3bets I would of had a really nice week actually. Roughly $4k out of the 5k is coming from getting all in with AK preflop. Also ask yourself how does complaining about it change the result?
Things to think of for your mental game when playing. Types of tilt. Best to recognize the type of tilt you are experiencing and then interject logic to see if the tilt makes sense once you analyze it.
Oct. 22, 2021 | 11:08 a.m.
On Jurojin they have autotop up feature FYi.
On the button I noticed a couple of spots where you used 2bb opens with J5s and 87o and then 3x with AJo / T5s. Is this part of an exploit or just getting used to 3x button still? If pool is opening mostly 3x on the button with their 40% or so range would you still recommend defending roughly the same range you would against 2.5x? Just fold some of the mixed stuff and continue vs 3x with the pure call region?
28:30 T#1 BvB on the river with Ad9c how often do you recommend thin value bet in this spot? I tend to value own myself quite a bit here. You defend BvB, then call 50% pot - 50% pot - and face a river check on the Q92ss-8dd-Qd board. In Villain's shoes given you stated he is not supposed to have worse, but not supposed to have better, on the river would you just use a 2/3 size in his spot and fold to a raise?
Min raise your way to prosperity & I don't see a set so I'll check
Oct. 22, 2021 | 10:33 a.m.
33:28 you fold JJ. Is QQ a 4bet fold?
If HJ opens, btn CC, SB squeeze, now JJ seems to be more playable mixing in cold call or cold 4bet around 45% total. Probably still a fold against this pool though given 0 EV.
JJ starting to look more playable once it's a CO open and SB squeeze before you get to cold 4bet.
Oct. 22, 2021 | 10:18 a.m.
Back from my live poker trip. Didn't go as well as I thought it would, ended up playing 80 hours on the week over 6 sessions. Week started off off well the first two sessions won $600 and $3k, then followed it up with 3 straight losing sessions of -1100, -1200, -3k. Then before picking up my GF from the airport, decided to play a little bit since its close by, made around $500 back, but overall still down around $1300 on the trip. Hopefully it was a learning experience as I was able to fix a pretty big leak for next time in this pot odds vs reverse implied odd spot.
UTG ($600) limps $5, btn ($450) raises to $20, hero BB AdJd 3bet to $75, UTG 4bet to $200. BTN calls the $200, & at the time I felt priced in for $125 to win $600. Was planning on folding to UTG but when BTN cold called the 4bet I'm a sucker for getting a price. Ended up tagging a long, and flopping a flush draw that bricked out. This spot came up 2-3x at least on the trip, which had I just folded preflop would of only lost $75 on the hand instead of $600. Maybe a good thing I lost the hand, so my bad play doesn't get rewarded and reinforce a bad habit.
I am really questioning in these soft live games if 3 betting is really the way to go. I made some light 3 bets against players that were opening too much, for example HJ opens $20, hero 3bet KJo in the CO and SB cold calls with KTo... If I am not getting the folds preflop, is there really a point in 3betting all the time? Even with my default range of 99+ AQ+ and suited broadways, just seems to add a lot more variance to the game. There was an older Asian guy there who was playing 75% of hands, but just limping to see the flops. Played with him 3 days in a row and he always had a big stack, which he seemed to play a 75/10/3 type style. Debating pushing these preflop edges or just relying on implied odds rather than creating lower SPR pots.
Castle I built on my 2nd day there. Was up $4500 at one point that session but started to run bad at the end with AKo vs AA BvB for $700 and then a couple of $100-$200 losses and called it quits after. I seemed to have AK vs KK+ 4x during my trip which is a lot considering only 25-30 hands an hour. That I ran pretty bad in a lot of spots.
Back to grinding online, which Steve Paul was a big help a long with my friend Mike who went over a live session recording I had. Just continue to plug leaks until my strategy is solid. Feel stuck on low stakes for eternity, but honestly if I'm able to beat 200NL online consistent I would be pretty happy and then play live poker on the side, just been playing so long, I feel dumb that I haven't' figured it out yet. Will just be grinding and watching RIO videos rest of the month. Will update after I do another 50k hands or so.