Hero complete sb ATo
Turn 9 bringing FD pot $12(minus some rake)
Hero leads $6
Bb who is a nitty/very straight forward old Jewish lady I’ve played a lot with raised to $30
2 folds and action to hero
Basically, I’m thinking I should fold here. If I call the raise, the pot is raked $7. So I’m risking $24 to win half of ($5+$6=11/2=$5.5)
Her being on the Bb she has all the Tx as none of the Tx in her range will be raised preflop.
I’m thinking because we are going to face a bet on the river, we need to factor that into our turn price. Against a hand like QT we are going to be putting in the $24 on the turn, and likely a $50+ river bet. That’s like $74*12(QT)= $888 lost vs QT. Against Tx we are only winning half of the $5.5 from the flop, as half the money won on the River came from our stack.
Does my reasoning make sense or am I missing something?