PLO200 - 3bet pot w ini - ovp postflop

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PLO200 - 3bet pot w ini - ovp postflop

Hello

PLO200

Hero (CO): €427.80
BTN: €350.05 (VPIP: 40.24, PFR: 4.28, 3Bet Preflop: 2.75, Hands: 5,350)
SB: €250.23 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BB: €193.00 (VPIP: 27.84, PFR: 18.41, 3Bet Preflop: 7.42, Hands: 14,425)
UTG: €200.00 (VPIP: 49.38, PFR: 38.00, 3Bet Preflop: 18.66, Hands: 7,071)
MP: €581.52 (VPIP: 30.35, PFR: 19.24, 3Bet Preflop: 9.62, Hands: 8,654)

SB posts SB €1.00, BB posts BB €2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €3.00) Hero has Qs Ad 8h Ac

UTG raises to €7.00, fold, Hero raises to €24.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls €17.00

Flop: (€51.00, 2 players) Kh 9d 4c
UTG checks, Hero bets €38.00, UTG calls €38.00

Turn: (€127.00, 2 players) Ts
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (€127.00, 2 players) Ks
UTG bets €118.00, fold

UTG wins €242.00

...

UTG LAG very good reg
nb : his stats include HU, that he plays overaggressively.
Moreover, he'd got some tilt periods when he played a spewy/hyperLAG style
His "standard SH stats" would be some 40/30/14 I'd say

PREFLOP

std. even if AAxx not top (rainbow unfortunately), but with Q8 it's not awful, I've position and we play 100bb deep, so 3bet more than std

he folds absolutely nothing vs 3bet

FLOP

very dry flop, two "high" cards

cbet std

TURN

when he calls flop on a dry flop, I don't like this.
He's aggro/gambly, I think in this spot he would have c/r almost all his QTJx, Kxxx+GS. maybe his 9xxx+GS too.
Maybe he's peeling (oop) with some dry pair (Kxxx, some 9xxx maybe).
But when hes opraising UTG with a Kxxx or a 9xxx, it's a quite tight range, that mean often high ranked, and a minimum connected.
So when he got Kxxx, he'll often have broadways with, and so a GS with.

That I'm fearing is that on such a dry board, he could be easily trapping with a set (KKxx is the set the more present in his range), or even K9xx (even if with K9xx, his DP need a little more protection. there're some turns he wouldn't like to see. all broadways typically. I think he c/r allways DP, my history vs him i've reads that he almost never slowplay DP here.).
... anyway, checking a monstro on this dry board.

Get a SPR~1 turn and let me giving my stack when I'll barell turn on blanks (and there're numerous blank).

seems paranoid ?

...

well, on this T I don't know.

I've got one blocker on the straight.
've myself a nut GS (+ovp) now.
p+GS (that now are straight or DP) and wraps would have c/r the flop I think.
... i don't think I've FE vs DP (and vs a straight, even less).

and steal fearing about sets slowplayed.

don't know what to do.
betting here accomplish just to take value/protection vs random Kxxx (but I don't think tons of Kxxx raised UTG that aren't minimum DP here), and value/protection vs some draws coming turn (789x etc...)

River

well, likely he's not having KKxx too much now
but K9xx (even if i think he'd c/r it flop), 99xx, 9QJx are ahead now.

Randoms Kxxx peeling flop too (even if, once again, I don't see many Kxxx that opr UTG and didn't make p+GS or DP or set on this flop)

Things I'm beating now are 9xxx, 9Txx counterfeited... he could have it sometimes maybe.

moreover on my perceveid range, I've some Kxxx (big AKxx, Kxxx+broadways) that I could play this way, and AAxx obv.
But if he's got nothing, or a 9xxx (that never win), it could be tempting to bet, after the weakness I've showed

... 'm really lost here.

sizing... here his sizing patterns are allways loud river. or he check, or he bets loud (few times some tricky 35% pot sizing, allways small value, but it's rare).
I'd say in showdowns I saw vs him (history), it was mostly value (value nut or value more thin like low flushes in some spots, but most part of the time is value).
Moreover, globally I think it's a player who play aggro preflop, has a degen image, is aware of it, and use to play with ranges more strong than expected, and get lots of implied postflop.
... don't know if those "reads" are very useful here... maybe yes by the fact he's more tight than his stats/style can show at first time

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