I was studying preflop ranges in monker solver, UTG vs Btn and taking a look at which hands want to 3bet/flat. While I was studying I came across something rather interesting I don't understand and would like you guys' input. After facing a UTG pot raise, with "Connected A-high non-broadway, suited ace" hands, Hero is flating 19.2% and 3betting 1.3%. Hero is flatting/3betting hands like AJ97ss, AT97ss, AT98ss, A976ss, ect… on the btn. Okay, makes sense. Hero has 45% equity with a hand like AT98ss vs UTG range and has position and will be able to realize most equity, or over realize equity here.
After, MP+CO cold calls, Hero is mostly folding all of those hands as stated above! It took me by surprise at first, especially since the Solver is not squeezing much from the blinds after 4 players are in the pot, but again it now makes sense. MP is cold calling the 6-10 percentile of hands optimally, and CO is calling the 5-8 percentile of hands optimally, so now Hero only has 22.63% equity 4-way with AT98ss, and can easily be dominated playing against such strong of ranges.
But, fish don't play optimally, so I tweaked the ranges to 1%-19% utg, 6%-40% MP, 5%-50% to illustrate more how a fish soft game might play, and too my surprise 4-way so far, we only have 23.88% equity while MP has 24.02%, and CO has 23.63%! I would have thought with a dominating suit and connectedness that we would be pushing more equity than that. Without UTG, we still only have 34% vs the 2 fishes' ranges. In game, I am always calling in these spots (with the hands above) because I feel like we have higher implied odds than an optimal strategy vs the 2 fish players. I would be probably be calling hands like A765ss and playing cautiously IP. With 2 fish callers, is my assumptions that this is a profitable call because I'm netting more EV when I hit my hand probably, or is my thinking too ambitious and I should be folding and only expanding my calling range from optimal only a little bit. An optimal strategy with this hand category is folding 96.9%% on the btn in the multi-way scenario where vs just the utg, its only folding 79.5%. Pretty big difference I would think. What do you think about these spots? From a theory perspective with the loose fish callers in between, should we be flatting the hands above, or is it too ambitious and we will have to play too straight forward and we should be folding?
April 14, 2019 | 9:42 p.m.
BB - $39 - Random recreational
CO - $24 - Seems to have a high VPIP
HJ - Hero - $50 - Qs Qd Jd 6s
Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls, BB calls, 3-way to the flop
Flop ($5.75): Ah Ts 2s
BB checks, Hero checks, Btn bets pot for $5.75, BB folds, Hero???
First of all, I am in my first orbit playing on Global Poker and I don't have either the BB or CO tagged. Have seen the BB limp once so far in the two hands I have played before. I would assume more often than not that CO is a recreational vs pro short stacker based on the fact it is very rare for me to see a pro short stacker at 50 PLO on Global.
Post flop, AT2tt does seem like a good board for me, but checking and keeping the pot smaller with a non-nutted hand seems best to me because if we get flop raised by either player (which seems will happen more freq, them both being shorter stacked than 100 bb's+), than we will be folding quite a bit of equity, where we could comfortably c/c a bet of around $3. I guess the advantage of betting is we do get some added FE vs shitty Ax hands. What do yal think about flop?
We check though and CO bets Pot. Maybe villain does this with AT, TT, 22, A2, maybe Kss with bad showdown value, some Axss with weak SD value, ect…This spot seems close to me because we are drawing to the non nuts, but still have around 50% equity vs parts of his range like bare AT/A2 or 58% vs bare TT, but we do have low visibility on spade runouts, Q is prob a pretty good one but maybe some reverse implied odds on. Sometimes if we hit and CO checks back, we can value bet, so that helps out the profitability of calling, but if we hit the turn and CO keeps betting, that also gives us some reverse implied odds unless we are always folding on a s turn. What do you guys think?
April 5, 2019 | 3:31 p.m.
Hi there Run It Once! Just wanted to leave some feedback about my coaching experience with Nick Johnson if any you guys are thinking about getting coaching from him. Before I started getting coaching from him, I was playing $0.10/$0.25 PLO. After going through his coaching, I was successfully beating 50 PLO, and playing 100 PLO. I also grinded 2/5 and 5/10 nlh for years in Live poker, but after going to play some sessions at 5/5 PLO, I felt lost about what to do especially preflop in the heavily multi-way dynamics, and I requested to spend 2 hours of my coaching time with Nick to ask him specific questions about Live PLO. What I did was write down any hand I got dealt in Live PLO for a session I wasn't sure I was making the right play preflop or postflop in notepad on my phone. Then, in our Skype session, I ran through different hands on the list having a great discussion that lead me to feel very confident in my decision making in Live PLO. I got an insane amount of value out of these 2 hours! :) I also, really like Nick's format for reviewing online coaching videos as well. You shoot footage and send it in to Nick, and he does a voice over with his thought process about your play, and charges you by the hour of footage he sends back. I found this format extremely helpful because by hearing Nick's thought process about the situations helped me align my own thought process to be closer to Nick's in those spots. I found that trying to better understand "Why" you are doing things is the ultimate goal and makes the game much easier to grasp. I also gained a much deeper understanding of situations as well! Thanks for the coaching Nick and if your thinking of taking Nick's coaching, do it! I believe it is a great investment ^.^
March 21, 2019 | 4:17 p.m.
Hi guys. I was looking through some preflop spots in Monker Solver and came across something I wanted to understand a little more and maybe there is a leak in my thought process. Here is Monker Solver's fold KK % in BB vs (excluding KKK and KKKK)
CO raise, btn folds, SB folds, BB folds KK 0%
CO raise, btn calls, SB folds, BB folds KK 0%
CO raise, btn calls, SB calls, BB folds KK 12.9%
My guess seeing this is that still 3-way when you have a K flush blocker on a 3 flush card flop/turn, you win more EV 3-way in those spots being able to get folds, but 4-way, your forced to play a little more straight forward. Maybe same goes for boards like QJT or QJ9, maybe your able to capitalize some more EV bluffing 3-way or HU, but you have to play straight forward 4-way or more. Also, I'm guessing that when the money goes in 4-way, your less likely to be in good shape? This is assuming optimal players I'm guessing from monker, but I'm guessing you can defend any KK multi-way in the BB with fish involved. But what is interesting is that Monker is still folding hands like KK92, Kss at a 52% frequency even though you have a K high suit.
What do you guys think about this? Can any of yal elaborate on more reasons for this? I want to understand the profitability of pairs the most in situations like this because I feel like that is a big part of Live PLO and even if it is a limped pot in PLO and not much raising, I want to better understand if I should be folding hands like KK92:Kss preflop from MP or EP depending on the tables.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 5:54 p.m.
BB - Hero - $1100 - Ad 6d 3s 4c
UTG - Tight passive fish - $1600
UTG+1 - Good Regular - $1000
UTG+2 - Whale - $1500
UTG+3 - Random recreational - $1000 - (new to table, no reads, never played with him)
HJ - Whale - $1500
CO - Loose aggressive regular - $2200
Btn - Passive fish - $650
SB - Fishy tag player - $1000 - loose from blinds, but playing tighter than other players
SB calls, Hero calls $3, UTG+1 calls $5, UTG+2 calls $5, UTG+3 raises to $15, HJ calls $15, CO calls $15, Btn folds, SB calls $10, Hero calls $10, UTG+1 calls $5, UTG+2 calls $5.
Flop($110): 9d 5s 2d (7 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, UTG+3 bets $50, HJ calls $50, CO calls $50, SB calls $50, Hero?
In this spot, my first inclination is to call since I have good odds + can overflush someone on the turn. But if I do hit a flush, I'm not sure how likely I am to get paid off since this is a 7-way pot on the flop. I think players are capable of laying down bare 95 on the flop, bare wraps, and probably sometimes even 22. Whenever players have the nuts, I have often seen them just pot it on the flop. Kind of leads me to believe UTG+3 probably doesn't have a set or at most bottom set and I think 99/55 would flop raise from any of the remaining players as well. I'm wondering if its better to just pot now for $410, or if you think its more +EV to call. I think another benefit of raising is that bare wraps without a FD will probably just fold the flop right now. But like I said, benefits of calling or cheap price and keeping in worse flush draws in the hand as well. What do you think is better here?
Jan. 5, 2019 | 4:33 a.m.
Players and Reads:
SB - HERO - $500 - Qc Qs 6c 2h
CO - Wide aggro fish - $3000
*Seen open raise J874ts (triple suited) LJ preflop
*Overall, very splashy and aggressive in a lot of spots that are a bit spewy
UTG limping fish - $90
UTG+2 fish: $600
UTG limps, UTG+2 limps, CO raises to $30, Hero calls $25, UTG shoves, UTG+2 folds, CO raises pot (shove), Hero???
First off, UTG lost a pot the hand or 2 before, and I missed that he was that short. Thought he still had a normal stack and I wanted to pill from the BB in a 4-way pot, maybe 5-way pot. With his short stack, I would have folded preflop. That being said, as played I kind of feel like this guy is really just shoving everything over the fishes small shove preflop. I haven't played a ton in these Live PLO cash games, so I know that is an assumption I am making, but what do you guys think?
Jan. 4, 2019 | 2:02 p.m.
I played this session yesterday, and picked up some hands preflop that I wasn't 100% on my play. Would really love some feedback. Thanks guys.
Seat 1: Loose passive fish (pots when he has a big hand and otherwise is just checking and calling mostly) - $1500
Seat 2: Splashy preflop, sometimes raises really trashy hands pre, bad bluffs post without blockers, calls too light - $700
Seat 3: Hero - $1000
Seat 7: Good aggressive thinking reg - $2000
1) 8 players. LJ (low jack) straddles. Hero is HJ with 5544ss. Hero ???
2) 3 limpers. SB checks.Hero BB with AKJT, Kss. Raise or check?
3) 9 players. Btn straddle. SB limps, Seat 1 limps BB, Seat 2 limps, Hero utg+1 with Kc Jc Td 4d. Hero??? 1 or 2 recreational players behind me have in the $500-$700 stack region, but the rest of players have $1000 or more in their stacks.
What would you do in these hands?
1) If I had 7722ss, I would fold or even 7744ss I would be folding, but this seems closer to me since we have the connectedness. Online I would be opening UTG for sure, but not sure in this Live setting. The hand will often go 4-6 way I believe. Flopping bottom set in this scenario won't be too good for me, but its possible for some players to pay off a little lighter if I do hit, so seems close. What are you guy's thoughts?
2) I lean towards raise since we have 4 big cards and a K high suit, but I believe we have 0 fold equity and this pot will often go 5-way and I'll be OOP vs 3 players. This could be good if i hit and it is easier to get stacks in, but without the nut suit, I'm not sure if the "nuttiness" of my combo is good enough to be raising with little to no fold equity preflop.
3) This one is interesting because with the K and J of the same suit, and not being able to effectively isolate the pot, I feel like I should fold preflop vs pot raise. I don't want to limp because there is a bit too much raising going on in the game preflop vs some other passive 5/5 games I have played in. I do like some smaller raises with parts of my range that benefit and balance that with weak AAxx, but wandering with 2 limpers for $10 each, if its worth raising my hand to $20 or $25?
Jan. 3, 2019 | 2:34 p.m.
Okay, thanks Phil! That makes a lot of sense ^.^
Dec. 7, 2018 | 2:37 a.m.
Btn fish - $1k
CO straddle - $1k - First hand at table. Very buff guy around age 38-40. When he looked at his hand, I saw an 8 in it lol.
HJ - Hero - $1.1k - AhQhQsJh
CO straddle, Btn limps, folds to Hero, Hero raises to $40, CO calls, Btn calls
Flop($135): Ks Qd 9h
Hero checks, CO bets pot, Btn folds, Hero calls
Hero checks, CO bets $405, Hero???
There is $825 left in stacks. Don't know anything about this player. If I didn't have the J blocker, I would be snap folding, but whenever I see a really buff middle age guy, I would think more often than not, he could be going crazy here with a TT98 hand or TT8x hand. I did actually see a black 8 in his hand preflop when he didn't guard his hand. So he could have JT8x here exactly, but I'm wondering if you guys 1) Think I have a hand that is profitable to continue with here for call or shove 2) If we didn't see an 8 in his hand, what would you be doing here?
Dec. 7, 2018 | 12:08 a.m.
Lo-Jack - Regular - $3k *Pretty solid regular. Better than most live regs. Playing pretty tight preflop. Thinking about ranges and playing good aggressive
HJ - Hero - $1.5k - Ad As 6d 6s
Btn straddle, 3 limps, LJ raises to $60. Hero re-raises to $220, LJ calls.
Flop($480): Kd 3c 9h
LJ checks, Hero checks
LJ bets $325, Hero??? So
Preflop standard I think. On the flop with an SPR of around 3, I elect to check back. I feel like with 2 bdfd's, I would maybe just pot/gii. Probably be close, but with just 1, I want to check back. I think villain's range is really strong for potting to $60 from the LJ. I see him in his raising strategy preflop having 2 sizes, 1 smaller raise size and 1 potting preflop size. So I think on this board, he has a lot of hands like KKxx, KQJTss or KQJTds, KQ98ds, ect...So I check back.
On the turn, you guys might find it silly I am considering anything but calling, but vs JT or KK here, I have around 19% vs JT and KK. That means doing the math, I need to win around .98 pot size bets on the river to break even. But after I call the turn, I think a lot of villains will put me on AA w/ diamonds. I think the perception is that KK would bet the flop a lot. AAJT from me would probably be just betting flop. So I am pretty pessimistic that he would be c/c'ing basically at least half pot on the river often enough to where I make money in the long run. Plus, if the river is a 3d or 9d, I have very bad visibility and could still be beat or it would be very difficult to give value from worse on that card. It is possible a 3 could come and it goes check/check and I win, but that's assuming that if I have the best hand on a 3, that he doesn't bluff river and push me off the best hand. What do guys think?
Dec. 6, 2018 | 11:57 p.m.
Stack sizes on flop:
BB - $48.75 - Hero - Ac5c5h8h
UTG - $52.45 - Limping recreational player - No reads
CO - $95 - Losse passive recreational player
UTG limps, CO raises to $2.25, Hero calls, UTG calls
Flop: ($7) Kc Qd 5s
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $7, Hero calls $7, UTG calls $7
Turn: ($28) 7h
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $14, Hero???
Hero has $39.50 left behind. Should we be calling, folding, or jamming here?
Preflop, I generally play pretty tight from the blinds, but trying to open up a little bit more and this hand seems like a profitable defend with an Ace high suit and set potential. But it gets a little dicy on this texture. If this a good defend preflop?
On the flop, I face a pot size bet. I consider folding, but a lot of KQ combos could potential play like this too, so I feel like calling flop and folding to another large bet on the turn. The utg limper calls which could possible be a slow play with QQ or KK, but can also be KQ or any number of straight draws.
On the turn, we check to the PFR and he bets half pot. This makes me feel a little better about my hand since a lot of recreational players will bet a sizing in accordance to their hand strength, but its still possible he could have a higher set, but be trying to price in smaller ones and 2 pairs since their isn't a lot of money left behind. Here, should I be jamming for value from KQ? Or just calling and seeing how it plays how? Which seems a little weird because we will def have some bad visibility on some rivers? What do yal think about this spot?
Nov. 25, 2018 | 5:12 p.m.
Global Poker 50 PLO
Stack Sizes Flop:
BB - $75 - Recreational player
UTG - Hero - $50.73 - Qh Qs 4h 3s
Btn - 82.40 Recreational Player
Hero raises to $1.75, Btn calls $1.75, BB calls $1.25
Flop: ($5.50) Qc 8h 6d
BB checks, Hero checks, Btn bets $5.50, BB calls $5.50, Hero raises to $21, Btn calls, BB folds
Turn: ($53) 9c
On the flop, without backup really I decided to check 3-way and go for a c/r if IP bet. That way I can dramatically lower the SPR and deny quite a bit of equity. What I'm unsure about with the line I took if its better to c/r pot to $27.50 or if my sizing is alright to $21? Am I giving too good of a price to call for hands like JT9x?
On the turn, there is $53 in the middle and I have $29.73 behind. 3 different straights completed, so he will probably have a straight pretty often. If I check, I feel if he has a worse hand, he's probably very often checking back and I don't really induce too much, but maybe he just goes ahead and sticks it in with a hand like 9887? But if I bet, I think lower sets with a SD will definitely call it off? Should I be just jamming here, C/c'ing, or C/foldind? Should I have just pot'ed it on the flop to make my turn decision easier, or was my sizing better in the long run to make sure worse hands than mine continue to the turn?
Nov. 25, 2018 | 4:55 p.m.
Global Poker 50 PLO
Stack Sizes on Flop:
MP - Hero - $48.50 - As Kc Th 7s
Btn - $47.50
SB - $33.50
BB - $47.25
UTG limper - $159.75
*All the other players in the pot are recreational players. Not too many reads yet in 2nd orbit
UTG limps, Hero raises to $2.25, Btn calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls
Flop: ($11.25) Ah Ks 8d
Checks to Hero, Hero bet $5.75
Should Hero be c-betting here for protection/value? Hero can get called maybe by A8 and QJTx, but other than that, prob only hands like sets will be continuing. Hero doesn't have much back up if someone has a set, but we probably have good equity I imagine on the flop, and don't necessarily want players to catch up to a hand like an OESFD on the turn or hitting a set. I bet half pot here, but open to hear arguments for other sizings. What do yal think about this spot?
Nov. 24, 2018 | 4:21 p.m.
Global Poker 50 PLO
SB - $51 Recreational Player I’ve seen limp a few times
BB - $50 - Hero - As Qs 8s 5c
SB raise to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00
Flop ($3.00) Kc Qd 5h
SB bets $3.00, Hero?
Im debating whether to call or fold, but fold seems way too tighter on flop, but could I just fold flop. If I calk flop and face a turn barrel, then I’m basically folding turn. Even if he has wrap hand and pots turn, Im prob still out. What do yal think?
Nov. 23, 2018 | 7:01 p.m.
Global Poker 50 PLO:
CO - $78 - Aggro Fish Player
BTN - $50 - Tight Aggressive Regular in these games playing on 4 tables
BB - $62 - Hero - Ad Jd Ts 9d
CO raises to $1.75, Btn calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.25
Flop ($5.23) Jh 8d 4c
BB checks, CO checks, Btn bets $3.50, Hero raises to $12, Btn raises to $38, Hero?
So, preflop my hand seems good enough to defend, especially with JT9 doing well multi-way and having a nut suit even though we have 3 diamonds. On the flop, I think its better to check because with the dry texture, it would make sense for CO and Btn's range to have nuttier wrap hands on this board and have more equity overall. But I decide to check, and the PFR checks and the btn bets $3.50. I can see him doing this with QQ, KK hands, 2p, sets, wraps, TP + GS, SD + 2 BDFD's. My first big question here is do you think its better to check raise here or to call? My decision here was to check raise, because I think we can get a lot of folds from overpairs without much backup. Some top pairs without too much going on, and maybe if he is over stabbing IP with air. If he calls, I would think on a turn card that is too scary, I could bet him off his draw. I would expect a lot more hands from him to connect with the J and the 8 vs the 8 and the 4, so even though I would be super thrilled by a 5 or a 6, I might be jamming turn on some of those. Not too sure honestly on my game plan on every runout, but with a lot of pot equity against most hands, blocking his most likely set, JJ, and be able to capture some immediate fold equity from hands like KK/QQ, I feel check raising can't be too bad, but I'm interested in your thoughts or different opinions.
Now, worst case scenario happens, and he re-raises pretty big. Do we call/call here or go ahead and rip it? Vs a set we have in the ball park of 27-30% equity. Vs KQJ8, we have 54% equity. Vs QJT9 we have 66% equity. A lot of more regular players here can be pretty fishy, and don't put it past them to be doing something funky at 50 PLO, but looking for you guy's thoughts.
Nov. 17, 2018 | 8:56 p.m.
Thanks for your reply! That makes a lot of sense and I like your approach. Maybe if I was super certain in #1 My opponents are bluffing enough whenever I check back to make a higher EV check back/call line and #2 My own abilities in playing well if I checked back, maybe checking back would be better. But, betting 50-60% pot makes a lot of sense to me know like your saying because I prevent myself from making mistakes in the hand while also taking a clearly profitable line. There is also the X factor and if my opponent is calling way wider than they should OOP, then I have even higher EV than I expect when betting. Didn't think of it posting it, but I can def see a lot of fish calling bare QT and T8 on this board too with not much else. Run into it all the time. Will def add this strategy to my game. Thanks again.
Nov. 12, 2018 | 2:44 p.m.
Your welcome. Really in love with the game and hungry to get better. A lot of the high stakes Live NLH action in Florida has dried up and the games are pretty reggy, so looking to transition to playing PLO. NLH has gotten really stale for me too and pretty boring, so I find just the whole learning process and thinking through the theory very enjoyable :) Btw, when replying to a post, how do you TAG someone so there name is highlighted?
Nov. 12, 2018 | 2:34 p.m.
Btn - $47.00 - Loose splashy fish
SB - $50.00 - Hero - As 7c 2d Ah
BB - $14.55 - Don't know too much, but seems like a rec player playing loose preflop
Btn raises to $1.45, Hero calls $0.95, BB raises to $5.80, Btn calls $5.80, SB raises to $23.20, BB goes all-in, Btn calls
Flop: ($57.45) Tc 7d 6s
Hero has $26.30 left behind, slightly less than half. Villain could have some rundown hands I'm basically dead against if he has 98. I think he is calling widely. I def would like to deny equity from a hand like AKQT, or KQJT by shoving. But with so much money in the middle, I'm prob not getting those hands to fold. Vs KKQT, I'm doing really well against, but could get him to fold that equity. Not sure if I check though, how often he will actually try to bluff with the BB already all in. Should I be shoving to deny equity, or be check/folding here?
Nov. 10, 2018 | 4:33 p.m.
Okay, what would be your game plan on the flop? If a rec player donks and PFR or Btn calls, you would just call here with 8 clean outs and 4 set cards (helps though hitting a set and blocking the straight with other pair)?
I guess the way I was looking at it is from a Hold'em player mentality. Your right, I would say I am definitely overestimating my fold equity. On first guess, I thought my FE was maybe around 15-20% in hand. I'm just okay, I have around 42% equity and my equity is really good vs a set or two pair, so if I get folds 15-20%, its pretty profitable. But maybe realistically vs the wide ranges in play, maybe I have 5-7% FE on flop? Even so, I would be slightly profitable I would think? But if it is, it seems very close to break even. I'm guessing check/calling and seeing a turn is more profitable? You get to see if the board is going to pair or if you hit your hand, maybe keeping in more players?
From Holdem, not really used to playing cautiously when I have that much equity. Just used to playing super aggro. I think I'm a little confused understanding the profitability here in the different directions the game tree will take c/c'ing here. say if you c/c vs one player and the turn comes a 3. Would you donk lead here? What about vs a fish donk + PFR call IP and turn is a 3? Would you lead or check?
Nov. 10, 2018 | 2 p.m.
So basically your saying betting 1/2 pot or slightly bigger is the better option. It only needs to work 33% - 40% depending on your sizing and with the Ad, you have a really good blocker to their continuing range. How often (%) do you think villain has a flush here on the turn?
Nov. 10, 2018 | 1:46 p.m.
BB - $50 - Hero 7c7s8s8d
UTG - $38 - Limper
MP - $48 - Limper
CO - $63 - Tight aggressive player
BTN - $42 - Around 44/26 stats
UTG limps, MP limps, CO raises to $2.75, Btn calls, Hero calls BB, UTG calls, MP calls
Flop (~$13) Qs 6d 5h
Hero bets $13
Alright...just had to be funny with the title haha. But seriously, wondering if donk pot/calling here is a good play? I think most players will fold 1 pair+ here and our equity vs a set is 41% and vs 2p 42%. If we have no fold equity, we need 44.44% pot equity to stack off here. Do you think we get enough folds to pot here? Or do you think its more +EV to try and check ship here? The only problem is if everyone plays straight up in this 5-way pot and checks to the preflop raiser, then he will probably be checking a lot and the Btn will prob check at a high freq though.
Nov. 9, 2018 | 10:39 p.m.
Okay, I like that. What would be your turn sizing? If your betting for protection mostly and setting yourself a good price, are you betting 1/3rd pot here? Or half pot? If we bet 1/3rd pot or 1/2 pot and the river is a Q, I'm guessing we would "bluff" this hand, but if the river is say a 2, then we would check?
Also, I know you think its more +EV to bet small on turn/check back river with this particular hand than to pot/pot, but if we did pot/pot with blockers, do you think we win money in the long run doing that or are we spewing money?
Nov. 9, 2018 | 1:23 p.m.
UTG - $35 Roughly 55/30 over 1-2 orbits
Btn - $62 (Hero) Ad Qh 9h Jc
BB - $50 - Roughly 50/18 over 2-3 orbits
UTG raises to $1.75, Hero calls btn, BB calls
Flop ($5.37) Jd 9d 4s
BB checks, UTG checks, Btn bets $3.86, BB calls.
Turn ($13.09) 5d
BB checks, Hero???
Preflop my play could be a little questionable. I played this hand yesterday and don't remember the exact stats and forgot to take a picture (my laptop with hand converter software is getting repaired. Doing my best taking pictures of replayer). Utg seemed to have a loose range, and both blinds seemed like recreational players where I could play my position well. Maybe this hand is just a fold though without the A high suit. I know if I had the J high suit, I would snap fold preflop. Even if it is a bad preflop call, I think the theme of the hand postflop is interesting.
My main question is what are the strongest made hands in Hero's range with the single NF blocker that Hero should start bluffing with on the turn here? Villain defends 3-way vs my flop c-bet OOP, so I know his range is probably strong here. He probably has quite a few weak flushes with a pair+gs or medium flushes with the K high flush or Q high flush. I block J9xx with my hand but he probably is weighted more towards hands like KQT9, QT98, KJT8. I guess there is a lot more combos of single suit hands like this that don't necessarily have 2 diamonds, but I feel like villain could have a lot of basically every K high diamonds and Q high diamonds hands in his range, and all the low ones that have other components. Thinking about it rationally, my guess would be his range is like 50-66% flushes on this turn and 33-50% pair+wrap hands. From a game theory perspective, I imagine if I bluff this hand, I would be theoretically over bluffing. But, I don't like the idea of checking back where he could auto bluff his missed wrap hands. I guess I'm giving up the pot if he bets because I would assume the population maybe only bluffs the river 50% of the time, and villain could potentially check a weak two pair that doesn't have much showdown instead of bluffing (like 95). I also, have the NF blocker, so its possible he could even fold the K high flush on the river to a pot bet (maybe a 50% freq). Probably the Q high one at a 50-75% frequency. And probably low flushes at a 70-90% freq. Do you think I am overestimating my fold equity, or do you think I'm about right?
What do you guys think about this spot?