1 limp UTG $300
Fish raises to $13 MP/LJ $250
Bttn calls $200
Hero has AQss on BB, I flat, think the raisers range is super narrow and strong here, maybe something like TT+, AQ+, AJs, KQs, maybe some AJo type stuff, but guessing not all, so like a 4%ish range.. , just didn't think this to be a great spot to squeeze into such a strong range.
Pot = $45
PFR bets $50
If I give him a range of AK/AJ in flopzilla, it says we have 25% here. Not sure why a FD has more than 18% on the turn.(flopzilla shows it having 20.45% on turn w FD's, and 36% on flop, so only 16% decrease from flop with bare FD's. I guess it's because there is one less card in deck?)
Not really sure how to calculate this if I'm being honest. We are getting 1:1.9. Our FD is worth 1:3.88. I feel like our J out is kinda meh, as it is drawing to a chop against AK/AJ. So not sure why Flopzilla suggests us having 25%, as not all our outs is for the full pot share. So on a spade only do we win full pot, and we have to donk on top of that. If we only have to win $50 on river for a break even, I can see that happening pretty easily, as we can just donk spades and prob get hero'd alot for 40-60% of the pot. But if we are only banking on a spade, we need to make like $100+. So I guess we can just fold this if A)he doesn't have bluffs, and B) he's unlikely to pay off a large bet on the river every time we improve here.
SPOILER: I ended up calling which in hindsight I think I can find a fold. On a K riv he barrelled like Pot and he showed JJ. I do think this is probably incredibly rare, but something relevant is if villain is the type to bluff turn, we don't get to show down our hand, so that diminishes our SDV.(altought I don't think we typically have SDV in this situation)