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Over-betting the river IP against a call

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Over-betting the river IP against a call

Attacking a capped range in position
PokerStars - $0.16 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

V – villain

Dealt to Hero:
Jd10s

SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls in the BB calls 2 BB

Flop (6 BB, 2 players):
5h 4h 4s
SB checks, Hero checks
Analysis
This is a paired board with low cards. I decided to check back since I do not have a flush draw and V would definitely call a flop bet with a flush draw. V would also call with over pairs, and some Broadway over cards. Hence, I did not feel that my fold equity is high in this spot. Also, I still have equity to realize on turn and river so I think it is better to check back in this spot.

Turn (6 BB, 2 players):
Ad
SB checks, Hero bets 4.31 BB, SB calls 4.31 BB
Analysis:
V checks again on Ace turn which caps his range. At this moment I have put V on a range that consist of mostly draws or junk: flush draw, straight draw, under pair, or two Broadway type of hands i.e., KQ off, KJ off, Q9 off etc.
I felt that Ace is unlikely to be in V`s range at this moment since he checked flop and turn. I decided to bet 75% pot to make V fold his flushes, straight and Broadway type of hands.
River: 5h 4h 4s Ad Qc

SB checks, Hero bets 20.94 BB, SB calls 20.94 BB

Analysis:
V checks again for the third time. At this moment I believe that V has Qx at best considering his line.
When you think of Vs range as whole at this moment:

Vs range that consist of junk: Busted flushes: KQ – K8, QJ – Q8, J9 – J8, 98, 87, (13 combos), Busted straights: 67 (1 combo), Broadway type of hands: off-suited KJ, K10, Q10 (3). I know that I block hands like K10 but they still may be in Vs range.
Vs range that consist of junk: 16 combos

Vs range that has a SDV: V may still have some Aces but not nutted ones: A9 – A6 (3 combos), KQ, QJ, Q10, and maybe Q9 (4 combos), some under pairs: 99 – 66, and maybe TT which I block anyway (4 combos).
Vs range that has a SDV: 11 combos

Basically, V has roughly combos without any SDV and 10 combos with SDV. Given my bet size (150% pot bet) and MDF. I have to make the V fold 60%, so V has to defend 40%.

11 combos in Vs range is exactly 40% of his range. However, given my bet sizing, V will not be blindly defending according to MDF. Therefore, he should fold anything apart from Ax and KQ. Given that I decided to make 150% over-bet expecting V to fold majority of his range. Unfortunately, V showed up with A9.

If I had 4x. I could either check the flop for range protection and to allow V to improve to the second best pair. However, Check makes little sense with a 4 OTF (range protection sometimes but not very often) - you want 3 streets for value as well as getting value from draws etc. Building the pot is kind of urgent with most 4x. If you bet tiny almost all other hands will continue like A high K high broadways etc. So you will get more value when they hit OTT

Can you tell me if my reasoning is ok, or Im missing something.
Thanks

Hero shows:

(One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 44%, Flop 22%, Turn 0%)
Js10d
SB shows:
9dAh
(Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
(Pre 56%, Flop 78%, Turn 100%)

SB wins 53.94 BB

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