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skip/calldown TP in 3B pot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

skip/calldown TP in 3B pot

BN: $384.67
SB: $202 (Hero)
BB: $202
UTG: $202.26
HJ: $602.20
CO: $214.14
Villains is opening CO 30%, ft3b is about 55%, ft cbet in 3bp is 36% and stab vs skipped cbet in 3bp is 56%
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J K
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $4.80, BN folds, Hero raises to $16.40, BB folds, CO calls $11.60
Flop ($35.80) 3 K 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18, Hero calls $18
I dont think I can get 3 streets of value, so I have to check one street. The problem is that I want to bluff this board alot, so I guess I could bet the flop and start checking on the turn. What do you think?
Turn ($71.80) 3 K 2 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $42, Hero calls $42
River ($155.80) 3 K 2 3 A (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $137.74, and is all in, Hero calls $125.60, and is all in
On the river I split with KQ and the flushdraw busted. He could have rivered some TPs with Axdd, but these are not that many combos.

I guess my call on the river depends if he is starting to barrel hands like AQo and AJo on the flop.
If he is barreling all wheel Aces, A6s+ in diamonds and AJo it is a close call.

Board: 2d3c3hKdAs
Equity Win Tie
UTG 32.43% 29.73% 2.70% { KcJh }
UTG+1 67.57% 64.86% 2.70% { AKs, A5s-A2s, KQs, AdQd, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, 8d6d, 7d6d, AJo }

Ingame I figured that it is more likely that he is checking back his strong Ax hands like AQ, to realize some sd value or potentially bluff them later in the hand.

What do you guys think?

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