EVs of opening range.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

EVs of opening range.

my pool stats SB vs BB are 30%call, 11% 3-bet and 37% fold to c-bet. 6% raise c-bet. Hence EV raise= (.11)(-3) + (1)(.59) + (.30)EVcall

EVcall = (6)(.37) -(5)(.06) + (.57) EVcontinue = - .93 assuming our worst 2 cards have 0 equity when called which is reasonable OOP.

EV raise = -.019.

We would I think also have to account for the EV of folding at zoom being positive. (Funniliy enough I think if you are losing at more than 1.9BB/100 it is higher EV to raise any 2 cards than to fold always).

Beyond this if we want to profit from any two cards EV continue must be more than -4.9 BB. I'm not really sure how to proceed. If we have 0% equity our EV is -5BB so how much equity do we need for it to be -4.9BB?

Another note is that I would suspect pool is relatively inelastic between 1/4 pot and 1/3 pot although this is speculation. This has also made me realise that there could be an error in my fold to c-bet stat as I believe people bet bigger than 1/3 at my stakes normally and perhaps my tracker is accounting for hands played between 2 villains even on zoom?I personally dont play big bets SB vs BB except on AKx boards. Ok so I think it is clear raising any 2 cards is not profitable. Am still interested in how to solve the question above regarding EV and equity though.

My guess is that (-5)(1 - W) + (5)(W) = -4.9
-5 +W +5W = -4.9
6W =1/10

I think we definitely win by the hand checking down 1/60 th of the time even with our worst 2 cards. Not sure if bets effect this because balance is kind out the window at this point so maybe we don't achieve this against someone who knows are strategy but I think people are overly passive at the micros. So we will auto profit if people are inelastic to flop sizing (not sure about the fold to c-bet stat).
Also EVfold >0 for a winning player so also less clear. Would be interested in any opinions/ corrections.

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