OlgaRanz

flop donk looks like an overpair, so i prefer raising the flop. i dont expect him to donk/fold a hand like 66. and i'm never folding the river because he has tons of worse "for value" like JJ-88.

I dont like the river. If we get to the river with AQ, KQ or QQ (or KJhh) we just make a very big value bet and hope that he stationes Tx, flushes, KJs. We cap our range by betting small and he can bluffshove his entire range.

preflop i prefer 3bb. he can flat very wide in this spot and its always hard to play out of position against a wide range with a big SPR.

bet flop, check/call turn, check/decide river (fold on hearts, A, 4, 8)

i check the flop less then once in a million years against a weak player. he got a million of weak pair/pair+draw/draw hands. turn is a f**k-my-life-call imo.

check/raising the flop might be the most EV line in this spot but thinking about balancing check/raising is a desaster. you dont have A9 in ur range so 99 is the only strong hand in your range on this flop. so if you decide to x/r this hand on the flop, villain can overbet any blank turn cards against your check/calls because your check/call range is capped while his flop betting range includes more strong aces like AA, AK.

I dont see why you dont have any bluffs in your range. Guess you float some hands like KQdd, KQcc, KQhh and bet them when he checks the turn. Since he has some (big) pairs in his range like KK-99, we need to bluff our floats on the river. So since our range is polarized, i prefer a bigger sizing. Or would you think about bluffing KQdd with 12$ ? I'd bet 28$.

44 is a poor flat in the SB against a BTN open, so he reps 66/88 (which is 1 combo each), i dont see him flatting 75s preflop EVER. so he reps 2 combos of value and we need 33% equity which means 1 bluff combo in his range. he doesnt need to bluff the river very often because his value range is so smalk. thats an easy call. we beat hands like 78ss which try to bluff your TT/JJ type hands.

i think this hand would be a lot more interesting if you'd hide your own hand and ask for thr bottom of your calling range. while A8 is a snap i think its worth discussing about what to do with say 99.

i dont like flop and turn sizings, his x/call range is inelastic. he x/calls any Ax and any flushdraw and x/folds a ton of air like random 78s or KQ hands. that being said i'd bet 90% pot on the flop and turn. obvs we get it in against worst Ax with your betsizings as well but he is going to x/fold his busted FDs on the river so bet the hell out of him on the drawing streets to maximize your value against his entire range.

the river is a pretty easy snap fold as played. preventing a recreational player from being able to bluffdonkshove any two cards isnt necessary for obvs reasons.

jam river for value, we block 99, 89s, T9s. he might call QQ, JJ (maybe KK, AA if he flat those hands pre every now and then), he might also call with 67s. there are not many 8x hands in his range since he is folding a ton to 3bets. checking back 2 pair, well i dont know... seems nitty. its nl25, so people might snap there ATs because "lol i haz a pair". 

what about 3bettng preflop against a 50% CO opening range (which is hard to believe to be honest). 

edit: didnt see the sample sorry. 130 hands means about 22 hands in the CO where UTG prolly opens 15% and HJ prolly opens 20% which means there are roughly 15 CO first in spots, so 50% co opening range doesnt say ANYTHING.

I wouldnt be to worried about the flushdraw because i think he cant have to many flushdraw combos. the board blocks AQdd, KQdd, QJdd, QTdd, we block AJdd, TJdd, KJd. he prolly 4bets AKdd preflop, so he ends up with ATdd, KTdd, T9dd and maybe some small Axdd like A7dd, A5dd which basically depends on how which hands he defends against 3bets.

if he defends QJo and 66 he ends up with AQ, KQ, QJ, 88, 66, ATdd, KTdd, T9dd so 31 combos for value. you need 28% on the river if you call which means he should have ~12 bluff combos. Since he stabbs 70% on the flop and has this very high aggression stats I think this could potentially be the case. its still weired because the A on the river isn't a card to barrel with all his bluffs because a lot of bluffs picked up showdownvalue and dont need to bluff anymore as you already mentioned. Since we know that he is capable to bluff with KTo (for no pair no draw no equity on any street) after seeing the showdown I think we can assume that he bluffs to much and we got a profitable call here. but obviously we cant know that in game.

depending on what you think he defends preflop you could discount QJo and 66 which means he just got 22 combos for value and he just needs to bluff ~9 combos to make our call profitable. you might also think that he 4bets some AQ/KQ preflop so he doesnt have all of those combos in his flatting range which reduces his value combos, too.

i think aggainst an aggressive villain its a good calldown but we shouldnt start thinking postflop and think more about his preflop defending range to make our decision easier postflop. otherwise we are basically guessing on the river.


edit: I didnt take into account that we block a lot of his QJ combos sorry

what are your reasons for the flop sizing? i cant believe you ever bluff 5 into 16 multiway. 

against a recreational player i'd play: bet bet shove

he is calling with a lot of worst pocket pairs and flushdraws, obvs he calls all of his Tx as well but since we block AT and the board blocks 50% of hands like JTs, T9s, QTs,... there are a lot more combos of worst pocketpairs and flushdraws then Tx combos.

nice hand imo. he might check/jam with hands like AhKx, AhQx, sometimes KQ for the splitt. and sometimes we just catch a Q or K. i'd bet bigger in the flop btw.

do you jam JTs on the paired board? do you ever check twice with KQ, 99 here? you are not repping anything imo and i'd just check/fold the river. i cant image he is folding AK here because your range looks like JJ, TT which you might check twice.

meh... we need to defend 35,7% of our "x/call flop, x turn, bet river"-range. our value range might consist A3 in spades, A9 in spades, AT in diamonds, 99, 33 (we do not flat A9o, A3o in that spot and all other suited combos are blocked by the board). maybe we got some bluffs in our range like KQdd, QJdd, JTdd, 45dd and some weak value hands like T9cc, T9hh. since i dont know how OP plays his entire range in this spot i end up guessing about this range to be honest.

the above range includes 15 combos and GTO forces us to defend at least 5.35 = 6 combos, so i end up calling A3 in spades, A9 in spades, AT in diamonds and 99 (3 combos).

i dont like check/calling the flop with TT too much but maybe we do it with TdTx. In that case we would have 3 combos of TT on the river and i'd call with A3ss, A9ss, ATdd and TT FTWIW.

dont hesitate to tell me that my assumption for the river range is too far from the truth.

i'd bet bigger on the flop and turn. as played i am not to happy with an overbetjam.

i dont like 2.5x in the SB, i dont like the flop bet, i like the turn bet and i'd bet/decide the river. its blind vs blinds and ranges are wide, so x/folding is prolly to weak.

fold pre. one big fish doesnt turn Q9o into a good 4-way hand.

as played postflop is fine. utgs range includes a lot of AQ, KQ, QJs, JJ hands and we rarely get value from worse because our range is faced up when we lead.

i dont like the flop raise. he cant have too much here and the board is so dry. let him spew his stack off and just call!

as played its an obvious checkback on the turn.

i dont like the turn bet with literally no equity. you are just overstabbing in that spot if you fire with no pair no draw and 8 high.

lead flop imo

i'd open to 2.5bb because such a nitty player is folding a ton preflop so i increase my opening range and decrease my opening sizing if that makes sense.

btw we cannot shove if hj shoves and co calls because the hj can not make a valid raise anymore so the raising action is capped if we flat

i'd just 4bet pre. get it in vs the fish and if the CO folds his equity its okay for me as well.

why do you 3bet him so small preflop? he needs 27% equity to flat call here with a very wide range and you are 170bb deep. i´d 3bet to 7.50$-8.00$.

i agree with calldown > jam turn, absolutely

i think the J confused me a little bit because i thought it reduced his value combos, but on the other hand side he should slow down with his bluffs/overpairs because we easily can have AJ in our range. so i think you are right and we can fold AA here on the river. we have enough combos to call him down like JJ, 44, 55, 67s, so he can't exploit us when we fold AA here.