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HU hand 2: set vs worse river ever

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Posted by posted in High Stakes

HU hand 2: set vs worse river ever

BB: 3151.72
SB: 1000 (Hero)
Preflop (15) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 9
Hero raises to 20, BB calls 10
same vilain as " HU hand 1: KQ on Q43r vs big x/r "

so vilain wanted to HU, he play nl400 & 1k sometimes, not a fish but not a reg, he's too passive, and does weird stuff, like 4bet shove all in 22 at 100bb deep

on HU, he is 72/58, (open 88%, def BB 30% call, 27% 3bet) and quite passive postflop (agg 33/27/20), cbet 50% flop, never saw him bluff river so far on ~150hands (but a played him HU a while ago, so maybe this HH happens after 50 hands today)


this hand happens later, never saw him bluff river, and he his quite passive, especially turn and river
Flop (45) 7 3 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 25.41, BB calls 25.41
Turn (95.82) 7 3 9 T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 70.56, BB calls 70.56
River (236.94) 7 3 9 T 4 (2 Players)
BB bets 180
flop & turn are easy value bet, but WHY DO YOU LEAD RIVER

i think folding here is best because:

1/ he has 86/J8/flushes
2/ he is quite passive
3/ don't think he would bluff x/c flop & turn, leading river
4/ only beat T9 (i block it) 77/33 in his value range

thoughts?

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