NL50 AA on the river bet for value or not?
Posted by Rogbey
Posted by
Rogbey
posted in
Low Stakes
NL50 AA on the river bet for value or not?
CO: 43.80
BN: 58.08 (Hero)
SB: 94.96
BB: 28.30
HJ: 53.55
BN: 58.08 (Hero)
SB: 94.96
BB: 28.30
HJ: 53.55
Villain is playing 25/19 over 4.9k hands. His fold to 3b v Hero is 48%, call 3b in MP is 40% and his RFI is 16%. His fold to CB in 3b pot is 50% but I expect him to call a bit wider versus me as we have quite a bit of history.
Preflop
(0.75)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
HJ raises to 1.50, CO folds, Hero raises to 4.50, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls 3
HJ raises to 1.50, CO folds, Hero raises to 4.50, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls 3
Flop
(9.75)
9
6
9
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets 5.50,
HJ calls 5.50
Flop is standard as we can get value from a lot of his range and I'd expect he to call some of his AQ, AJ type hands here.
Turn
(20.75)
9
6
9
7
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets 12,
HJ calls 12
I bet a little over half here setting up a river shove and still trying to get value from TT, JJ and some FDs he has.
River
(44.75)
9
6
9
7
Q
(2 Players)
HJ checks,
Hero bets 36.08, and is all in,
HJ calls 31.55, and is all in
This is were I am not sure. Even though we have history and he has seen me bluff him I am not sure if I am betting for value, what sort of hands can he have here? I know TT, JJ are in his range but it is a tough call on this river so AQss, KQss?? But then he also has 99, 9Ts & 89s... so what is the best play?
Final Pot
Hero has
A
A
HJ has
9
9
HJ
wins 104.85
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