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Is this Just an underbluffed spot?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Is this Just an underbluffed spot?

Live 2-5

1 Limp from a recreational player UTG

Hero raise AKo $25 HJ
Folds to limper who calls

Flop 983r
he check, I check

Turn 9

He checks
Pot = $50
I bet 15 as a merge. Basically my impression of pool is they will not really turn stuff into a bluff after checking twice, and likely just lead turn alot, so think there may be alot of stuff like A2, A4o, K4s, QJo, 54s, AJ, AT, A7 etc stuff that will fold to a bet, or maybe cry call one street and check riv. Think there is definitely merit in checking turn as well and may be a better option readless on specific player the more I think about it, because we can likely bluff catch some on river, as well as dominate Ax/Kx hands that may improve on river. Think it's good both ways though, but do lean towards taking the aggressive action, especially if pool will not bluff enough on blank rivers.

He calls the $15

Riv is a 2x
Pot $80

Guy leads $55

My impression in general is this is just not a bluff. It's so enticing to want to call when he leads on a blank like this, but at the same time, I think most bluffs like 67 or JT will naturally lead the turn as a bluff and not wait to check call the turn and then all the sudden lead into me. I think the most likely thing happening here is a 9x that got tricky, or a rivered boat. I just fold. Is this pretty accurate?

Is betting turn too thin? I mean he can def have things like 22-77, which is 30 combos, plus some 8x, so lets say 15 combos, for 45. But also can have things like AT, AJ maybe, A7s, A6s, who knows, AQ sometimes, can still have some gutters like QJ/QT, plus all the random pieces of equity that we can get to fold. Information would give us a better idea, but it seems good in general. Likely a mix. Guess it's very important here to consider the villain. Old man coffee type can prob get away with blocking turn more often, but vs younger/middle aged guys who "play poker", but dont have any theoretical background, might be better to check behind with intention of bluff catching some clean rivers. I dont know, typing it all out, I do like blocking just in general against live pool

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