Thin River Spot: Best Line?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Thin River Spot: Best Line?

HJ: $0
CO: $478.40
BN: $374.55
SB: $400
BB: $956.40
UTG: $312
LJ: $489 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q J J K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $14, CO folds, BN calls $14, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($34.00) A 9 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $24, BN calls $24
Turn ($82.00) T (2 Players)
Hero bets $68, BN calls $68
River ($218.00) 8 (2 Players)
Hey guys -

Villain is 29/15 3b of 5, WTSD is 23. We don’t have any specific history, although I have 1.6k hands on him and he’s beating these games at a solid clip.

I think most people would agree that the flop and turn are standard/fine. But there’s a lot of valid options on the river, so which is best? check/fold, bet/fold, bet/call, check/call?

Be sure when thinking this through that you take into consideration how he would play his draws on earlier streets, and how that affects flush combos later on… And how made hand heavy or draw heavy his range is.

River SPR is 1.25 fwiw

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