How to handle a min. X-Raise on the turn against a Tight, potentially aggressive player when I always have the odds, but we could be dead? MW | 3Bet Pot | BU VS SB | 10 NL | Ignition
Posted by PoeticEconomist
Posted by
PoeticEconomist
posted in
Low Stakes
How to handle a min. X-Raise on the turn against a Tight, potentially aggressive player when I always have the odds, but we could be dead? MW | 3Bet Pot | BU VS SB | 10 NL | Ignition
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $14.99 (Hero)
SB: $9.90
BB: $9.55
UTG: $85.18
MP: $10.19
CO: $11.21
SB: $9.90
BB: $9.55
UTG: $85.18
MP: $10.19
CO: $11.21
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
J
Q
, , , , ,
65 Hands on SB. VPIP/PFR: 19/16 | 3B: 9.5% | flop c-bet: 67% | Fold c-bet: 0%
Flop
($3.90)
Q
T
7
, , , ,
The BB doesn't c-bet. Keeping in mind I need to have a high threshold for betting for MW pots, and we aren't betting all the time, I think we should bet infrequently and small MW on this somewhat dry flop that favors us.
Turn
($6.34)
Q
T
7
4
, ,
In-game, I really didn't know what to do. The Pot is inflated compared to a SRP, and although I'm getting 15% pot odds, it's also 20 more BBs to call that may not be worth it against value heavy X-Raise range, when the river will infrequently help me.
The hands I have the SB raising with are hands that have me crushed:
Value (15.15%):
7d7s, 7d7c, 7s7c, QhTh, QsTs
Potential Bluffs (84.85%):
K9s, 98s, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh
I think it's possible that SB floated the flop with some draws such as gutshots, but perhaps when we consider that he would have to float to get to this point in the turn, we should consider that he has these bluffs at a much lower frequency -> this is an under bluffed spot.
The pot odds are only 15%, but with an inflated Pot (MW on flop & 3Bet Pot), how should we handle this type of decision when if we call, there is only going to be 34 BBs behind?
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