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LIVE POKER - 5/5 PLO AA w/ NFD facing turn bet in 3bet Pot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

LIVE POKER - 5/5 PLO AA w/ NFD facing turn bet in 3bet Pot

5/5 PLO
Lo-Jack - Regular - $3k *Pretty solid regular. Better than most live regs. Playing pretty tight preflop. Thinking about ranges and playing good aggressive
HJ - Hero - $1.5k - Ad As 6d 6s

Preflop:
Btn straddle, 3 limps, LJ raises to $60. Hero re-raises to $220, LJ calls.

Flop($480): Kd 3c 9h
LJ checks, Hero checks

Turn: Qd
LJ bets $325, Hero??? So

Preflop standard I think. On the flop with an SPR of around 3, I elect to check back. I feel like with 2 bdfd's, I would maybe just pot/gii. Probably be close, but with just 1, I want to check back. I think villain's range is really strong for potting to $60 from the LJ. I see him in his raising strategy preflop having 2 sizes, 1 smaller raise size and 1 potting preflop size. So I think on this board, he has a lot of hands like KKxx, KQJTss or KQJTds, KQ98ds, ect...So I check back.

On the turn, you guys might find it silly I am considering anything but calling, but vs JT or KK here, I have around 19% vs JT and KK. That means doing the math, I need to win around .98 pot size bets on the river to break even. But after I call the turn, I think a lot of villains will put me on AA w/ diamonds. I think the perception is that KK would bet the flop a lot. AAJT from me would probably be just betting flop. So I am pretty pessimistic that he would be c/c'ing basically at least half pot on the river often enough to where I make money in the long run. Plus, if the river is a 3d or 9d, I have very bad visibility and could still be beat or it would be very difficult to give value from worse on that card. It is possible a 3 could come and it goes check/check and I win, but that's assuming that if I have the best hand on a 3, that he doesn't bluff river and push me off the best hand. What do guys think?

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