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NL25 thin value shove against regular?

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NL25 thin value shove against regular?

HJ: $25.35 (Hero)
CO: $25
BN: $8.67
SB: $5.65
BB: $52.01
UTG: $25.41
UTG: 21/19 regular, 8% 3bet, AF 4.2, WTSD 26%, cbet flop 75%

CO: 38/15 recreational player, he posted the SB+BB in this hand
Preflop ($0.70) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K J
UTG raises to $1, Hero calls $1, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds
UTG is probably infinite wide because of the dead money. i think KJo is not a good hand to flat here because it has no playability multiway. i should flat more suited connectors / one gappers and pocket pairs, maybe suited Axs. but i was greedy and wanted to play against the CO.
Flop ($4.35) K K J (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75, CO calls $2.75, SB folds
Turn ($12.60) K K J 7 (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, CO folds, UTG calls $6
the turn sizing is probably to small because the recreational player is calling with any Kx, lots of Jx, flushdraws and flushes. i should make it about 9$.
River ($24.60) K K J 7 A (2 Players)
UTG checks
15.60 $ left to play

do you jam the river here? villain is a somewhat solide regular and my range looks very strong here. i cant really jam flushes for value because he can´t really bluffcatcht with hands like KQ, KT here.

so my value range should consists full houses and he is probably going to call with AK, AA. but i dont know if he check/calls the urn with AA (with Ad he will probably do this) and/or if he leads the river with the nuts.

there are 3 combos AK, 3 combos AA.

is he check/calling the river with 6 worst combos as well? otherwise we can´t jam for value here. JJ (1 combo), AQdd, ATdd, A9dd (3 combos). maybe he calls with 50% of his KQs (2 combos). than this is a breakeven shove. i could discount some AK, AA probably because he would bet AdKc on the turn and/or openjam the river but he could lead the turn with AQdd as well so i it´s hart to define his range exactly.


i think i should jam here because people are still calling too much but it is very very close.

what do you think?

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