Seed2Shade's avatar


273 points

Interesting point Butcher. Thanks for comment.

So in the reg pool I looked at the top 2 dozen players. +4.5 bb/100 EV. Now when I filter for no fish, -2.0 bb/100 EV.

So a Reg would need to be convincingly better (+2 bb/100) then other regs at a full reg table just to breakeven (rake is harsh). It is actually probably higher then this since I'm looking at the top regs v all regs instead of reg v reg.

Given my above analysis of a reg heavy pool in Blitz, I truly wonder how the pool can sustain more then a few authentic, honest winners? It seems mathematically improbable assuming no RTA or the like.

Furthermore. I see that all regs earn +0.7 bb/100, while all fish are -23.0 bb/100. The weight is 75/25 reg/fish in terms of sample size (makes sense since more regs). This math comes out to -6 bb/100. Thus, the entire pool is losing -6 bb/100. Since this is a zero sum game, we can assume this is the rake hurdle for 200NL (ACR fairly similar to most). Ouch!

June 22, 2022 | 10:45 p.m.

Wow nice work! I did have a couple ~30k runs of high single digit bb/100 win rates, so would be interesting what your rate looks like around 100-150k sample. Post back if you don't mind then!

April 12, 2022 | 12:11 a.m.

Yea agree. It's not like pool is saturated with crushers, more like lots of ok regs fighting over very few fish.

Can't understand how anyone could be a volume player. Sounds like a awful life. Only marginally improving poker skill, just clicking the bet/call/raise/check/fold as fast as you can 10-12 hours a day with dozens of tables. IMO...

Also, not to be this person, but given the super long time bank ACR gives you (that can be easily reset if you like) wonder how much RTA in this pool. Again, not blaming my non +bb/100 on this but I've put in a decent volume and there's a few players that every time I review their hands they play perfecting parallel to the sim.

Other pools I've played in time bank get drained quickly after first use.

April 5, 2022 | 10:30 p.m.

I don't have access to zoom, but based off videos pool doesn't seem that much different.

Yes! Maybe I should.

April 5, 2022 | 10:30 p.m.

Like anyone else that attempts to climb a high mountain...a challenge.

April 2, 2022 | 12:39 p.m.

This is a game I've been working to beat over the last year or so. First half I was clearly a bad reg. Took a few months off, regrouped and over 2nd half I've worked to close to a breakeven player (I know great accomplishment ha…eyeroll). Been a struggle to break through to profitable reg.

I have a large sample on 200NL 6max reg tables and it shows only about 1.5%-3.0% of regs are winning depending how strict we get with statistically significance. My database size on 200NL Blitz isn't large enough yet to draw inference.

The reg/rec ratio at 200NL Blitz is maybe one of the highest vs any other 200NL format/site. Most nights its many average regs (good players, but not elite), a handful of reg fish, maybe 3-4 top notch players, and a true rec or 2 that sometimes doesn't even last the night.

The coaches here never play this format or at least don't film it. I truly wonder with such a tough pool, how many are actually winning for statistical significance? If only a fraction are winning at a easier format (reg tables), it may imply literally only a handful of legit winners (pre rakeback, promo's, etc).

Would love if anyone plays this game to share your thoughts and/or if your beating for statistical significant if you could share that as well. I’m trying to gauge what kind of mountain I am climbing here.

March 30, 2022 | 5:28 p.m.

Hey Hunter. Would love to see a straddle dedicated video. Thanks!

Feb. 23, 2022 | 2:08 p.m.

Merry Xmas Gary! Hope you have a great holiday.

Dec. 23, 2021 | 11:02 p.m.

jungleman you realize you were reviewing Tom Dwan's footage? Now he's ready to resume the match with this prepared.

Sept. 20, 2021 | 9:32 p.m.

O just confused because I thought we were discussing SBvsBB. OP3bet is a different animal.

Aug. 13, 2021 | 6:14 p.m.

Haha no problem. I guess I'm just saying not understanding how OP can polarize for large on low card boards SBvsBB (with expectations) specifically the 764 you referenced. In general, IP will have more draws and slight nut advantage (though not always true).

Aug. 13, 2021 | 4:21 p.m.

Some funny ones in this one (#52s) :)

Nice vid Gary

Aug. 12, 2021 | 10:31 p.m.

Thanks for the response.

Totally understand the AKx boards. Makes sense. But the low card ones and specifically the one you referenced not understanding how OP can bet large/polarized when the overpairs edge is whittled down so much given IP wonderful connection with this board?

Aug. 12, 2021 | 9:54 p.m.

Hey Luke. @42.30 you mentioned that it doesn't make sense to de-polarize vs a range that checks a lot. I get it on these low paired boards, but does it not make sense to quasi de-polarize for block sizing often on low card boards IP SBvsBB? Meaning, since OP checks these boards often we can benefit by blocking and getting random air to fold but also our mediocre 1 pairs can extra value from stronger overcards and weaker pairs.

When I look over all low card flops (~250 flops) SRP SBvsBB, OP checks nearly 3/4 of the time and IP response is predominantly block betting around 60% of range.

Aug. 10, 2021 | 4:40 p.m.

This Pinnock guy is a classic con artist of sorts. Agree with Tyler's advice.

"Thomas Pinnock is a math whiz and Upswing member turned GTO wizard. "

Check out his patented "Pinnock's Razor" theorem:

Aug. 6, 2021 | 3:55 p.m.

Great 1st vid Max. Welcome aboard!

July 31, 2021 | 12:21 p.m.

Thanks for the vid as always Luke. What where these ranges based off of in terms of sizing? Meaning are these BTN raise 2x, BB 3bet 5x or BTN raise 2.5x, BB 4.25x, etc, etc.

July 19, 2021 | 11:12 p.m.

I did give large raise sizing. This was a while ago so don't fully remember but I think I made it equilivant to 133% cbet sizing if checked too.

July 6, 2021 | 10:06 p.m.

Yes ctrlplay.

Tyler. I guess I was asking would you play a strategy against pool of x/r small freq of Kx? Obv it has Pio approval but just wondering how it works in the real battlefield. It seems to be propelled by IP calling mix frequencies of weaker Kx and under pairs through river otherwise not a viable strategy.

July 2, 2021 | 6:54 p.m.


Hey Tyler. Top notch material as always. :) You discussed OP lack of strong value on this board texture which is of course right but what do you think about solvers strategy of having small frequencies of TP for x/r value? A suggestion often used in SRP, can be tricky to play on certain run outs.

July 1, 2021 | 10:45 p.m.

Hey Gary. Thanks for the video. Always enjoy the 10,000ft view comments (RNG, playing recs, preflop sizings, etc). Find a lot of value in them. Have a good one.

June 18, 2021 | 1:33 p.m.

Haha, just referring to the 10% donk sizing. I'm more a low stakes donk :)

I get that. I'm saying this small donk sizing on the turn is prevalent even in non-paired situations and many more than one would think. For instance, look up Ks7d2c3c. Solver chooses the micro donk 50% of range post a block on flop from IP. I went off and tried many others boards and it is used very often. I have IP with many raise sizings too. It's odd. I guess OP is just so condensed while IP has much more air and OP doesn't get punished from IP nut advantage since its such a small lead. Idk.

May 16, 2021 | 11:59 a.m.

I've jumped off into a micro donk deep dive for all flops. Solver loves using this sizing in SRP very very often. Like a lot. Even when controlling for larger IP raise sizings. On boards most wouldn't think like K723. Lots of blank turn donks. Even when IP bets large on flop. Is this because OP range so condensed while IP has more air? It completely changes sim since when OP checks (if playing micro donk strategy), IP doesn't overbet nearly as much which is another odd conclusion. Do you implement this into your game on this widespread basis or on just more obvious spots like the hand in this video?

May 15, 2021 | 1:23 p.m.

Formats great Luke but honestly most your formats have been great. So I'm indifferent to what type of vids you do. Just keep em coming!

@50m. I get solver suggest micro donk block but what's the point of adding complexing to your game for such a sliver of EV gain? V folds very little to it and raises large (should be) quite often leading to OP having a similar defense then if x and IP cbet large. Also, it’s interesting that if you do a sim with the donk sizing and one with not, IP’s raise donk on former and cbet on latter range are like carbon copies of each other.

May 10, 2021 | 9:18 p.m.

Sorry who's Stefan?

May 6, 2021 | 3:14 p.m.

Hey Tyler. Noticed you used a ~600 combo open for IP. If raising 3.5x shouldn't this be more narrowed? Otherwise IP could get back handed across their face to aggressive 3bets from blinds given risk/reward to do so starts to become mouthwatering.

May 5, 2021 | 11:43 p.m.

I've figured out a shoving over RFI strategy that is very good. Maybe we can exchange strategies??

Haha, jk. Understandable.

May 3, 2021 | 3:10 p.m.

Been enjoying your content Luke, been a great addition to RIO.

My curiosity is too strong. Tell me if I am hot or cold at least!

The min IP 3bet, SB RFI works since opponents just play their charts or don't think about the correct deviation from them coupled with your exclusive study of postflop sims of this scenario gives you additional EV coins allowing you to offset the in a vacuum lost EV from deviating from optimal sizing?

April 28, 2021 | 5:19 p.m.

Why would anyone flat with a set on such a wet, connected board in a 3way? Even if so, shoving turn with set would eliminate rest of these combos.

Yes I can have straights. K9, 89 for sure. Regardless I think pool would check back 2pair and sets on this board at decent clip on river.

Thanks for looking into your database. But I'm assuming you didn't filter for a 3 way with this type of configuration since that sample size would likely be counted on one hand. With a short stack V that can re-open action post a call from OR changes the situation greatly.

April 22, 2021 | 1:41 p.m.

Only 150 hands on V btw. Seemed reggy, not much of a read yet.

April 22, 2021 | 11:45 a.m.

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