Hi Ryan, have been enjoying your series, keep it up!
When your going over the min equity needed for the player facing the 3!, you seemed to imply (correct me if I am wrong) how the equity realization (Er) is close to 100% or maybe in the 90-100% range. However, to me this seems higher than reality. For instance the Q8c/Q6c/etc hands you put in EqLab was getting something like ~34% +/- 1% equity vs. your 3! example range.
But there are so many boards were we must just give up on flop (A52, K55, AK7, no clubs, etc, etc). So if we assume something like 75% Er then Q8c becomes ~25.5%, which no longer makes it a slam dunk call.
Also, how does the calling range change in higher SPR situations, which are more common in MTTs. Specifically in spots were SPR is 1 or less on flop. Feel like we have even lower Er and get in stickier spots (i.e. we have Q8c on A82 flop and face PSB shove).
Thanks for any feedback!
Dec. 27, 2018 | 3:59 p.m.
BN: $23.90 (Hero)
Sept. 14, 2018 | 12:18 a.m.
Sorry. 24/18. 85 hands worth. Total AFq (15/30) = 50
Sept. 9, 2018 | 1:52 p.m.
Honestly, there isn't a ton of 3bet'ing in these games and I don't often do it w/ a lite range bc to often there are multiway pots. I chose this V bc he had more reasonable 'thinking' type player HUD stats then I am accustomed to seeing.
ilprincipedario: I though some % of AK/AQ calling and all mid pair hands. Was willing to barrel on good turns for me.
James: What flop sizing do you believe is better? I'd prob check back strong Ace's here and betting most other part of my ranges. But I 3bet more of a linear range for reasons above and I honestly don't do it often.
Sept. 9, 2018 | 1:49 p.m.
SB: $61.95 (Hero)
Sept. 8, 2018 | 1:47 p.m.
CO: $25.43 (Hero)
Sept. 8, 2018 | 1:42 p.m.
Hey Jeremy. Been really liking your videos, keep it up! On the T6 bust hand. Do you feel based off your comments about pp generally playing tighter, not getting out of line later in these tournies that some of those Pio opponent combos shouldn't be counted as legitimate shove hands?
For instance, Pio has V shoving T5, T6. Given non out of line oppenents, why wouldn't V just call river with good show down value? What is V getting Hero off?
Also, 64 and 54 doesn't make a lot of sense either since V likely isn't checking turn with these combos and if so, again, why not calling river?
Listing hands like I am is probably a waste since I guess the point I am making, is why are we accepting this GTO output as correct, when it is unlikely this player at ACR is pushing with so many bluff combos here? AKA, not playing GTO.
Aug. 9, 2018 | 2:06 a.m.
BTN: 30.96 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB: 28.5 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 24.76 BB (VPIP: 72.73, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (UTG): 35.6 BB
MP: 27.5 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 32.68 BB (VPIP: 41.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh Ass
Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB
Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3c 3h 8cc
BB bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB
Turn : (7.5 BB, 2 players) Add
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 4 BB
River : (23.5 BB, 2 players) Kdd
BB bets 13.26 BB
Given my price and the missed flushes and potential for this player to be betting Ax for value given his HUD stats, in a cash game, I'd fairly easily call this given the price I'm getting. But since this is a double or nothing 6max, this would cost me half my stack and given his calling range preflop from BB is close to 100% he has a lot of 3x's. Should we be folding this?