Deep stack turn spot hmmm

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Deep stack turn spot hmmm

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) SB: $105.93
BB: $106.98
UTG: $43.00
MP: $245.17 (Hero)
CO: $224.19
BN: $224.96
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is MP with Q A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.19, CO calls $2.19, 2 folds, BB raises to $11.00, Hero calls $8.81, CO calls $8.81
Flop ($33.50) Q 6 6
BB checks, Hero bets $4.77, CO raises to $25.00, BB folds, Hero calls $20.23
Turn ($83.50) Q 6 6 8
Hero checks, CO bets $48.00, Hero raises to $200.00

Preflop The CO cold caller (who I believe was a recreational or one tabling)

IP cold callers HUD. He had 2bet a flop 2/32 opportunities.

Show downs when he 3bet AJo, AQo, JTo, JJ

As preflop raiser he has folding to 0/7 3bets

My assumption of what he is going to show up with here vs the 3bet with the fact that he hasn't folded much to 3bets thus far.

On this board texture, once OOP checks I'm going to be betting ton of hands here for a very small sizing, to define their hands, deny equity, endue spazzes etc. I don't know how good that strategy is but I have been trying it out and it seems to work once checked to in these multiway spots.

So for IP, if what I assumed about his range to get into this spot on the flop is correct, he is going to have 34 combinations of top pair, 13 flushdraws combos, 8 three of a kind combos, and given his passivity I don't think he is going to just spazz out with a random backdoor flushdraw/straight draw hand very often.

On the flop with this sizing I think it is very likely he is going to raise a hand like three of a kind. I also think vs this sizing he is pretty likely to raise Qx at a pretty good frequency. I think he is going to do some calling and a little bit of raising with a flushdraw but he seemed to be passive. Most of my assumption of his range is based on experience, and not based on a ton of information vs this particular player.

On the turn his timing was really fast (which makes me think he is slightly more likely to have 6x, but he also can just use this timing with a flushdraw as well, and also can just bet Qx to protect against 'a flushdraw'. I often see recreational players though doing a lot of checking turns with Qx in this spot. Not sure how applicable it is in this spot, maybe he was more likely to just check Qx here on the turn, especially with his timing, but it's tough to say.

He also really is only representing 65s,76s,A6s, sometimes 86s,46s, 96s which to be honest he might be folding pre based on his stats (maybe not). There are alot more Qx which some of the offsuit QTo might fold preflop or QJo might fold preflop but I don't have enough information to say whether or not those off suit broadways will fold preflop. There are a lot more Qx in his range than anything.

I also don't see a recreational player bet/folding a hand like QJ if they bet the turn here very often, or QT, or KQ. We dominate a lot of hands, He also is likely to bet/call a flushdraw if he happened to bet it on the turn (which i think is a lot less likely than trips of Qx given general fish passivity and their general tendency to over value hands)

Am I just trying to rationalize my plan into a shove? What options do I have on the turn here? Can I just call? If the recreational is making the mistake of bet calling QJo or something of that nature I assume that x/shoving turn is going to be more plus EV.

I really dont know if I'm just being results oritend with this spot, or if it is a spew. I dont know how to play deepstack poker.

All thoughts are appreciated

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